Testing autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation: Asymptotic methods versus resampling techniques

Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation, which provide a mathematical tool to understand repeating patterns in time series data, are often used to facilitate the identification of model orders of time series models (e.g., moving average and autoregressive models). Asymptotic methods for testing autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation such as the 1/T approximation method and the Bartlett's formula method may fail in finite samples and are vulnerable to non-normality. Resampling techniques such as the moving block bootstrap and the surrogate data method are competitive alternatives. In this study, we use a Monte Carlo simulation study and a real data example to compare asymptotic methods with the aforementioned resampling techniques. For each resampling technique, we consider both the percentile method and the bias-corrected and accelerated method for interval construction. Simulation results show that the surrogate data method with percentile intervals yields better performance than the other methods. An R package pautocorr is used to carry out tests evaluated in this study.     

Central Asia as the economic and geopolitical tension nexus: Some implications for the world futures

During the last millennium the world economic and geopolitical conflicts were to a great extent connected: different crises in the World System's evolution stimulated geopolitical shifts and vice versa. This article argues that in the 15th century different geopolitical events and conflicts in Central Asia initiated the fall of the previous World System and the rise of the new one. This transformation resulted in the fall of overland and river trade routes, including the Great Silk Route, which passed through Central Asia. World trade shifted to sea and ocean routes, and European countries became the center of the new World System. Now, in the beginning of the 21st century a new transformation of the World System is underway. The center of economic and political development is migrating gradually to the East: this is why the geopolitical role of the Central Asian states is increasing. Central Asian states are a very important part of the New Silk Route; this route is to connect Eastern Asia with Europe and the Middle East. The United States, China, Russia, and other states are ardently competing to control the New Silk Route. Hence, different geopolitical, social, and military conflicts are probable in Central Asia. So economic and political integration in Eurasia between Russia, China, the United States and Central Asian states is very important for the geopolitical stabilization of the region. The article evaluates the main scenarios of geopolitical changes in Central Asia.     

The learning benefits of teaching: A retrieval practice hypothesis

Teaching educational materials to others enhances the teacher's own learning of those to‐be‐taught materials, although the underlying mechanisms remain largely unknown. Here, we show that the learning‐by‐teaching benefit is possibly a retrieval benefit. Learners (a) solved arithmetic problems (i.e., they neither taught nor retrieved; control group), (b) taught without relying on teaching notes (i.e., they had to retrieve the materials while teaching; teaching group), (c) taught with teaching notes (i.e., they did not retrieve the materials while teaching; teaching without retrieval practice [TnRP] group), or (d) retrieved (i.e., they did not teach but only practised retrieving; retrieval practice group). In a final comprehension test 1 week later, learners in the teaching group, as did those in the retrieval practice group, outperformed learners in the TnRP and control groups. Retrieval practice possibly causes the learning benefits of teaching.     

CLIMATE CHANGE,LAUDATO SI', CREATION SPIRITUALITY,AND THE NOBILITY OF THE SCIENTIST'S VOCATION

This exploration into spirituality and climate change employs the “four paths” of the creation spirituality tradition. The author recognizes those paths in the rich teachings of Pope Francis’s encyclical, Laudato Si' and applies them in considering the nobility of the scientist's vocation. Premodern thinkers often resisted any split between science and religion. The author then lays out the basic archetypes for recognizing the sacredness of creation, namely, the Cosmic Christ (Christianity); the Buddha Nature (Buddhism); the Image of God (Judaism); the “Primordial Man” (Hinduism), as well as the premodern universal teaching of “God as Beauty.” He addresses the subject of evil which deserves serious attention in the face of the realities posed by climate change and the resistance to addressing them. In the concluding section, the author speaks of a new Order of the Sacred Earth that was launched in fall 2017 to gather persons of whatever spiritual tradition or none to devote themselves to preserving Mother Earth.     

Other‐Centric Reasoning

This article considers question‐begging's opposite fallacy. Instead of relying on my beliefs for my premises when I should be using my adversary's beliefs, I rely on my adversary's beliefs when I should rely on my own. Just as question‐begging emerges from egocentrism, its opposite emerges from other‐centrism. Stepping into the other person's shoes is an effective strategy for understanding him. But you must return to your own shoes when forming your beliefs. Evidence is agent centered. Other‐centric reasoning is most striking when both parties partake simultaneously. We are then treated to the spectacle of each side using the other's premises to establish its conclusion. These remarkable debates arise regularly when there is open disagreement about whether a right‐conferring relationship has ended. Those who contend the relationship is abrogated will be tempted to stand on the rights persistently credited to them by their adversary.     

死亡心理:外部防御还是内在成长?

对西方主要的死亡心理研究进行了回顾和比较分析,不同的死亡心理研究在研究传统、研究对象和研究方法方面存在差异。但是根据研究的侧重点,可以总结出死亡心理的核心内涵:外部防御和内在成长。对死亡的抽象认知产生死亡焦虑,死亡焦虑产生死亡恐惧、自我保护、外在价值导向等外部防御反应;对死亡的具体认知产生死亡反省,死亡反省产生死亡接受、亲社会动机和行为、内在价值导向等内在成长反应。作者以死亡心理的两类反应为框架,综述了近5年来新的研究证据,并对该领域当前研究的局限和未来研究方向进行了分析。     

适合汉语全拼输入的提示性软键盘的研发与验证

本研究设计了两种基于汉语全拼输入的提示性软键盘:加粗加黑和颜色提示,并通过实证性研究验证了这两种提示性软键盘对汉字输入绩效的影响。结果表明,两种提示性软键盘均优于非提示性软键盘,在打字速度、使用方便程度、喜爱程度和总体评价上均更好,加粗加黑提示性软键盘还显著提升了输入正确率。该结果为基于汉字输入的提示性软键盘的研发和使用提供了科学依据和数据支持,也将为相关键盘的投入市场做出贡献。     

情绪背景和社会预期对社会经济决策行为的影响

采用最后通牒博弈范式,探讨不同情绪背景对社会经济决策中社会预期效应的影响。以90名大学生为被试,利用不同效价的电影片段(正性、负性和中性)诱发相应的目标情绪。通过操作社会规范性信息启动被试对分配方案公平性的不同预期。结果发现:在负性和中性情绪背景下,高预期组更倾向于拒绝接受不公平分配。在正性情绪背景下,高预期组和低预期组面对不公平提议时的接受率没有显著差异。结果表明正性情绪背景使社会预期效应发生改变,回应者对分配方案的高预期不再对决策结果产生显著影响。     

家庭支持与朋友支持对不同自理能力老年人抑郁水平的影响

探讨社会支持中的家庭支持和朋友支持对不同自理能力老年人抑郁水平的影响作用。结果发现:(1)社会支持可有效缓解老年人抑郁症状;(2)对个体而言,家庭支持是较稳定的支持来源,受个体年龄和健康水平的影响较小,而朋友支持变动较大,随年龄增长和健康水平的下降,朋友支持逐渐减少;(3)社会支持对不可完全自理老年人抑郁水平的解释率高于对可完全自理老年人抑郁水平的解释率;(4)对于生活可完全自理的老人,朋友支持比家庭支持有更大的预测作用,而对于生活不能完全自理的老人,家庭支持的作用更大。