Context affects the interpretation of low but not high numerical probabilities: A hypothesis testing account of subjective probability

Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be interpreted either positively, suggesting the occurrence of the target event, or negatively, suggesting its non-occurrence. High numerical probabilities, however, are typically interpreted positively. We argue that the greater directional ambiguity of low numerical probabilities may make them more susceptible than high probabilities to contextual influences. Results from five experiments supported this premise, with perceived base rate affecting the interpretation of an event’s numerical posterior probability more when it was low than high. The effect is consistent with a confirmatory hypothesis testing process, with the relevant perceived base rate suggesting the directional hypothesis which people then test in a confirmatory manner.     

Threat to Parental Role: A Possible Mechanism of Altered Self-Concept Related to Carrier Knowledge

Researchers and clinicians have suggested that learning one is a carrier for a genetic disorder has the potential to alter self-concept. Concerns about self-concept have influenced the development of policies regarding the availability of carrier testing for minors and the informed-consent process. A literature review identified three mechanisms through which self-concept has been proposed to be affected: altered perception of genetic identity, diminished social identity, and an altered perception of health. This paper presents a conceptual framework developed from identity theory and the self's response to threat to propose a fourth mechanism: threat to the parental role. Clarification of the role of self-concept, the threat to self-concept related to carrier knowledge, and coping behaviors activated in response to this threat would help to target appropriate genetic counseling interventions.     

Adaptation of Two Family Therapy Training Instruments to Culturally Suit the Indian Context

Two family therapy training instruments, the Family Concept Assessment (FCA) and Rating Scale and Family Therapy Assessment Exercise (FTE), developed in the United States were adapted to suit the Indian cultural context. Several changes were made to the instruments while at the same time maintaining the equivalency of the scales to the original. Both the instruments were tested for face validity by a panel of cultural and content experts in the United States. The FTE was then pilot tested with an Indian sample. The psychometric properties of the adapted instrument are reported in this article including feedback from the participants.     

Application of Sequential Interval Estimation to Adaptive Mastery Testing

In this paper, we apply sequential one-sided confidence interval estimation procedures with β-protection to adaptive mastery testing. The procedures of fixed-width and fixed proportional accuracy confidence interval estimation can be viewed as extensions of one-sided confidence interval procedures. It can be shown that the adaptive mastery testing procedure based on a one-sided confidence interval with β-protection is more efficient in terms of test length than a testing procedure based on a two-sided/fixed-width confidence interval. Some simulation studies applying the one-sided confidence interval procedure and its extensions mentioned above to adaptive mastery testing are conducted. For the purpose of comparison, we also have a numerical study of adaptive mastery testing based on Wald's sequential probability ratio test. The comparison of their performances is based on the correct classification probability, averages of test length, as well as the width of the “indifference regions.” From these empirical results, we found that applying the one-sided confidence interval procedure to adaptive mastery testing is very promising.     

Objective personality assessment of people in diverse cultures: European adaptations of the MMPI-2

This article examines the cross-national application of psychological tests and examines the generalizability of objective psychological assessment instruments. The most widely used and internationally adapted personality instrument, the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI-2), is highlighted to illustrate the adaptation of psychological tests across the barriers of language and culture. The problems and limitations of using questionnaire methods were noted and effective strategies for translating, adapting, and standardizing questionnaires in languages and cultures different from their country of origin are reviewed. The history of several European adaptations of the original MMPI and MMPI-2 is surveyed to illustrate the extensive research base for the test in Europe. Applications of the MMPI-2 in clinical and non-clinical (e.g. industrial) settings were noted. Current research is described and recommendations for future research are provided.     

An Evaluation of the Validity and Fairness of the Graduate Management Admissions Test (GMAT) Used for MBA Selection in a UK Business School

The Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) has been shown to be a valid predictor of Masters of Business Administration (MBA) performance in the USA, but no UK validity studies have been published. This study uses a large sample of UK MBA students to examine the validity and fairness of GMAT. It is found that GMAT-Verbal is a good predictor of MBA examination performance but GMAT-Quantitative is not. It is also found that both components are unfair to native English speakers. The reasons for these findings are to be found in the nature of the criterion employed. Some observations are made regarding the consequences for best practice of the competitive and political context of MBA selection.     

A Patient's Perspective on Genetic Counseling and Predictive Testing for Alzheimer's Disease

The availability of genetic testing for Alzheimer's disease is anticipated to be widespread in the future. As an individual at risk with a family history of Alzheimer's disease, I discuss why I sought predictive tests and how I would use the information from such tests. I relay what I learned in my genetic counseling session, my response to the counseling process, and steps I have since taken. I discuss life planning, psychological and fear of discrimination issues from a patient's perspective.     

Optimal sequential designs for on-line item estimation

Replenishing item pools for on-line ability testing requires innovative and efficient data collection designs. By generating localD-optimal designs for selecting individual examinees, and consistently estimating item parameters in the presence of error in the design points, sequential procedures are efficient for on-line item calibration. The estimating error in the on-line ability values is accounted for with an item parameter estimate studied by Stefanski and Carroll. LocallyD-optimaln-point designs are derived using the branch-and-bound algorithm of Welch. In simulations, the overall sequential designs appear to be considerably more efficient than random seeding of items.This report was prepared under the Navy Manpower, Personnel, and Training R&D Program of the Office of the Chief of Naval Research under Contract N00014-87-0696. The authors wish to acknowledge the valuable advice and consultation given by Ronald Armstrong, Charles Davis, Bradford Sympson, Zhaobo Wang, Ing-Long Wu and three anonymous reviewers.     

Test theory without true scores?

This paper traces the course of the consequences of viewing test responses as simply providing dichotomous data concerning ordinal relations. It begins by proposing that the score matrix is best considered to be items-plus-persons by items-plus-persons, and recording the wrongs as well as the rights. This shows how an underlying order is defined, and was used to provide the basis for a tailored testing procedure. It also was used to define a number of measures of test consistency. Test items provide person dominance relations, and the relations provided by one item can be in one of three relations with a second one: redundant, contradictory, or unique. Summary statistics concerning the number of relations of each kind are easy to get and provide useful information about the test, information which is related to but different from the usual statistics. These concepts can be extended to form the basis of a test theory which is based on ordinal statistics and frequency counts and which invokes the concept of true scores only in a limited sense.1979 Psychometric Society presidential address.I want to recognize the contributions which others have made to whatever I have accomplished. First to mention here are my teachers: principally Harold Gulliksen, Ledyard Tucker, and the late Edith Jay. Second, I would like to recognize the importance of my graduate students. Tom Reynolds has been especially important in developing the ideas that I will talk about here today, but at various times, the others have made major contributions in this and other topics. I would like to express also a debt to my family, primarily my wife, Rosemary, who herself has a longterm interest in the psychometric area. Finally, I must acknowledge the financial support of the NIMH some time ago, the Office of Naval Research, until about a year ago, and of the James McKeen Cattell Fund this past year.     

Maximum likelihood estimation in multidimensional scaling

A variety of distributional assumptions for dissimilarity judgments are considered, with the lognormal distribution being favored for most situations. An implicit equation is discussed for the maximum likelihood estimation of the configuration with or without individual weighting of dimensions. A technique for solving this equation is described and a number of examples offered to indicate its performance in practice. The estimation of a power transformation of dissimilarity is also considered. A number of likelihood ratio hypothesis tests are discussed and a small Monte Carlo experiment described to illustrate the behavior of the test of dimensionality in small samples.The research reported here was supported by grant number APA 320 to the author by the National Research Council of Canada.