Not as gloomy as we thought: reassessing how the public understands probability of precipitation forecasts

Prior research on probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts showed that many people wrongfully believe that PoP forecasts are derived from a percentage of time, a percentage of a region or the strength of agreement among forecasters. We posit that the wording of interpretation selection tasks matters, because different response options are associated with different metacognitive feelings. We hypothesised that the incorrect PoP interpretations are more often chosen by participants because they are more fluent than the correct PoP interpretation. We assessed the role of fluency in correctness perception (Study 1) and reassessed PoP interpretations with a more fluent correct interpretation (Study 2). Fluency perception was positively related with perception of correctness. Furthermore, participants selected the correct fluent interpretation more often than the correct disfluent one. We have drawn a more optimistic picture of people’s PoP forecasts understanding than that shown before and have discussed the methodological and applied implications.     

Why aggression?2

On the basis of a formalised view of metapsychology, the author briefly considers the problems inherent in the Freudian notion of a death drive or aggressive drive and then goes on to develop a new theoretical conception of aggression. Aggression is understood as an affect, action or affective action and, in relation to these, as an expression of the intensity with which a drive'whether it be the sexual drive with its libidinal cathexes or the self‐preservative drive with its lethic cathexes'seeks to attain its object. In this context the author regards the regulation of closeness and distance with respect to the ‘psychogeometric locus’ of the relevant drive object as being of central importance. She contends that neurotic personalities suffer from specific distortions in the perception of the psychogeometric locus of their drive objects, which may give rise to an intensification of the drive tendencies prevailing in these individuals at any given time so that these tendencies take on an aggressive character. The author presents two clinical vignettes to show how her approach allows aggression and its occurrence to be conceptualised without resorting to the idea of a primary aggressive drive, and draws attention to the resulting technical consequences for interpretation.     

PARENTS AND THEIR CHILD AND THE ANALYST IN THE MIDDLE

The first part of this paper explains how the transgenerational mandate influences the mental activity of the child. When a child acts the denied suffering of the parental couple, the analyst risks being imprisoned by the transgenerational mandate. Frequently the analyst is unconsciously asked by the parents to cure without curing because the child's psychological birth, still in the making, threatens the defensive equilibrium of the parents. The analyst is thus caught between the parents and the child and must find his/her own way forward in order to free the child from the burden of the mandate. In the second part of the paper, an analysis of a 5-year-old child is presented. The author shows how a transgenerational mandate may hold a traumatic potential because it can impair heavily the child's capacity to think. The author also describes the way in which she works with the parents and how she manages the setting and the style of the interpretation. She insists in particular on the need to sustain the child's perceptions in order to gradually allow the child to take roots in his/her experiences and therefore develop his/her own identity.     

From Patterns To Prosperity: A Review Of Rachlin’s The Science Of Self-control.

The Science of Self‐Control (Rachlin, 2000) presents a clear overview of research and theory on self‐control, emphasizing important recent research by Rachlin and his students on temporally extended behavioral patterning as an aid to curbing impulsive decisions. We found the book well suited as a textbook in a graduate seminar on self‐control, particularly because it lucidly presents several provocative ideas about self‐control, decision making, addiction, and general theories of behavior. Of particular interest are his discussion of the “primrose path” to addiction and his behavioral research on the “prisoner's dilemma” as it relates to self‐control. Although we take some issue with teleological behaviorism, the theory of behavior advocated by Rachlin, we recommend this book to anyone interested in self‐control.     

Questions for a Millennium: Religion and Science from the Perspective of a Scientist

This essay addresses a series of eight questions about what religion can do for science. It explores the secular role of religion in contemporary science and the need for greater synthesis between science and religion. It concludes that, for survival in the twenty-first century, religion cannot exist without acknowledging and using the enormous information pool of science, and science can no longer shun or ignore religion. Humankind will always need the large, synthetic explanations that religion provides of why we are here and what we ought to do and believe. The world needs to mark this new millennium with a sense of respect, cooperation, and even synthesis between science and religion.     

A Pragma-Dialectical Approach of the Analysis and Evaluation of Pragmatic Argumentation in a Legal Context

This paper answers the question how pragmatic argumentation which occurs in a legal context, can be analyzed and evaluated adequately. First, the author surveys various ideas taken from argumentation theory and legal theory on the analysis and evaluation of pragmatic argumentation. Then, on the basis of these ideas, she develops a pragma-dialectical instrument for analyzing and evaluating pragmatic argumentation in a legal context. Finally she demonstrates how this instrument can be used by giving an exemplary analysis and evaluation of pragmatic argumentation in a decision of the Dutch Supreme Court.     

易理诠释与哲学创造：以熊十力为例

创造性的诠释懦家经典特别是《周易》是熊十力建构其“新唯识论”的重要理路。这种与古代经学方法有别的经典诠释,部分地归因于20世纪的历史语境：后经学时代自由解经的空间、对动力式文化精神的哲学追求、近代以来的哲学变革;部分地则归因于熊十力本人将现代观念与传统智慧的创造性结合,并且由此实现了哲学的创造。但其经典诠释方式存在着相对主义与独断论的紧张,“譬喻”说则是为其经学诠释所做的方法论辩护。     

Rohling's Interpretive Method and Inherent Limitations on the Flexibility of “Flexible Batteries”

Miller and Rohling (2001) proposed a 24-step algorithm, the Rohling Interpretive Method (RIM), for quantitative interpretation of results from flexible neuropsychological test batteries. We believe that the RIM as presented in that paper has several conceptual problems, including (a) a failure to distinguish "statistically significant" from pathological differences, (b) an assumption that declines in specific abilities can be inferred when a particular test score deviates from an estimate of general premorbid ability, and (c) confusion between the standard deviation associated with individual test scores versus that of a composite of those scores. As an alternative, we suggest the value of developing and using co-normed comprehensive neuropsychological test batteries from which test users might select subsets of tests.     

Hermeneutics of Clinical Practice: The Question of Textuality

In this article I scrutinize the question whetherclinical medicine, in order to be considered ahermeneutical enterprise, must be thought of as areading of different texts. Three differentproposals for a definition of the concept of text inmedicine, suggested by other hermeneuticians, arediscussed. All three proposals are shown to beunsatisfying in various ways. Instead of attempting tofind a fourth definition of the concept of textsuitable to a hermeneutics of medicine, I then try toshow that the assumption that one needs to operatewith the concept of text in order to develop ahermeneutics of medicine is false. Clinicalinterpretation can be shown to essentially consist ina dialogical hermeneutics, the pattern of which can befound in the philosophy of Hans-Georg Gadamer. Thiskind of hermeneutics is not a methodology of textreading, but an ontological, phenomenologicalhermeneutics in which understanding is a necessaryfeature of the being-together of human beings in theworld. This being-together in and through languagetakes on a peculiar form in the clinical encounter,since the medical meeting is typically characterizedby an asymmetrical enstrangement and has a specificgoal – health for the patient – absent in other formsof hermeneutics. Central issues of Gadamer'sphilosophy, e.g. fusion of horizons, are shown tofit the structure of clinical practice.     

What Is a Fact? Eva Rosenfeld and Historiography

Historians have disputed excessive speculative claims made on behalf of psychoanalytic interpretations. As psychoanalytic theory evolved, theorists sought to communicate the higher aspects of ego functioning which adapt our inner world to outer realities. Roazen's article discusses the question of what is a fact within the context of the history of analysis. He does this through the examples of Eva Rosenfeld's correspondences which explore the nature of historiography itself.