Are there degrees of belief?

John Maynard Keynes claimed that not all probabilities were comparable. Frank Ramsey argued that they were, and that Keynes's views to the contrary rested on a confusion of degree of entailment and degree of belief. We will argue that Keynes and Ramsey largely talked past each other, and yet that there are issues of great significance underlying their dispute. In particular, the simple principle of maximizing expected utility may be seen in a new light as one step of a rich and complex process.     

Probability, logic and the cognitive foundations of rational belief

Since Pascal introduced the idea of mathematical probability in the 17th century discussions of uncertainty and “rational” belief have been dogged by philosophical and technical disputes. Furthermore, the last quarter century has seen an explosion of new questions and ideas, stimulated by developments in the computer and cognitive sciences. Competing ideas about probability are often driven by different intuitions about the nature of belief that arise from the needs of different domains (e.g., economics, management theory, engineering, medicine, the life sciences etc). Taking medicine as our focus we develop three lines of argument (historical, practical and cognitive) that suggest that traditional views of probability cannot accommodate all the competing demands and diverse constraints that arise in complex real-world domains. A model of uncertain reasoning based on a form of logical argumentation appears to unify many diverse ideas. The model has precursors in informal discussions of argumentation due to Toulmin, and the notion of logical probability advocated by Keynes, but recent developments in artificial intelligence and cognitive science suggest ways of resolving epistemological and technical issues that they could not address.     

专家-熟手-新手型教师教学策略与成就目标、人格特征的关系研究

该研究对不同类型教师的教学策略、成就目标和人格特征的关系进行了探讨,结果表明,新手型教师的教学策略与成绩目标存在显著的负相关,其中成绩——回避目标是其教学策略的有效预测变量,而熟手型教师和专家型教师则与任务目标存在显著的正相关：精神质是新手型教师教学策略的有效预测变量,内外向是熟手型教师教学策略的有效预测变量,而专家型教师的神经质对其教学策略存在着重要的影响。     

A Fine Risk To Be Run? The Ambiguity of Eros and Teacher Responsibility

Teachers are often placed in a space of tensionbetween responding to students as persons andresponding to students through theirinstitutionally-defined roles. Particularlywith respect to eros, which has becomeincreasingly the subject of strictinstitutional legislation and regulation,teachers have little recourse to a language ofresponsibility outside an institutional frame. By studying the significance of communicativeambiguity for responsibility, this paperexplores what is ethically at stake forteachers in erotic forms of communication. Specifically, it is Levinas's own ambiguousunderstanding of the ethical significance oferos, and what we have to learn from it, thatoffers a way of reading the place of eros inresponsibility. I conclude my discussion withsome thoughts on what a renewed understandingof responsibility might mean at the personaland institutional levels.     

EFFECTS OF IMMEDIATE SELF-CORRECTION,DELAYED SELF-CORRECTION,AND NO CORRECTION ON THE ACQUISITION AND MAINTENANCE OF MULTIPLICATION FACTS BY A FOURTH-GRADE STUDENT WITH LEARNING DISABILITIES

This study compared the effects of immediate self-correction, delayed self-correction, and no correction on the acquisition and maintenance of multiplication facts by a fourth-grade student with learning disabilities. Data from daily and maintenance tests indicated that both correct response rate and accuracy were higher when self-correction was immediate rather than delayed or absent.     

Professional responsibility: Focusing on the exemplary

The literature on ethics in science and engineering tends to dwell on the negative, emphasizing disasters, scandals, and problems of wrongdoing in everyday practice. This paper shifts to the positive, focusing on the exemplary. After outlining different possible conceptions of responsibility (ranging from a minimalist view of “staying out of trouble” to “going above and beyond the call of duty”), the paper discusses the importance of certain virtues for scientists and engineers. Finally, a broad range of examples of exemplary practice is offered. An earlier version of this paper was presented by the author at a mini-conference, Practicing and Teaching Ethics in Engineering and Computing, held during the Sixth Annual Meeting of the Association for Practical and Professional Ethics, Washington, D.C., March 8–9, 1997. This paper is one of a series edited by Michael C. Loui. See Volume 3, No. 4, 1997 for other papers in this series. Work on this paper was supported by National Science Foundation Grant #SBR-930257.     

Choice with delayed and probabilistic reinforcers: effects of prereinforcer and postreinforcer stimuli.

In Experiment 1, pigeons' pecks on a green key led to a 5-s delay with green houselights, and then food was delivered on 20% (or, in other conditions, 50%) of the trials. Pecks on a red key led to an adjusting delay with red houselights, and then food was delivered on every trial. The adjusting delay was used to estimate indifference points: delays at which the two alternatives were chosen about equally often. Varying the presence or absence of green houselights during the delays that preceded possible food deliveries had large effects on choice. In contrast, varying the presence of the green or red houselights in the intertrial intervals had no effects on choice. In Experiment 2, pecks on the green key led to delays of either 5 s or 30 s with green houselights, and then food was delivered on 20% of the trials. Varying the duration of the green houselights on nonreinforced trials had no effect on choice. The results suggest that the green houselights served as a conditioned reinforcer at some times but not at others, depending on whether or not there was a possibility that a primary reinforcer might be delivered. Given this interpretation of what constitutes a conditioned reinforcer, most of the results were consistent with the view that the strength of a conditioned reinforcer is inversely related to its duration.     

Second-order schedules of token reinforcement: effects of varying the schedule of food presentation

In the initial link of a complex schedule, one discriminative stimulus was presented and lever pressing produced tokens on fixed-ratio schedules. In the terminal link, signalled by a second discriminative stimulus, deposits of the tokens produced food. With two rats, the terminal link was presented after each sixth component schedule of token reinforcement was completed. With the other two rats, the terminal link was presented following the first component schedule completed after a fixed interval. During the terminal link, each token deposit initially produced food. The schedule of food presentation was subsequently increased such that an increasing number of token deposits in the terminal link was required for each food presentation. Rates of lever pressing in the initial link were inversely related to the schedule of food presentation in the terminal link. These results are similar to those of experiments that have varied schedules of food presentation in chained schedules. Rates and patterns of responding controlled throughout the initial link were more similar to those ordinarily controlled by second-order brief-stimulus schedules than to those controlled by comparable extended chained schedules.     

Jung in education: a review of historical and contemporary contributions from analytical psychology to the field of education

The available literature on the influence of Jungian thought on the theory and practice of education leaves the impression that although the work of Carl Jung and analytical psychology have much to offer the field of education, the Jungian influence has so far been slight. While this has certainly been true, the last decade or so has nevertheless witnessed an increased scholarly interest in exploring how analytical psychology may inform and inspire the field of education. As an explanation for this burgeoning interest in Jung, several of the contemporary contributors mention that analytical psychology has the potential of functioning as a counterbalance to the tendencies in Western societies to focus on measurable learning targets and increasingly standardized measures of teaching and assessment. It seems pertinent then to gain an overview of how analytical psychology has so far inspired the field of education and how it may fruitfully continue do so in the future. To this end this paper is structured chronologically, starting with the different phases of Jung's own engagement with the field of education and ending with later post‐Jungian applications of his concepts and ideas to education.     

Rewording the Rules on Disjunctive Probability

Logic is a central and highly useful part of philosophy. Its value is particularly evident when it comes to keeping our thinking about disjunctive probabilities clear. Because of the two meanings of “or” (“just one of these statements is true,” “at least one of these statements is true”), logic can show how the likelihood of a disjunction being true can be determined quite easily. To gauge the chance that one of two or more exclusive alternatives is true, one need only sum up their respective likelihoods. And to know the chance that at least one of two or more compatible alternatives is true, one simply has to figure the chance that it is false that all of them are false!