Task bias and the accuracy of judgment: Setting a baseline for expected group performance

When a judgment task evokes unbiased estimates (i.e. the errors in individual judgments are distributed randomly around the true value), mathematical aggregation of individual estimates, even by a simple arithmetic mean, often will outperform all group members. However, when a task evokes biased estimates, mathematical aggregation does not perform so well. In this study, simulated data were accumulated to specify the expected' accuracy of mathematical aggregation relative to the accuracy of observed judgment of individual group members under varying conditions of task bias. Three types of judgment tasks were employed: (1) single-estimate, holistic tasks, (2) multiple-estimate, ranking tasks, and (3) multi-cue, decomposed tasks. Findings indicated across all task types that a large percentage of judgment-making group estimates formed strictly by computing the arithmetic mean of individual estimates performed better than their most capable members when a judgment task evoked little or no bias, a result particularly pronounced for ranking tasks. When the task was more greatly bias-evoking, a large percentage of parallel groups performed more poorly than average (or median) members, again a pattern more starkly evident for ranking tasks. These results suggest that the extent to which a judgment task evokes bias in a population of prospective group members is an important explanatory variable deserving much greater attention in the study of group performance. For example, an assertion about the efficacy of a particular group intervention based on a reliable demonstration of group performance as accurate as the most capable members may be unfounded when a task evokes no bias, since the baseline standard under such conditions should be much higher. By selecting tasks and populations that jointly produced highly biased estimates, researchers can lower the performance floor enough to detect (with reasonably small samples of groups) experimental effects should they occur.     

Aristotle and the tradition of rhetorical argumentation

The first part of this paper contends that argumentation is central and essential to Aristotle's Rhetoric, and recounts a number of arguments in support of that view, particularly the recognition that deliberative rhetoric or the rhetoric of counsel is the primary concern of Aristotle's work. The second part of the paper reviews the work that follows in this present volume to show that the other writers' views fit in perfectly with this thesis.     

Computerized assessment in neuropsychology: A review of tests and test batteries

This article contains detailed reviews of 13 computerized neuropsychological and performance test batteries and six stand-alone computer tests. Tasks found on these instruments are described and tables illustrate which batteries employ which measures. In addition to issues of reliability and validity, special considerations apply to computerized assessment. These issues are discussed and readers are provided information to help them assess computerized tests in relation to their particular clinical and research needs. Since many computerized tests were developed as performance assessment tools, the relationship between performance and neuropsychological assessment is examined.     

A review of the effects of noise on human performance

The present review is concerned with the effects of noise, especially moderate intensity noise on performance. The review covers recent empirical results and theoretical approaches, and examines the importance of the nature of the noise, individual differences in response to noise, and other factors which modify the effects of noise. A central theme of the review is that it is essential to consider the nature of the task being performed in noise, and a profile of strategies of performance in noise is presented. Finally, recommendations are made about the direction and methodology of future research.     

Incorporating prior theory in covariance structure analysis: A bayesian approach

A Bayesian approach to the testing of competing covariance structures is developed. The method provides approximate posterior probablities for each model under consideration without prior specification of individual parameter distributions. The method is based on ayesian updating using cross-validated pseudo-likelihoods. Given that the observed variables are the samefor all competing models, the approximate posterior probabilities may be obtained easily from the chi square values and other known constants, using only a hand calculator. The approach is illustrated using and example which illustrates how the prior probabilities can alter the results concerning which model specification is preferred.     

The social phobia and anxiety inventory: Construct validity

The Social Phobia and Anxiety Inventory (SPAI) is a new instrument composed of social phobia and agoraphobia subscales. The latter scale is used to detect social anxiety that may result from agoraphobia. The SPAI's construct validity was assessed through several procedures. First, confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to validate the existence of the two subscales. Second, exploratory factor analyses examined the underlying structure of the social phobia subscale. Third, a Q factor procedure determined if different anxiety diagnostic groups could be differentiated by their SPAI response pattern. The results confirmed the utility of the two SPAI subscales and identified a number of dimensions contained within the social phobia subscale which differed depending upon the specific subject sample. In addition, the complaints of social phobies appeared more homogeneous than those of an agoraphobic comparison group. The results are discussed in terms of construct validity and the sensitivity of the SPAI to various dimensions of social phobia fears.This study was supported in part by NIMH Grants 41852, 30915, 18269, and 16884.     

TOWARD A NEW RELATION BETWEEN HUMANITY AND NATURE: RECONSTRUCTING T'IEN-JEN-HO-I

Abstract. The traditional Chinese idea of t'ien-jen-ho-i (Heaven and humanity in union) implies that humanity has to live in harmony with nature. As science and technology progress, however, the idea appears increasingly outmoded, and it becomes fashionable to talk about overcoming nature. Ironically, though, the further science reaches the more clearly are its limitations exposed. The exploitation of nature not only endangers many life forms on earth but threatens the very existence of the human species. I propose that a reconstruction of the traditional Chinese idea of T'ien-jen-ho-i will help us envisage a new and salutary relation between humanity and nature.     

The pathological left-handedness syndrome

A clinical syndrome of pathological left-handedness (PLH) is proposed to identify the pattern of correlative changes in lateral development associated with early brain injury in some manifest left-handers. This syndrome is believed to be caused by a hemispheric lesion that is predominantly left-sided (or bilateral asymmetric), which onsets before Age 6, and which encroaches upon the critical speech zones of the frontotemporal/frontoparietal cortex. The pattern of changes may include any or all of the following features: shifts in manual dominance, trophic changes in the extremities, transfer of hemispheric speech, and/or intrahemispheric reorganization of visuospatial cognitive functions. Although some of these correlates of PLH have long been known, they have not been recognized as an interrelated pattern of traits that constitute a clinical syndrome. Identification of these individuals, all manifest left-handers, will be shown to have implications for diagnosis/remediation and for models of recovery of function.     

Subcortical functions in language: A working model

The current paper explains a model of subcortical language functions that focuses on dynamic interactions between the cortex, the thalamus, and the basal ganglia in the production of spoken language. The model was derived from (a) studies of subcortical lesions and language, (b) studies of subcortical stimulation and language, (c) knowledge regarding neural pathways between various cortical and subcortical structures, and (d) indications that preverbal monitoring of language occurs. In the current model, the thalamus plays roles in cortical arousal and activation and in preverbal semantic monitoring. The basal ganglia function to regulate the degree of excitation conveyed from the thalamus to the cortex and to time the release of formulated language for motor programming. Consistency with classical syndromes of aphasia and potential applications to other areas in the neurosciences are discussed. The current theory, unlike previous formulations, is specific enough that testable hypotheses can be derived.     

PRODUCING GENERALIZED JOB INITIATIVE IN SEVERELY MENTALLY RETARDED SHELTERED WORKERS

The development of generalized job initiative was examined with three severely retarded men working in an industrial assembly area of a sheltered workshop. Interventions included discrimination training, role-play training, and self-monitoring. For each participant, training was applied sequentially to three sets of job initiative behaviors. Intensive training was required to establish the first set of job initiative behaviors; however, the second and third sets of job initiative behaviors were learned with only discrimination training. The discussion summarizes the findings and suggests research needed to develop more powerful learning-to-learn paradigms.