Demonstrating the effect of context on order effects for an army air defense task using the patriot simulator

The results reported herein support the hypotheses that (1) situation-specific, contextual features of a task can cause people to use explanation-based reasoning (Pennington and Hastie, 1993); (2) such reasoning can cause experienced personnel, both individually and in two-person teams, to reinterpret the meaning of the same information when it is presented in two different ordered sequences; and (3) the result will be primacy or recency (or no) effects depending on whether the most recent conflicting information can be explained away or not, respectively. These results extend the belief-adjustment model proposed by Hogarth and Einhorn (1992), which does not address information reinterpretations, and always predicts recency effects for an evaluation task with a short series of conflicting information. More generally, the results demonstrate the importance of situation-specific, contextual features in understanding judgment processes. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Outcome effects: The impact of decision process and outcome controllability

An ‘outcome effect’ refers to the phenomenon whereby performance evaluations of decision makers are affected by the outcomes of those decisions. Although some consider such an effect to be a judgmental error, judgment by outcomes may not be dysfunctional when the evaluator does not know how the decision maker chose his or her action. In such situations, outcomes may provide some noisy information about decision quality. We test whether an outcome effect will still occur when the decision methodology and quality are more explicitly identified. Further, we test whether outcome controllability, a previously unexplored moderator variable, will have an impact on the outcome effect. Our first experiment, using undergraduates as subjects, shows that decision quality and controllability have an impact on performance evaluations but that the ubiquitous outcome effect still obtains. These results were replicated with experienced business people, except that controllability only affected their judgments in the case of negative outcomes. Implications of these results are discussed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Plagues,Pagans, and Christians: Differential Survival,Social Networks,and the Rise of Christianity

In his book, The Rise of Christianity, Rodney Stark argues that the early Christian church indirectly benefitted from the plagues that struck the early Roman Empire in the 2nd and 3rd centuries of the Common Era. In particular, he argues that the early church's doctrines concerning love, charity, and social service would have led Christians to enjoy higher survival rates than pagans, which would have left the social networks of the former relatively intact, while those of the latter in disarray. Moreover, since recruitment to new religious movements occurs largely through social ties, the probability that an average pagan would have converted to Christianity would have been greater after the plagues than before. In this article, we use computer modeling to test Stark's hypothesis. Not only do we find support for his hypothesis, we also show that higher survival rates for either group not only would have benefitted their respective social networks but also would have benefitted their competitor's social networks, highlighting how network effects often flow in multiple and unexpected ways. We conclude with suggestions for future research, in particular how scholars can build upon our analyses and explore alternative assumptions.     

A Regression Framework for Causal Mediation Analysis with Applications to Behavioral Science

We introduce and extend the classical regression framework for conducting mediation analysis from the fit of only one model. Using the essential mediation components (EMCs) allows us to estimate causal mediation effects and their analytical variance. This single-equation approach reduces computation time and permits the use of a rich suite of regression tools that are not easily implemented on a system of three equations. Additionally, we extend this framework to non-nested mediation systems, provide a joint measure of mediation for complex mediation hypotheses, propose new visualizations for mediation effects, and explain why estimates of the total effect may differ depending on the approach used. Using data from social science studies, we also provide extensive illustrations of the usefulness of this framework and its advantages over traditional approaches to mediation analysis. The example data are freely available for download online and we include the R code necessary to reproduce our results.     

Women experience more serious relationship problems when male partners endorse hostile sexism

Men's hostile sexism promotes aggressive attitudes, motivations and behaviors toward women. Despite the costs these effects should have for women, prior research has failed to test how men's hostile sexism predicts the problems women experience in important domains. We address this oversight by utilizing dyadic data from 363 heterosexual couples to test how male partners’ hostile sexism predicts women's relationship experiences and evaluations. Male partners’ hostile sexism was associated with women experiencing more severe problems across a greater number of domains. Moreover, the areas experienced as most problematic were consistent with the power, dependence, and trust concerns underlying men's hostile sexism, including problems with power dynamics, jealousy, and serious problems involving gender-role conflict, abuse, infidelity and alcohol/drugs. The greater problems associated with male partners’ hostile sexism predicted more negative relationship evaluations for women. These results demonstrate the importance of examining how men's hostile sexism harms women in important life domains.     

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.     

羞怯对攻击的影响:安全感和社会比较倾向的中介作用

为考察安全感和社会比较倾向在羞怯与攻击之间关系的中介作用,采用大学生羞怯量表、社会比较倾向量表、安全感量表和攻击问卷对543名大学生进行测量。结果发现(1)羞怯、攻击和社会比较倾向三者之间呈显著两两正相关,且三者分别与安全感呈显著负相关;(2)羞怯对攻击的直接效应显著;(3)安全感和社会比较倾向在羞怯与攻击关系间起完全中介作用。     

授权型领导的负面效应：理论机制与边界条件

已有研究主要关注授权型领导的正面影响, 然而, 新近的研究表明授权型领导可能也会引发潜在的负面效应。针对此问题, 首先界定了授权型领导的概念及其核心特征。其次, 基于双重任务加工效应、角色理论和内隐领导理论, 阐释了授权型领导负面效应的理论机制, 并进一步分析和总结了授权型领导的有效性在何种条件下能够实现。最后, 提出了授权型领导负面效应未来研究方向的建议。