A systematic review of the effectiveness of machine learning for predicting psychosocial outcomes in acquired brain injury: Which algorithms are used and why?

Clinicians working in the field of acquired brain injury (ABI, an injury to the brain sustained after birth) are challenged to develop suitable care pathways for an individual client’s needs. Being able to predict psychosocial outcomes after ABI would enable clinicians and service providers to make advance decisions and better tailor care plans. Machine learning (ML, a predictive method from the field of artificial intelligence) is increasingly used for predicting ABI outcomes. This review aimed to examine the efficacy of using ML to make psychosocial predictions in ABI, evaluate the methodological quality of studies, and understand researchers’ rationale for their choice of ML algorithms. Nine studies were reviewed from five databases, predicting a range of psychosocial outcomes from stroke, traumatic brain injury, and concussion. Eleven types of ML were employed with a total of 75 ML models. Every model was evaluated as having high risk of bias, unable to provide adequate evidence for predictive performance due to poor methodological quality. Overall, there was limited rationale for the choice of ML algorithms and poor evaluation of the methodological limitations by study authors. Considerations for overcoming methodological shortcomings are discussed, along with suggestions for assessing the suitability of data and suitability of ML algorithms for different ABI research questions.     

Readers and service commissioners require clear financial disclosures: Comment on innovation,research integrity,and change: A conflict of interest management framework for program developers (Sanders et al., 2019)

Sanders et al.'s proposal for a management framework for conflicting interests among program developers is very welcome. The underlying principles of such a framework must nevertheless prioritise the need for researchers and commissioners of services to make objective assessments of the impact of interventions reported in journal articles. This is particularly important in the field of randomised trials which may influence public sector expenditure. Using a strict definition derived from known financial conflict of interest, we have demonstrated that child-based effect sizes are much lower for independent studies than for studies with developer involvement. On this basis, we propose that journals publishing evaluations of psychosocial interventions should agree a standardised format for declarations of conflicts of interest based on that recommended by the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors.     

Do looks constitute our perceptual evidence?

Many philosophers take experience to be an essential aspect of perceptual justification. I argue against a specific variety of such an experientialist view, namely, the Looks View of perceptual justification, according to which our visual beliefs are mediately justified by beliefs about the way things look. I describe three types of cases that put pressure on the idea that perceptual justification is always related to looks‐related reasons: unsophisticated cognizers, multimodal identification, and amodal completion. I then provide a tentative diagnosis of what goes wrong in the Looks View: it ascribes a specific epistemic role to beliefs about looks that is actually fulfilled by subpersonal perceptual processes.     

Pessimism

The problem of pessimism is the secular analogue to the evidential problem of evil facing traditional theism. The traditional theist must argue two things: that the evidence shows that this is on balance a good world and that it is the best possible world. Though the secular optimist who advocates any form of secular moral theory need not argue that the current and future world will likely be the best possible world, she nonetheless must argue that were there a clean solution to the problem of current and future suffering in which all sentient life could be instantly and painlessly eliminated, we would have reasons not to employ the clean solution because the future promises to bring on balance a good world in which the evil of human and animal suffering is outweighed by whatever is good in the world. Pessimism is the view that the evidence argues against secular optimism. It is argued here that it is anything but clear that secular optimism is warranted when viewed from an impersonal point of view. The problem is then evaluated from the personal point of view in which a form of personal optimism is defended even in the face of impersonal pessimism.     

Professional Autonomy and the Normative Structure of Medical Practice

Professional autonomy is often described as a claim of professionalsthat has to serve primarily their own interests. However, it can also beseen as an element of a professional ideal that can function as astandard for professional, i.e. medical practice. This normativeunderstanding of the medical profession and professional autonomy facesthree threats today. 1) Internal erosion of professional autonomy due toa lack of internal quality control by the medical profession; 2)the increasing upward pressure on health care expenses that calls for ahealth care policy that could imply limitations for the professionalautonomy of physicians; 3) a distorted understanding of theprofession as being based on a formal type of knowledge and relatedtechnology, in which other normative dimensions of medical practice areneglected and which frustrates meaningful communication betweenphysicians and patients. To answer these threats a normative structureanalysis of medical practice is presented, that indicates whichprinciples and norms are constitutive for medical practice. It isconcluded that professional autonomy, normatively understood, should bemaintained to avoid the lure of the technological imperative and toprotect patients against third parties' pressure to undertreatment.However, this professional autonomy can only be maintained if members ofthe profession subject their activities and decisions to a criticalevaluation by other members of the profession and by patients and ifthey continue to critically reflect on the values that regulate today'smedicine.     

Global Progress I: Empirical Evidence for ongoing Increase in Quality-of-life

This paper argues that both the relativist and the pessimist critiques of the idea of progress are inadequate. Progress is defined as increase in global quality of life (QOL). Such QOL is intrinsically subjective, but not relative. It can be reliably measured through life satisfaction-type questions. The World Database of Happiness provides extensive data on social, economic and psychological factors that correlate with overall QOL. They include wealth, health, security, knowledge, freedom and equality. Various statistical data suggest that all these QOL indicators have undergone significant improvements during the last half century, in most of the world. This gives strong support to the thesis that progress objectively occurs.     

Peter Singer’S Argument for Utilitarianism

The paper begins by situating Singer within the British meta-ethical tradition. It sets out the main steps in his argument for utilitarianism as the ‘default setting’ of ethical thought. It argues that Singer’s argument depends on a hierarchy of reasons, such that the ethical viewpoint is understood to be an adaptation – an extension – of a fundamental self-interest. It concludes that the argument fails because it is impossible to get from this starting-point in self-interest to his conception of the ethical point of view. The fundamental problem is its mixing the immiscible: the Humean subordination of reason to interest with the Kantian conception of reason as universal and authoritative.     

鬼谷子的测谎心理思想研究

鬼谷子的测谎心理思想其目的在于帮助统治者考察权变、征召远近人才、谋划国家事物、献说陈情、决安危、定亲疏、察同异、辨真伪。其基本依据的是阴阳观。他认为阴阳是宇宙变化的一贯之道,把握了阴阳之道,就获得了开启人内心隐秘的基本原理。其所遵循的原则是：知己知人原则,隐秘性原则,把握时机原则。其具体技术有捭阖术,即根据阴阳变化原理提出的开启和闭藏的技术;钩言术,即通过语言表达的动静状态窥探他人内心情报的方法;飞箝术,是以激励、褒扬的言语诱导对方获得实情而抓住对方心理的一种测谎技术。揣摩术,又分揣术和摩术。揣术是根据情感的两极变化和惯常行为表现推测对方心理真实情报的方法。摩术是指将内在情感与外在符验相结合进行推测、切磋、体会获得对方真实情报的方法。     

Bocheński and Balance: System and History in Analytic Philosophy

Using the work of Józef Bocheski as apositive example, this paper sets out the casefor a balanced use of historical knowledge indoing analytic philosophy. Between the twoextremes of relativizing historicism, whichdenies absolute truth, and arrogant scientism,which denies any constructive role for thehistory of ideas in philosophy, lies a viamedia in which historical reflection onconcepts and their history is placed at theservice of the system of cognitive philosophy.Knowledge of the history of philosophy, whilenot a sine qua non, can empower analyticphilosophy to push forward to new and moresatisfactory solutions to old and new problems.Examples are adduced from Bocheski's oeuvreand from the author's own experience.     

略论《周易》史观

《周易》的形成出于占筮,古人以此来求知国之兴衰、人之穷通,具有一种“通古今之变”的思维倾向。所以它有别于其他类型的迷信,那蕴含其中的某种逻辑推演和理智分析的因素,被后来的易学及其哲学发展出一套《周易》的世界观、人生观和历史观。这些观点集中到一点就是:以阴阳变异的法则说明一切事物。本文主要从《周易》的特有思维模式及其古奥的言词来探讨其中所蕴含的历史观。并规约出两点:第一,《周易》所体现的历史演变方式;第二,《周易》史观中的历史动力。