Testing for independence between pairs of autocorrelated binomial data sequences

A problem arises in analyzing the existence of interdependence between the behavioral sequences of two individuals: tests involving a statistic such as chi-square assume independent observations within each behavioral sequence, a condition which may not exist in actual practice. Using Monte Carlo simulations of binomial data sequences, we found that the use of a chi-square test frequently results in unacceptable Type I error rates when the data sequences are autocorrelated. We compared these results to those from two other methods designed specifically for testing for intersequence independence in the presence of intrasequence autocorrelation. The first method directly tests the intersequence correlation using an approximation of the variance of the intersequence correlation estimated from the sample autocorrelations. The second method uses tables of critical values of the intersequence correlation computed by Nakamuraet al. (J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 1976,71, 214–222). Although these methods were originally designed for normally distributed data, we found that both methods produced much better results than the uncorrected chi-square test when applied to binomial autocorrelated sequences. The superior method appears to be the variance approximation method, which resulted in Type I error rates that were generally less than or equal to 5% when the level of significance was set at .05.     

Tests for stability in linear structural equation systems

Interpretations regarding the effects of exogenous and endogenous variables on endogenous variables in linear structural equation systems depend upon the convergence of a matrix power series. Convergence depends upon the eigenvalues of the structural coefficient matrix. The test for convergence developed by Jöreskog and Sörbom is shown to be only sufficient, not necessary and sufficient.     

Analysis of the elements of attention: A neuropsychological approach

A model for conceptualizing the components or elements of attention is presented. The model substitutes for the diffuse and global concept of attention a group of four processes and links them to a putative system of cerebral structures. Data in support of the model are presented; they are derived from neuropsychological test scores obtained from two samples, the first consisting of 203 adult neuropsychiatric patients and normal control subjects, and the second, an epidemiologically-based sample of 435 elementary school children. Principal components analyses of test scores from these two populations yielded similar results: a set of independent elements of attention that are assayed by different tests. This work presents a heuristic for clinical research in which the measurement of attention is essential.     

The role of the psychologist expert witness: Provider of perspective and input

The definition and role of the expert witness is reviewed. Two conceptual systems for viewing the world, the scientific method and the adversarial system, are compared. The reconciliation and integration of these two discrepant systems are discussed in terms of input versus outcome. The rules of evidence, as well as problems of communication between the systems, are reviewed with the aim of providing expert witnesses with a better understanding of effective testimony. Finally, collaboration between the two systems is called for in order to provide guidelines for both neuropsychologists and attorneys.     

The life and times of PSI

This paper describes the essential features of the personalized system of instruction (PSI). Results from outcome research examining the effectiveness of PSI-based courses relative to traditional methods provide unequivocal support for the superiority of PSI. Parametric studies, or component analyses, show that the mastery requirement, immediate performance feedback, and review units are the key features underlying high quality student performances in PSI courses. The use of student proctors as peer-tutors, optional lectures, and selfpacing do not, in and of themselves, appear to be vital to student success in PSI courses. Despite its superiority, PSI has not supplanted traditional methods as the dominant pedagogical system in higher education. Difficulties inherent in overcoming the inertia of the lecture within our established instructional system, the implications of PSI for that system, and the Zeitgeist that permeates educational reform are the major obstacles to widespread adoption of PSI.     

Covariance structure analysis in several populations

This paper is concerned with the study of covariance structural models in several populations. Estimation theory of the parameters that are subject to general functional restraints is developed based on the generalized least squares approach. Asymptotic properties of the constrained estimator are studied; and asymptotic chi-square tests are presented to evaluate appropriate model comparisons. The method of multipliers and the standard reparametrization technique are discussed in obtaining the estimates. The methodology is demonstrated by a set of real data.Computer facilities were provided by the Computer Services Center, The Chinese University of Hong Kong. The authors are indebted to several anonymous reviewers for suggestions for improvement of this paper.     

Changing the Criminal Justice System Response to Sexual Assault: An Empirical Study of a Participatory Action Research Project

In jurisdictions throughout the United States, thousands of sexual assault kits (SAKs; also known as a “rape kits”) have not been submitted by the police for forensic DNA testing. DNA evidence may be helpful to sexual assault investigations and prosecutions by identifying perpetrators, revealing serial offenders through DNA matches across cases, and exonerating those who have been wrongly accused. This paper describes a longitudinal action research project conducted in Detroit, Michigan after that city discovered approximately 11,000 untested sexual assault kits in a police department storage facility. We conducted a root cause analysis to examine individual, organizational, community, and societal factors that contributed to the development of the rape kit backlog in Detroit. Based on those findings, we implemented and evaluated structural changes to increase staffing, promote kit testing, and retrain police and prosecutors so that cases could be reopened for investigation and prosecution. As we conducted this work, we also studied how this action research project impacted the Detroit criminal justice system. Participating in this project changed stakeholders’ attitudes about the utility of research to address community problems, the usefulness of DNA evidence in sexual assault cases, and the impact of trauma on survivors. The results led to new protocols for SAK testing and police investigations, and new state legislation mandating SAK forensic DNA testing.     

中国人社会善念的心理结构

为探究中国人社会善念的心理结构, 研究采用人格词汇法, 在开放调查收集的词汇中选取代表社会善念的心理词语, 确立了社会善念词库。通过两次探索性因素分析和验证性因素分析, 得到包含18个人格特质词的社会善念词汇评定量表和包含17项描述的社会善念自陈量表。研究表明, 中国人的社会善念是一种具有二阶四因素结构的人际特质, 二阶是指宜人特质和外倾特质, 四因素分别是善良尊重、谦和恭逊、包容理解和积极开放。     

The role of drivers’ social interactions in their driving behavior: Empirical evidence and implications for car-following and traffic flow

Models for describing the microscopic driving behavior rarely consider the “social effects” on drivers’ driving decisions. However, social effect can be generated due to interactions with surrounding vehicles and affect drivers’ driving behavior, e.g., the interactions result in imitating the behavior of peer drivers. Therefore, social environment and peer influence can impact the drivers’ instantaneous behavior and shift the individuals’ driving state. This study aims to explore empirical evidence for existence of a social effect, i.e., when a fast-moving vehicle passes a subject vehicle, does the driver mimic the behavior of passing vehicle? High-resolution Basic Safety Message data set (N = 151,380,578) from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment program in Ann Arbor, Michigan, is used to explore the issue. The data relates to positions, speeds, and accelerations of 63 host vehicles traveling in connected vehicles with detailed information on surrounding environment at a frequency of 10 Hz. Rigorous random parameter logit models are estimated to capture the heterogeneity among the observations and to explore if the correlates of social effect can vary both positively and negatively. Results show that subject drivers do mimic the behavior of passing vehicles –in 16 percent of passing events (N = 18,099 total passings occurred in freeways), subject vehicle drivers are observed to follow the passing vehicles accelerating. We found that only 1.2 percent of drivers normally sped up (10 km/hr in 10 s) during their trips, when they were not passed by other vehicles. However, if passed by a high speed vehicle the percentage of drivers who sped up is 16.0 percent. The speed change of at least 10 km/hr within 10 s duration is considered as accelerating threshold. Furthermore, the acceleration of subject vehicle is more likely if the speed of subject driver is higher and more surrounding vehicles are present. Interestingly, if the difference with passing vehicle speed is high, the likelihood of subject driver’s acceleration is lower, consistent with expectation that if such differences are too high, the subject driver may be minimally affected. The study provides new evidence that drivers’ social interactions can change traffic flow and implications of the study results are discussed.     

Cogmic space for narrative-based world representation

Representing a world or a physical/social environment in an agent’s cognitive system is essential for creating human-like artificial intelligence. This study takes a story-centered approach to this issue. In this context, a story refers to an internal representation involving a narrative structure, which is assumed to be a common form of organizing past, present, future, and fictional events and situations. In the artificial intelligence field, a story or narrative is traditionally treated as a symbolic representation. However, a symbolic story representation is limited in its representational power to construct a rich world. For example, a symbolic story representation is unfit to handle the sensory/bodily dimension of a world. In search of a computational theory for narrative-based world representation, this study proposes the conceptual framework of a Cogmic Space for a comic strip-like representation of a world. In the proposed framework, a story is positioned as a mid-level representation, in which the conceptual and sensory/bodily dimensions of a world are unified. The events and their background situations that constitute a story are unified into a sequence of panels. Based on this structure, a representation (i.e., a story) and the represented environment are connected via an isomorphism of their temporal, spatial, and relational structures. Furthermore, the framework of a Cogmic Space is associated with the generative aspect of representations, which is conceptualized in terms of unconscious- and conscious-level processes/representations. Finally, a proof-of-concept implementation is presented to provide a concrete account of the proposed framework.