Absence of evidence and evidence of absence: evidential transitivity in connection with fossils,fishing, fine-tuning,and firing squads

“Absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence” is a slogan that is popular among scientists and nonscientists alike. This article assesses its truth by using a probabilistic tool, the Law of Likelihood. Qualitative questions (“Is E evidence about H?”) and quantitative questions (“How much evidence does E provide about H?”) are both considered. The article discusses the example of fossil intermediates. If finding a fossil that is phenotypically intermediate between two extant species provides evidence that those species have a common ancestor, does failing to find such a fossil constitute evidence that there was no common ancestor? Or should the failure merely be chalked up to the imperfection of the fossil record? The transitivity of the evidence relation in simple causal chains provides a broader context, which leads to discussion of the fine-tuning argument, the anthropic principle, and observation selection effects.     

INTRODUCTION: GLOBAL DEMOCRACY AND EXCLUSION

Abstract: Does democracy or popular sovereignty imply exclusion and drawing borders? And if so, what type of exclusion and borders, and what kind of justification can we give for them? Moreover, if democracy really requires some kind of exclusion, is global democracy then a paradoxical union of two contradictory ideals? Can we create a demos on the global level? The focus of this collection of essays is on this potential conflict and its underlying values.     

FEDERATIVE GLOBAL DEMOCRACY

Abstract: In this essay a set of principles is defended that yields a determinate allocation of sovereign competences across a global system of territorially nested jurisdictions. All local sovereign competences are constrained by a universal, justiciable human rights regime that also incorporates a conception of cross-border distributive justice and regulates the competence to control immigration for a given territory. Subject to human rights constraints, sovereign competences are allocated according to a conception of global democracy. The proposed allocation scheme can accommodate substantial local autonomy while at the same time ensuring that everyone has a voice in the political decisions that affect his or her interests. The relevant class of affected interests is fully specified. Relevant affects are of two kinds: those that impose norms of governance on individuals, and those that impose external costs on them. The favored sense of "an external cost" is developed and defended.     

How and how not to make predictions with temporal Copernicanism

Gott (Nature 363:315–319, 1993) considers the problem of obtaining a probabilistic prediction for the duration of a process, given the observation that the process is currently underway and began a time t ago. He uses a temporal Copernican principle according to which the observation time can be treated as a random variable with uniform probability density. A simple rule follows: with a 95% probability,

The disjunction effect reexamined: Relevant methodological issues and the fallacy of unspecified percentage comparisons

Leonard J. Savage’s sure-thing principle (1954) is a key assumption of the consequentialist conception of decision making under uncertainty, which more-or-less assumes that decision makers are rational and thorough. The sure-thing principle states that if some option x is preferred given some other event A occurs, and if option x is preferred given this event A does not occur, then x should be preferred even when the outcome of A is unknown. Tversky and Shafir [Tversky, A., &; Shafir, E. (1992). The disjunction effect in choice under uncertainty. Psychological Science, 3(5) 305–309] claim that this basic principle is frequently violated in two-step gambles. They call such violations disjunction effects. Kuhberber, Komunska, and Perner [Kuhberber, A., Komunska, D., &; Perner, J. (2001). The disjunction effect: does it exist for two step gambles? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 85(2) 250–264] attempted to replicate Tversky and Shafir’s findings and claim their results show that people do not violate the sure-thing principle in repeated gambles. This article evaluates Kuhberger, Komunska, and Perner’s claims, suggesting they did not appropriately analyze their results, and further provides evidence that people do regularly violate the sure-thing principle in two-step gambles, providing further evidence for the reality of disjunction effects.     

亲体肝移植的伦理学问题探讨

目前,肝移植已成为治疗终末期肝病的有效手段。活体肝移植术部分解决了供肝短缺的问题,10多年来其发展迅速,并取得了良好的疗效。由于活体肝移植需从活的供体身上切取部分肝脏,且供体多为患者家属,故存在着供体的选择、供体的贡献与代价,患者的家庭、心理、社会等伦理学问题。因此在提高活体肝移植技术水平的同时,必须充分考虑活体肝移植的伦理学问题,遵守伦理原则,使活体肝移植不但能从技术上达到,在伦理学方面也是可行的。     

康复队伍建设对实现残疾人康复服务的影响

老年股骨颈骨折是常见的骨科病,但其治疗方案的选择并没有统一的标准。本文回顾了骨折治疗原则的发展历程和股骨颈骨折现有的治疗方法,旨在从系统论的最优化原则角度,初步讨论治疗老年股骨颈骨折的最优方案,认为应结合患者的生理年龄、预期寿命、骨的质量、骨折情况和经济条件等因素来选择治疗方案。     

构建医患会话的合作原则

通过对门诊医患会话的现场调查,发现经典的合作原则并不完全适用于门诊医患会话。这是因为医患会话中医生和患者之间存在着信息和权势两方面的不对称。为了适应新型的医患关系,在经典合作原则的基础上构建了医患会话的合作原则,以期规范和指导现实的医患会话。     

湖北省保健干部健康状况主要影响因素分析

临床见习对整个医院医学体系维持、运行和发挥功能起着很重要的作用,但在具体实践中与患者的隐私权发生冲突时,又该如何保护患者的隐私权?以案件为例进行伦理分析,并通过伦理论辩求证"尊重自主原则"是保护患者隐私权的主要原则。     

国外军事医学伦理学的发展概论

走入战场的医生与正在进行与军事有关的医学研究的人员应具有的独特伦理准则,是军事医学伦理学研究的核心。但是军事医学伦理的准则始终受到战争的挑战。在新的反恐战争中,西方的军事医学伦理困惑聚增,使这一学科迅速发展并经历激烈争论。我们应关注西方的医学伦理在军事领域的延伸。