Error-statistical elimination of alternative hypotheses

I consider the error-statistical account as both a theory of evidence and as a theory of inference. I seek to show how inferences regarding the truth of hypotheses can be upheld by avoiding a certain kind of alternative hypothesis problem. In addition to the testing of assumptions behind the experimental model, I discuss the role of judgments of implausibility. A benefit of my analysis is that it reveals a continuity in the application of error-statistical assessment to low-level empirical hypotheses and highly general theoretical principles. This last point is illustrated with a brief sketch of the issues involved in the parametric framework analysis of tests of physical theories such as General Relativity and of fundamental physical principles such as the Einstein Equivalence Principle.     

Cosmic inflation and the past hypothesis

The past hypothesis is that the entropy of the universe was very low in the distant past. It is put forward to explain the entropic arrow of time but it has been suggested (e.g. [Penrose, R. (1989a). The emperor’s new mind. London:Vintage Books; Penrose, R. (1989b). Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 571, 249–264; Price, H. (1995). In S. F. Savitt (Ed.), Times’s arrows today. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; Price, H. (1996). Time’s arrow and Archimedes’ point. Oxford: Oxford University Press; Price, H. (2004). In C. Hitchcock (Ed.), Contemporary debates in philosophy of science. Oxford: Blackwell]) that it is itself in need of explanation. It has also been suggested that cosmic inflation could provide the explanation, but Price (2004) raises a serious objection to this suggestion, which has otherwise received very little attention in the philosophical literature. Price points out that the standard inflationary explanation involves a double standard: although the evolution of the universe described by the inflationary model seems natural from the standard temporal perspective it looks highly unnatural from the reversed temporal perspective. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a novel form of the inflationary explanation that avoids this objection. It is argued that the inflationary model would not involve a double standard (but would still explain the past hypothesis) if we construct the model with a global “boundary” condition instead of a conventional boundary condition: if we assume that the universe is as generic as possible overall, rather than as generic as possible at some given point (e.g. the Big Bang) as is assumed in the standard inflationary model. This novel form of the inflationary explanation is then compared with Price’s 1996 preferred explanation, a version of the so-called “Weyl hypothesis”.     

Does prior exposure to interpersonal violence increase risk of PTSD following subsequent exposure?

Research has generally found a “dose relationship” between potentially traumatic events (PTEs) and the likelihood of developing PTSD, with greater number of events associated with greater likelihood. Most of these studies have been cross-sectional, however. A recent prospective study (Breslau, Peterson, & Schultz, 2008) found that PTSD response to prior potentially traumatic event (PTE) exposure, rather than prior exposure itself, acts as a risk factor for PTSD in response to subsequent PTE; however, this analysis combined many different types of events, and the unique contribution of specific events (e.g., assault) that may be associated with differential risk of PTSD was indeterminable. The present study examined the effects of cumulative PTE exposure prospectively using a two-wave design in the National Survey of Adolescents (N = 1703). History of assault and witnessing serious violence were the focal PTEs examined. Wave I assault without PTSD was found to predict PTSD at Wave II following exposure to new assault or witnessed violence; however, among those without prior PTSD, Wave I witnessed violence did not increase risk of subsequent PTSD following exposure.     

英语文章阅读过程中的文章标记效应研究

该研究通过三个实验探讨高职生英语阅读的文章标记效应。实验一探讨文章标记对阅读英语长、短文章的影响,结果发现文章标记对英语长文章主题信息保持的促进作用大于对英语短文章主题信息的促进作用。实验二以EyelinkⅡ型眼动仪为工具,考察被试阅读有、无标记文章的主题句的眼动模式的差异,结果发现被试阅读这两类主题句的眼动模式存在显著差异。实验三考察对被试进行文章结构策略训练对文章标记效应的影响,结果发现训练促进了被试对无标记英语长文章主题信息的保持,研究结果支持策略转换假设。     

Anomalous brain dominance and the immune system: Do left-handers have specific immunological patterns?

Geschwind and Behan (1982) and Geschwind and Galaburda (1985a, 1985b, 1985c) suggested a correlation between brain laterality and immune disorders. To test whether this hypothesis holds true not only for the frequency of immune diseases and circulating autoantibodies, but extends also to cellular immunity, we examined the association between handedness and markers of cellular immunity. Twenty-seven left-handed and 37 right-handed subjects were serologically screened for cellular parameters and 22 left-handed subjects were typed for human leukocyte antigen (HLA). When compared to the right-handers, the left-handed group showed a significant decrease in the inflammatory cell types CD3(+) T cells (total T cells), CD4(+) T cells (T-helper cells), and HLA-Dr (MHC-II, antigen-presenting cells) as well as in the CD19(+) cells (B cells) and CD16/CD57(+) cells (natural killer cells). We assume a relationship exists between cerebral hemispheric specialisation and the immune system not only for humoral but also for cellular immunity, and we discuss the role of the major histocompatibility complex in neurological and immunological development.     

Effects of modelling on children''s pretend play

The effects of modelling on pretend play were studied in children between 2.6 and 3.6 years of age by examining changes both in the action and language-based expressions of pretending. Three modelled scenes were demonstrated with the same realistic toys used by the child in the pre-modelling phase. The results gave support to the idea of the effectiveness of modelling. The effects of the modelled scenes were clearest among children whose pre-modelling play consisted of object-centred actions including few of pretending. The post-modelling play of this subgroup showed better quality of action and language categories and integration measures. Among the decentred players no significant action benefit could be achieved. This might have been an outcome of the contextual limits of the toy material and of the drop of play motivation caused by the model interruption. However, these children expressed verbal pretending revealing significant pre-post effects for inventive utterances.     

The catharsis hypothesis,aggressive drive,and the reduction of aggression

The import of the concept of aggressive drive for the construct of catharsis, particularly the trend toward alternatives to drive concepts, is considered. Three conceptions of catharsis are distinguished—the Dramatic model, the Clinical model and the Experimental model. The Dramatic and Clinical models are seen to focus on affective engagement and change, while differing in the vicarious nature of the cathartic experience, in the degree of cognitive representation entailed, and in the nature of the interpersonal context. The Experimental model is seen to be addressed to the more general problem of aggression reduction through aggressive acts. The Dramatic and Clinical models of catharsis are viewed as more specific and germane, and the hypothesis is proposed that catharsis obtains in the case of inhibited rather than persistent or unresolved affect.     

视觉注意捕获的快速脱离假说与信号抑制假说

快速脱离假说和信号抑制假说都是将传统的自下而上捕获和自上而下控制结合起来的混合模式假说。快速脱离假说认为突显干扰物总能在第一时间自下而上地捕获注意, 当突显干扰物与任务要求不符时, 注意会迅速脱离该位置。信号抑制假说认为突显干扰物都会产生“注意我”的信号, 当突显干扰物与任务要求不符时, 该信号会被自上而下地抑制以阻止注意捕获发生。前者相关的研究多采用空间线索提示范式和眼动脱离范式, 实验中被试采取独子探测策略, 而后者相关的研究多采用额外单例范式的变式, 实验中被试采取特征探测策略。未来研究应采用不同的刺激类型和实验方法进一步为两个假说提供证据支持, 同时要关注奖赏、训练等因素对“捕获-脱离”和“信号-抑制”的影响。     

非符号数量表征和符号分数表征的关系

个体学习符号分数的一个关键是能对其数值形成准确表征。现有研究假设符号分数表征的认知基础是人类自婴幼儿期就具有的非符号数量表征(如表征两个集合各自的数量, 或两个数量的比例)。其证据包括表征非符号数量(尤其是非符号数量比例关系)和表征符号分数在行为和大脑神经活动层面上都表现出相关性。然而要说明非符号数量表征是符号分数表征的认知基础, 还需更多研究表明两者在数量概念上的独特相关和因果联系, 并阐明符号分数表征形成的认知机制。     

语言范畴可否引起偏侧化颜色范畴知觉？

本研究考查了语言范畴是否会引起偏侧化颜色范畴知觉,并探讨了偏侧化颜色范畴知觉是语言范畴即时分类颜色还是长期与颜色联结的结果。实验中,以测量差别阈限的方法选定的渐变、相邻颜色知觉距离相当的A、B、C、D四种颜色（A、B为绿色,C、D为蓝色）为材料,以色词与颜色重组模式训练被试用4个人造词汇分别命名4种颜色,并让被试在训练前、第一次训练和第八次训练后均完成视觉搜索任务测试。经训练,原范畴内颜色（AB,CD）变成了范畴间颜色,原范畴间颜色（BC）仍为范畴间颜色。结果显示：被试在一次训练后能以新名字区分4种颜色,八次训练后掌握了4种颜色的新名字;在训练前测试中,出现了与蓝绿色相应的偏侧化颜色范畴知觉;在第八次训练后测试中,出现了与习得的语言范畴相应的偏侧化颜色范畴知觉,但在第一次训练后测试中并未出现这一效应。这些结果表明,语言范畴能引起偏侧化颜色范畴知觉,偏侧化颜色范畴知觉是语言范畴长期与颜色联结,而非即时分类颜色的结果。