The role of probability of success estimates in the sunk cost effect

The sunk cost effect is manifested in a tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment has been made. Arkes and Blumer (1985) showed that a sunk cost increases one's estimated probability that the endeavor will succeed [p(s)]. Is this p(s) increase a cause of the sunk cost effect, a consequence of the effect, or both? In Experiment 1 participants read a scenario in which a sunk cost was or was not present. Half of each group read what the precise p(s) of the project would be, thereby discouraging p(s) inflation. Nevertheless these participants manifested the sunk cost effect, suggesting p(s) inflation is not necessary for the effect to occur. In Experiment 2 participants gave p(s) estimates before or after the investment decision. The latter group manifested higher p(s), suggesting that the inflated estimate is a consequence of the decision to invest. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利他性惩罚的动机

社会规范的维系离不开对违规者实施的利他性惩罚, 然而, 从个体心理层面来看, 利他性惩罚的动机却并不是全然利他的。除了积极维护公平原则以外, 追求良好声誉、规避潜在损失或消除负性情绪也在不同程度上驱动了利他性惩罚。此外, 对惩罚成本数量和成本形式的敏感也表明基于成本-收益原则的策略性动机在驱动利他性惩罚中占据一席之地。进一步探索在利他性惩罚实施过程中不同动机之间的相互作用是未来的重要研究方向。     

The influence of prior choices on current choice

Three pigeons chose between random-interval (RI) and tandem, continuous-reinforcement, fixed-interval (crf-FI) reinforcement schedules by pecking either of two keys. As long as a pigeon pecked on the RI key, both keys remained available. If a pigeon pecked on the crf-FI key, then the RI key became unavailable and the crf-FI timer began to time out. With this procedure, once the RI key was initially pecked, the prospective value of both alternatives remained constant regardless of time spent pecking on the RI key without reinforcement (RI waiting time). Despite this constancy, the rate at which pigeons switched from the RI to the crf-FI decreased sharply as RI waiting time increased. That is, prior choices influenced current choice-an exercise effect. It is argued that such influence (independent of reinforcement contingencies) may serve as a sunk-cost commitment device in self-control situations. In a second experiment, extinction was programmed if RI waiting time exceeded a certain value. Rate of switching to the crf-FI first decreased and then increased as the extinction point approached, showing sensitivity to both prior choices and reinforcement contingencies. In a third experiment, crf-FI availability was limited to a brief window during the RI waiting time. When constrained in this way, switching occurred at a high rate regardless of when, during the RI waiting time, the crf-FI became available.     

Why a "word order difference" is not always a "word order" difference: a reply to Weyerts,Penke, Münte,Heinze, and Clahsen

We present evidence that the supposed processing advantage for an SV_finO word order over an SOV_fin word order in German argued for by Weyerts, Penke, Münte, Heinze, and Clahsen (2002) is supported by neither experimental nor theoretical evidence. Specifically, we show (a) that the frontocentral negativity for an SOV_fin in comparison to an SV_finO word order in Weyerts et al.'s Experiments 2 and 3 is reducible to more general differences in the electrophysiological responses elicited by nouns versus verbs in a sentence context, and (b) that the P600 difference between the two word orders in Experiment 2, as well as the reading time differences in Experiment 1, result from the fact that the two supposedly ungrammatical conditions actually differ in their degree of ill-formedness. We conclude that there is no evidence for a processing disadvantage for SOV_fin, thus reconciling Weyerts et al.'s results on German sentence processing with the grammatical regularities of German.     

准备时间和预先信息对任务切换的影响

两个实验采用任务线索范式,考察了准备时间和预先信息对任务切换的影响。实验1的准备时间为可预测,实验2的为不可预测,以考察准备时间的可预测性对任务切换的影响。以被试执行重复任务、切到任务和切离任务的正确反应时为主要指标,结果：（1）在准备时间可预测和不可预测两种条件下,准备时间和预先信息之间存在显著交互作用。在可预测条件中,重复和切到任务的反应时随着准备时间的增加而减少,但切到代价无显著变化,切离任务的反应时不受准备时间的影响,切离代价表现出反准备效应;不可预测条件下,三种任务的反应时都随着准备时间的增加而减少,但是切到和切离代价表现出反准备效应;（2）切离任务的反应时和代价显著高于切到任务的反应时和代价;（3）在这两种条件下,都没有出现切换代价的准备效应     

医管、医患双重博弈研究

在中国,老百姓"看病难,看病贵"问题已饱受各方诟病多时,政府不断出台的政策却收效甚微。通过分析医疗机构、管制者和患者所面临的风险与收益、行为与选择、医疗机构与管制者之间的重复博弈,医疗机构与患者之间的一次性博弈,提出医疗机构与管制者、医疗机构与患者的双重博弈假说。指出了"药价虚高"的根源以及解决的可能途径。     

材料类型和任务可预测性在任务转换中的作用

以阿拉伯数字和汉字数字为材料,采用奇偶判断和大小判断任务交替呈现范式,考察材料类型和任务可预测性在任务转换中的作用。结果发现:(1)对阿拉伯数字和汉字数字的反应时无显著差异,转换代价差异不显著;(2)不可预测任务反应时显著长于可预测任务,转换任务和重复任务都显示了基于可预测性的准备效应。表明材料类型对任务转换无影响,重复和转换任务都存在一般的任务控制更新过程。     

有限理性信任观:对理性计算和非理性态度的整合

信任是理性的还是非理性的,一直是信任研究中争论的焦点。在对理性信任观和非理性信任观进行比较分析之后,在"有限理性"和"心智成本"的框架下,提出了信任的有限理性观点,对信任的理性观和非理性观点做一整合。     

The effect of decision risk and project stage on escalation of commitment

We investigate the joint effects of decision risk and the stage of project completion on escalation of commitment. In two experiments, we demonstrate that the effect of decision risk is moderated by project stage such that the decision risk has the strongest effect on escalation of commitment at the intermediate stage of project completion. This is due to the dynamic influences underlying escalation of commitment. Whereas the need for project information influences resource commitment at the initial stage of a project, the need for project completion affects resource allocation at the terminal stage. In contrast, motivation to commit resources is disproportionately low at the intermediate stage since both the need for project information and the need for project completion are relatively weak. As such, the decision to commit resources is most sensitive to the moderating effect of decision risk when the project is about half complete.     

Effects of treatment‐integrity failures on a response‐cost procedure

Effects of incorrect or partial implementation (poor treatment integrity) on response cost are largely unknown. We evaluated reduced treatment integrity during response cost on rates of 2 concurrently available responses. College students earned points by clicking on either a black circle or a red circle on a computer screen. Experiment 1 compared 2 types of treatment‐integrity failures (omission and commission errors) across 2 levels of integrity (20% and 50%). Compared to 100% integrity conditions, omission errors did not suppress responding to the same extent, and commission errors reduced target responding but also decreased rates of alternative behavior. Experiment 2 compared the effects of 20% and 50% omission errors within subjects. Implementation at 50% integrity adequately suppressed responding, but treatment effects were lost at 20% integrity. There may be a critical level at which response cost must be implemented to suppress responding, which has important implications for application.