A new goodness-of-fit measure for probit models: Surrogate R2

Probit models are used extensively for inferential purposes in the social sciences as discrete data are prevalent in a vast body of social studies. Among many accompanying model inference problems, a critical question remains unsettled: how to develop a goodness-of-fit measure that resembles the ordinary least square (OLS) R² used for linear models. Such a measure has long been sought to achieve ‘comparability’ of different empirical models across multiple samples addressing similar social questions. To this end, we propose a novel R² measure for probit models using the notion of surrogacy – simulating a continuous variable $S$ as a surrogate of the original discrete response (Liu & Zhang, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 113, 845 and 2018). The proposed R² is the proportion of the variance of the surrogate response explained by explanatory variables through a linear model, and we call it a surrogate R². This paper shows both theoretically and numerically that the surrogate R² approximates the OLS R² based on the latent continuous variable, preserves the interpretation of explained variation, and maintains monotonicity between nested models. As no other pseudo R², McKelvey and Zavoina's and McFadden's included, can meet all the three criteria simultaneously, our measure fills this crucial void in probit model inference.     

Do we make decisions for other people based on our predictions of their preferences? evidence from financial and medical scenarios involving risk

Abstract

The ways in which the decisions we make for others differ from the ones we make for ourselves has received much attention in the literature, although less is known about their relationship to our predictions of the recipient’s preferences. The latter question is of particular importance given real-world occurrences of surrogate decision-making which require surrogates to consider the recipient’s preferences. We conducted three experiments which explore this relationship in the medical and financial domains. Although there were mean discrepancies between surrogate predictions and choices, we identified a predictive relationship between the two. Moreover, when participants took high risks for themselves, it seems that they were not willing to do so for others, even when they believed that the recipient’s preferences were similar to their own. We discuss these findings relative to current theories and real-world instances of surrogate decision-making.     

Prenatal Paranoia: An Analysis of the Bumpy Landscape for the Pregnant Athlete

ABSTRACT

I analyze the case of pregnant athletes, and argue that sexism surrounds pregnant athlete’s participation in sport. I claim that we stigmatize the pregnant body in action. Participating in sport while pregnant is often considered socially irresponsible behaviour because of unfounded fear of harming the fetus. Many believe that elite sport is in conflict with reproductive ability. However, this belief is not rooted in scientific findings, and rather is reinforced by traditional sexist views of the woman’s athletic body and its capabilities. Analyzing the various degrees of sexism like sexual objectification and unjust discrimination that surround the pregnant athlete is a relevant and necessary exercise in order to challenge traditional sexist views and increase agency for the pregnant athlete.     

Racism,stress, and sense of personal control among Aboriginal Australian pregnant women

Objectives

To characterise racism experiences in the past year and to investigate a causal association between racism, stress, and sense of personal control in a sample of pregnant South Australian Aboriginal women.

Methods

Data was from the baseline sample of 369 Aboriginal women participating in a randomised controlled trial to prevent early caries in children. Data on demographics, racism experiences, stress, sense of personal control, and health behaviours were collected through interview-guided questionnaires. Linear regression modelling was used to test the association between racism and stress and sense of personal control in separate models. The final models presented were adjusted for confounding.

Results

Participant mean age was 24.7 years (SD ±0.30; Min–Max: 14–43 years). Almost two-thirds (64.7%) resided in rural and regional areas and the highest educational attainment for almost three-quarters (73.7%) was high school or less. Nearly half (48.3%) reported at least one experience of racism in the previous year and almost one third (31.8%) reported racism occurring in a public setting. The adjusted regression coefficients for the effect of racism on stress and sense of personal control were respectively 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28, 0.93) and −0.36 (95% CI −0.68, −0.04).

Conclusions

Our findings contribute with evidence that racism is one of the psychosocial causes of poor mental health among Aboriginal Australians. Culturally sensitive and safe mental health interventions may be beneficial in buffering racism effects during pregnancy. Societal-level policies aimed at both naming and reducing institutionalised racism against Aboriginal Australian Aboriginals are necessary.