The error statistical philosopher as normative naturalist

We argue for a naturalistic account for appraising scientific methods that carries non-trivial normative force. We develop our approach by comparison with Laudan’s (American Philosophical Quarterly 24:19–31, 1987, Philosophy of Science 57:20–33, 1990) “normative naturalism” based on correlating means (various scientific methods) with ends (e.g., reliability). We argue that such a meta-methodology based on means–ends correlations is unreliable and cannot achieve its normative goals. We suggest another approach for meta-methodology based on a conglomeration of tools and strategies (from statistical modeling, experimental design, and related fields) that affords forward looking procedures for learning from error and for controlling error. The resulting “error statistical” appraisal is empirical—methods are appraised by examining their capacities to control error. At the same time, this account is normative, in that the strategies that pass muster are claims about how actually to proceed in given contexts to reach reliable inferences from limited data.     

Parameters, Predictions, and Evidence in Computational Modeling: A Statistical View Informed by ACT-R

Model validation in computational cognitive psychology often relies on methods drawn from the testing of theories in experimental physics. However, applications of these methods to computational models in typical cognitive experiments can hide multiple, plausible sources of variation arising from human participants and from stochastic cognitive theories, encouraging a "model fixed, data variable" paradigm that makes it difficult to interpret model predictions and to account for individual differences. This article proposes a likelihood-based, "data fixed, model variable" paradigm in which models are treated as stochastic processes in experiments with participant-to-participant variation that can be applied to a broad range of mechanistic cognitive architectures. This article discusses the implementation and implications of this view in model validation, with a concrete focus on a simple class of ACT-R models of cognition. This article is not intended as a recipe for broad application of these preliminary, proof-of-concept methods, but as a framework for communication between statisticians searching for interesting problems in the cognitive modeling sphere, and cognitive modelers interested in generalizing from deterministic to stochastic model validation, in the face of random variation in human experimental data.     

Using Cases with Contrary Facts to Illustrate and Facilitate Ethical Analysis

There has been increasing interest in developing practical, non-theoretical tools for analyzing ethical problems in public health, biomedicine, and other scientific disciplines so that professionals can make and justify ethical decisions in their own research or practice. Tools for ethical decisionmaking, together with case studies on ethics, are often used in graduate education programs and in continuing professional education. Students can benefit from opportunities to further develop their analytical skills, to recognize ethical issues, and to develop their moral sensitivity. One practical approach for illustrating and facilitating ethical analysis uses cases with contrary facts and circumstances, an approach which complements rather than replaces theoretical approaches to moral reasoning. Cases with contrary facts and circumstances are presented in two or more alternative ways so that the facts, circumstances, or framing of one version runs counter to that of the other version (s). Cases with contrary facts, together with practical steps for identifying and analyzing ethical issues, are likely to be useful tools for illustrating and facilitating ethics analysis and stimulating the moral imagination. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.     

国外自杀心理学研究与理论评介

以自杀致病理论、自杀评估理论、自杀治疗理论为线索,回顾与总结了国外近十年来的自杀心理学理论与研究概况,同时重点介绍了致病理论中的应激—易感模型、逃避自我理论、杀死自我理论;自杀评估理论中的SSF评估、四阶段过程模式;自杀治疗理论中的SATIR理论和荣格艺术治疗理论等,并做了简短评论     

Challenges of Evaluating Multilevel Interventions

This article uses the Comprehensive Mixed-Methods Participatory Evaluation (CMMPE; Nastasi and Hitchcock Transforming school mental health services: Population-based approaches to promoting the competency and wellness of children, Thousand Oaks, CA: Corwin Press with National Association of School Psychologists 2008; Nastasi et al. School-based mental health services: creating comprehensive and culturally specific programs. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association 2004) model as a framework for addressing the multiplicity of evaluation decisions and complex nature of questions related to program success in multilevel interventions. CMMPE defines program success in terms of acceptability, integrity, social or cultural validity, outcomes (impact), sustainability and institutionalization, thus broadening the traditional notions of program outcomes. The authors use CMMPE and an example of a community-based multilevel sexual risk prevention program with multiple outcomes to discuss challenges of evaluating multilevel interventions. The sexual risk program exemplifies what Schensul and Tricket (this issue) characterize as multilevel intervention–multilevel evaluation (M–M), with both intervention and evaluation at community, health practitioner, and patient levels. The illustration provides the context for considering several challenges related to M–M designs: feasibility of randomized controlled trials within community-based multilevel intervention; acceptability and social or cultural validity of evaluation procedures; implementer, recipient, and contextual variations in program success; interactions among levels of the intervention; unanticipated changes or conditions; multiple indicators of program success; engaging multiple stakeholders in a participatory process; and evaluating sustainability and institutionalization. The complexity of multilevel intervention and evaluation designs challenges traditional notions of evaluation research and experimental designs. Overcoming these challenges is critical to effective translation of research to practice in psychology and related disciplines.     

ALTRUISM IN SUICIDE TERROR ORGANIZATIONS

In recent years, much has been learned about the strategic and organizational contexts of suicide attacks. However, motivations of the agents who commit them remain difficult to explain. In part this is because standard models of social learning as well as Durkheimian notions of sacrificial behavior are inadequate in the face of the actions of human bombers. In addition, the importance of organizational structures and practices in reinforcing commitment on the part of suicide recruits is an under-explored factor in many analyses. This essay examines the potential applicability of evolutionary models of altruism to the understanding of commitment to suicide on the part of terrorist organizational recruits. Three evolutionary models of sacrificial behavior in nonhuman species and many categories of human behavior are explored cross-organizationally: reciprocity, inclusive fitness theory, and induced altruism. Reciprocal altruism is unlikely to be a major motivator in suicide attacks because the costs exhibited by attackers are too high to be adequately compensated. However, the role of evolved self-deception in perceptions of personal death, and thus of rewards in the afterlife, is potentially illuminating. Inclusive fitness theory can help explain the motivations of attackers because rewards to kin often are offered by organizations to suicide recruits. However, suicide bombers also often act out of revenge for the loss of or injury to relatives, and inclusive fitness theory generally, as well as more specific theoretical models of retaliatory aggression, may not adequately account for the bombers' actions. Predictions from induced altruism theory appear to be well supported because suicide terror organizations tend to be tightly structured around practices intended to maintain and reinforce commitment though the manipulation of kinship-recognition cues.     

Top-down predictions in the cognitive brain

The human brain is not a passive organ simply waiting to be activated by external stimuli. Instead, we propose that the brain continuously employs memory of past experiences to interpret sensory information and predict the immediately relevant future. The basic elements of this proposal include analogical mapping, associative representations and the generation of predictions. This review concentrates on visual recognition as the model system for developing and testing ideas about the role and mechanisms of top-down predictions in the brain. We cover relevant behavioral, computational and neural aspects, explore links to emotion and action preparation, and consider clinical implications for schizophrenia and dyslexia. We then discuss the extension of the general principles of this proposal to other cognitive domains.     

Aboriginal language knowledge and youth suicide

This brief report details a preliminary investigation into how community-level variability in knowledge of Aboriginal languages relate to “band”-level measures of youth suicide. In Canada, and, more specifically, in the province of British Columbia (BC), Aboriginal youth suicide rates vary substantially from one community to another. The results reported demonstrate that not only did this simple language-use indicator prove to have predictive power over and above that of six other cultural continuity factors identified in previous research, but also that youth suicide rates effectively dropped to zero in those few communities in which at least half the band members reported a conversational knowledge of their own “Native” language.     

Influences of traits and assessment methods on human resource practitioners’ evaluations of job applicants

We examined human resource (HR) practitioners’ subjective evaluations of job applicants as a function of specific traits and the assessment methods used to measure those traits. HR practitioners (N = 277) rated the hirability of a hypothetical job applicant who was described according to one trait (intelligence, conscientiousness, or agreeableness) assessed by one method (interview, paper-and-pencil test, or assessment center). We found main effects for trait and method as well as an interaction. HR practitioners gave highest hirability ratings to job applicants described as conscientious and to those assessed by an interview. Job applicants evaluated on conscientiousness assessed by an interview were rated more highly than all other combinations of trait and method.