Are effect sizes in self-efficacy field changing over time? A meta–meta analysis

Theories relating to self-efficacy have developed rapidly since Bandura first proposed the concept in 1977. In the past two decades, psychologists have carried out numerous studies to research the cultural and psychological changes in social development. The research topic of this study is whether self-efficacy changes over time. This study uses a meta–meta analysis and includes 13 meta-analyses, including 536 effect sizes, with a total sample size of 421,880. We find that individual self-efficacy increases over time, which may be related to social development trends. However, the effects of interventions on self-efficacy remain similar (Q_model = 1.807, df = 1, p > .05), and a possible explanation is that time effects of self-efficacy confuse the effects of intervention, because both in the intervention group and control group, the average of self-efficacy increases over time. And we find that a general decline in the predictive effects of self-efficacy (Q_model = 5.117, df = 1, p = .024), especially the ability to predict relatively objective variables (e.g. job performance, teaching effectiveness, and transfer of training). A possible explanation is that as social development people tend to overestimate their self-efficacy. Another possible explanation is that the effect sizes in the original studies being overrated, may due to intentional selective reporting or unintentional statistical errors.     

Adversary effects and the tactics of violent offenders

We examine the implication of adversary effects for target choice, lethal intent, and the use of weapons and allies in violent incidents. Adversary effects refer to the tendency of offenders to make tactical decisions based on the coercive power of victims and potential victims. Using the victim's gender as a proxy for coercive power, we analyzed violent incidents from the National Incident‐Based Reporting System (2005–2014). The sample included over six million assaults, robberies, and homicides. Consistent with adversary effects, offenders who attack males (vs. females) are more likely to (a) kill victims; (b) use guns, knives, blunt objects, poison, and automobiles; (c) use male (but not female) allies; and (d) use multiple allies. The evidence for target choice is mixed: unarmed female offenders, but not unarmed male offenders, are more likely to target females than males. The evidence shows how a simple theoretical principle can parsimoniously account for basic patterns of violence in society related to gender, weapons, and group violence.     

Who likes whom? The interaction between perceiver personality and target look

We investigated determinants of liking at zero-acquaintance, focusing on individual differences in perceivers’ reactions to appearance cues. Perceivers (N = 385) viewed portrait photographs of Targets (N = 146). Perceiver’s Agreeableness and Extraversion were uniquely associated with liking targets. Targets who expressed positive emotions, looked relaxed, were physically attractive, and looked healthy and energetic, were the most liked. There were substantial individual differences in how Perceivers were influenced by appearance cues. For instance, Perceivers generally rated targets who displayed non-Duchenne (fake) smiles less favorably than targets who did not smile or targets who displayed Duchenne (authentic) smiles. However, non-Duchenne smiles elicited especially negative ratings from Perceivers high in Neuroticism or Conscientiousness, but not from Perceivers low in Agreeableness.     

主观声旁家族对汉语儿童汉字命名的影响

研究选取三年级、五年级和七年级学生,采用两个汉字命名实验,考察主观声旁家族对汉字命名的影响。实验一操纵主观声旁家族大小,发现三年级儿童没有表现出家族效应;五年级儿童表现出边缘显著的家族抑制效应,即对大家族的字命名更慢;七年级儿童表现出显著的家族抑制效应。实验二操纵了目标字是否有高频家族成员字（higher frequency neighbors,HFNs）这个变量,发现儿童普遍都表现出HFNs抑制效应,即对有高频家族成员字的目标字命名更慢。以上结果表明随着年级增长,主观声旁家族对儿童命名的影响逐渐增强,且高年级儿童已表现出家族抑制效应,这一表现与普遍出现的HFNs抑制效应有关。     

混合情绪能促进心理健康吗？

摘 要 积极和消极情绪的同时体验,即混合情绪,是生活中常见的情绪状态。健康应对的共激活模型、情绪动态模型和积极比模型一致认为混合情绪与心理健康之间呈现非线性的关系,适当的混合情绪有利于个体在困境中全面加工和整合信息,寻求意义,获得控制感,进而实现健康应对和心理症状改善,获得幸福感。未来研究应关注对非线性关系的精确描述;低压力或非压力情境下混合情绪的意义;进一步研究混合情绪促进心理健康的内部机制和影响因素。     

Confidence and Uncertainty in Judgmental Forecasting: Differential Effects of Scenario Presentation

Multiple scenario analysis is used by many organizations for long-term planning, in part because the development of more than one scenario of the future is thought to prevent overconfidence in any one specific forecast. The present study attempts to clarify some of the questions concerning the cognitive effects of scenario presentation by distinguishing between confidence and subjective uncertainty. It examined the impact of different types of scenario information on confidence ratings, credible intervals, and features of forecast series. Subjects (N=186) read either one, two, or no scenario(s) describing potential changes in the level of a stimulus variable, then made forecasts of that variable over the next fifty years. Reading any type of scenario information increased confidence in forecasts; there was no reduction in confidence due to presentation of multiple conflicting scenarios, compared to presentation of only one scenario. Differences in number and in type of scenarios presented did, however, affect subjective uncertainty.     

The danger of conflating level-specific effects of control variables when primary interest lies in level-2 effects

In the multilevel modelling literature, methodologists widely acknowledge that a level-1 variable can have distinct within-cluster and between-cluster effects, and that failing to disaggregate these can yield a slope estimate that is an uninterpretable, conflated blend of the two. Methodologists have stated, however, that including conflated slopes of level-1 variables in a model is not problematic if substantive interest lies only in effects of level-2 predictors. Researchers commonly follow this advice and use methods that do not disaggregate effects of level-1 control variables (e.g., grand mean centering) when examining effects of level-2 predictors. The primary purpose of this paper is to show that this is a dangerous practice. When level-specific effects of level-1 variables differ, failing to disaggregate them can severely bias estimation of level-2 predictor slopes. We show mathematically why this is the case and highlight factors that can exacerbate such bias. We corroborate these findings with simulations and present an empirical example, showing how such distortions can severely alter substantive conclusions. We ultimately recommend that simply including the cluster mean of the level-1 variable as a control will alleviate the problem.     

Exploring Processes in Day-to-Day Parent–Adolescent Conflict and Angry Mood: Evidence for Circular Causality

Parent–adolescent conflict has been studied both as a precursor of long-term macrolevel developmental risks and as an outcome of microlevel, moment-to-moment interaction patterns. However, the family-level processes underlying the maintenance or regulation of conflict in daily life are largely overlooked. A meso-level understanding of parent–adolescent conflict offers important practical insights that have direct implications for interventions. The present study explores day-to-day reciprocal processes and carryover in parents’ and adolescents’ experiences of anger and conflict. Daily diary data provided by parent–adolescent dyads (N = 151) from two-caregiver households (adolescents: 61.59% female, mean age = 14.60 years) over 21 days were examined using a multivariate Poisson multilevel model to evaluate the circular causality principle in parents’ and adolescents’ daily conflict and anger. Findings offer empirical support for the theory, suggesting that parents’ and adolescents’ anger and conflict exist together in a feedback loop wherein conflict is both a consequence of past anger and also an antecedent of future anger, both within and across persons. Increased understanding of the daily interaction patterns and maintenance of parent–adolescent conflict can guide more informed, targeted, and well-timed interventions intended to ameliorate the consequences of problematic parent–adolescent conflict sequences.     

Does community violence exposure moderate the associations between maternal spanking and early child behavior problems?

A robust research literature links parental spanking with negative behavioral outcomes for children, however, it remains unclear whether conditions in the community may moderate the associations between spanking and behavior problems in early childhood. In the current study, we examined whether community violence exposure moderated the associations of maternal spanking with externalizing and internalizing behavior problems of young children. The sample used in this study was urban families and their children ages 3–5 (n = 2,472). We used fixed effects regression models, which yield stronger statistical control for baseline behavior problems, selection bias, and omitted variables bias. Mother's spanking was associated with elevated levels of both externalizing (β = .037, p < .001) and internalizing (β = .016, p < .001) behavior problems. Community violence exposure also predicted higher levels of externalizing (β = .071, p < .01) and internalizing (β = .043, p < .05) behavior problems. Community violence exposure did not moderate the associations between maternal spanking and behavior problems. Professionals working with families should promote the use of nonphysical disciplinary practices, regardless of the level of violence and crime in the community in which the family resides.