条件推理:“演绎”与“概率”两种实验研究范式之比较

本研究通过推理心理学研究中的“演绎”和“概率”两种实验范式设计对同一个班级的大学生参与者(实验一中N=57,实验二中N=43)进行先后两次有关条件推理的实验研究后,得出如下主要结果:(1)推理者在对不同的“纯形式条件命题本身的认可度”以及对由它们各自建构的同类型推理题的推理结果之间的作答反应模式之间的差异都很小且具有较高的一致性;(2)对由不同的“含具体内容的假言命题”本身的认可度之间以及由它们建构的同类型条件推理题的推理结果之间具有较大的差异性;(3)推理者对“演绎”和“概率”两种不同实验范式分别建构的内容近似的推进题进行推理时具有大致相同的作答反应趋势。由此可以推论推理者在“概率推理实验范式”中的作答或推理结果可以被视为只是对“演绎推理实验范式”的相应推理题给出“概率解”的心理加工过程。     

Analyse narrative du récit de la maladie : intérêts méthodologiques et réflexion sur la prise en charge thérapeutique des patients en oncologie

The narrative approach is an emerging disciplinary field, which considers the narrative to be a therapeutic, a methodological and an object of study in its own right. The objective of our contribution is twofold: (a) to present the context of emergence of the narrative approach and the notion of narrative in the field of psychology, and (b) to question the theoretical-methodological relevance of this approach in order to explore the expression of social knowledge with regard to the lived experience of cancer. After presenting some methods of collection and analysis of the narrative, we will suggest an application of this approach by analyzing narrative interviews of people with cancer. We will build on the results obtained to develop a reflection on the applied perspectives of the narrative approach, particularly with regard to the psychological therapy of cancer patients.     

On normal theory based inference for multilevel models with distributional violations

Data in social and behavioral sciences are often hierarchically organized though seldom normal, yet normal theory based inference procedures are routinely used for analyzing multilevel models. Based on this observation, simple adjustments to normal theory based results are proposed to minimize the consequences of violating normality assumptions. For characterizing the distribution of parameter estimates, sandwich-type covariance matrices are derived. Standard errors based on these covariance matrices remain consistent under distributional violations. Implications of various covariance estimators are also discussed. For evaluating the quality of a multilevel model, a rescaled statistic is given for both the hierarchical linear model and the hierarchical structural equation model. The rescaled statistic, improving the likelihood ratio statistic by estimating one extra parameter, approaches the same mean as its reference distribution. A simulation study with a 2-level factor model implies that the rescaled statistic is preferable.This research was supported by grants DA01070 and DA00017 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse and a University of North Texas faculty research grant. We would like to thank the Associate Editor and two reviewers for suggestions that helped to improve the paper.     

The Process Through Which an Advocacy Intervention Resulted in Positive Change for Battered Women Over Time

A prior experimental evaluation of a community-based advocacy program for women with abusive partners demonstrated positive change in the lives of women even 2 years postintervention (C. M. Sullivan & D. I. Bybee, 1999). The current study explored the complex mediational process through which this change occurred, using longitudinal structural equation modeling and formal tests of mediation. As hypothesized, the advocacy intervention first resulted in women successfully obtaining desired community resources and increasing their social support, which enhanced their overall quality of life. This improvement in well-being appeared to serve as a protective factor from subsequent abuse, as women who received the intervention were significantly less likely to be abused at 2-year follow-up compared with women in the control condition. Increased quality of life completely mediated the impact of the advocacy intervention on later reabuse. Discussion places advocacy for women in the context of other efforts that are needed to build an effective community response to preventing intimate violence against women.     

Beyond bruises and broken bones: the joint effects of stress and injuries on battered women's health

We investigated the joint mediating effects of injuries and stress on the relationship between abuse and women's health. A community sample of 397 women, half of whom had been assaulted by an intimate partner within the prior 6 months, was interviewed about their experience of intimate partner violence, injuries, stress, income, depression, and physical health problems. Structural equation modeling techniques confirmed the complex model of hypothesized indirect effects of abuse on women's physical health problems through injuries, stress, and depression. Stress accounted for 80% of the indirect effect of abuse on women's physical health. Its direct effect on physical health was somewhat larger than its indirect effect through depression, but both processes played a key role in determining the effect of abuse on women's physical health problems. Furthermore, abuse was a stronger predictor of women's stress than was poverty. Implication and future research are discussed.     

Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses as Relations

Summary  In spite of several attempts to explicate the relationship between a scientific hypothesis and evidence, the issue still cries for a satisfactory solution. Logical approaches to confirmation, such as the hypothetico-deductive method and the positive instance account of confirmation, are problematic because of their neglect of the semantic dimension of hypothesis confirmation. Probabilistic accounts of confirmation are no better than logical approaches in this regard. An outstanding probabilistic account of confirmation, the Bayesian approach, for instance, is found to be defective in that it treats evidence as a formal entity and this creates the problem of relevance of evidence to the hypothesis at issue, in addition to the difficulties arising from the subjective interpretation of probabilities. This essay purports to satisfy the need for a successful account of hypothesis confirmation by offering an original formulation based on the notion of instantiation of the relation urged by an hypothesis.     

Psychoanalysis and empirical research

At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the idea of reason began to lose its universal and absolute value, undermining the view of science as a form of objective knowledge that reveals a fundamental reality. These changes have also had an impact on psychoanalysis, leading to a proliferation of theories and the end of a positivistic approach, epitomized by a 'neutral' analyst who knows the contents of the patient's mind. Hermeneutic philosophy provides a tool with which to explore both theoretical multiplicity and the contribution of the analyst's subjectivity to the analytic process. Furthermore, a hermeneutic approach does not have to be hostile to empirical science, but can be integrated with it in a 'scientific-hermeneutic model' in which historical and biological principles are given equal value.     

Model comparison of nonlinear structural equation models with fixed covariates

Recently, it has been recognized that the commonly used linear structural equation model is inadequate to deal with some complicated substantive theory. A new nonlinear structural equation model with fixed covariates is proposed in this article. A procedure, which utilizes the powerful path sampling for computing the Bayes factor, is developed for model comparison. In the implementation, the required random observations are simulated via a hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. It is shown that the proposed procedure is efficient and flexible; and it produces Bayesian estimates of the parameters, latent variables, and their highest posterior density intervals as by-products. Empirical performances of the proposed procedure such as sensitivity to prior inputs are illustrated by a simulation study and a real example.This research is fully supported by a grant from the Research Grant Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. CUHK 4346/01H). The authors are thankful to the Editor, the Associate Editor, and anonymous reviewers for valuable comments which improve the paper significantly, and grateful to ICPSR and the relevant funding agency for allowing use of the data in the example. The assistance of Michael K.H. Leung and Esther L.S. Tam is gratefully acknowledged.     

“Mind the gaps”: An empirical approach to engineering ethics, 1997–2001

A survey on ethical issues in engineering was administered over a five-year period to Stanford engineering students and practicing engineers. Analysis of its results strongly suggests that important disconnects exist between the education of engineering students regarding ethical issues in engineering on the one hand, and the realities of contemporary engineering practice on the other. Two noteworthy consequences of these gaps are that the views of engineering students differ substantially over what makes an issue an ethical issue, while practicing engineers exhibit significant disagreement over what is the most important non-technical aspect of being a responsible engineering professional in contemporary society. These divergences impede the recognition of ethical issues and of specific moral responsibilities of engineers in concrete professional practice. It is argued that the use of suitably refined and probing surveys of engineering students and practicing engineers about ethical issues in engineering is an important although neglected empirical approach to the study of engineering ethics. Such an approach can enhance the prevailing case study method and combat over-tidy theoretical-analytical approaches to the subject. When a train arrives at a station in the London Underground, a public announcement cautions passengers to “mind the gap”, i.e. heed the space between the station platform and the carriage while entering or exiting. An early draft of this paper was presented at the International Conference on Ethics in Engineering and Computer Science, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, March 21–23, 1999.