The operation of Lake Kariba: A multiobjective decision analysis

The paper describes a successful application of Bayesian decision analysis to the operation of the Lake Kariba hydropower system. This management problem is complicated by the high uncertainty of the inflow process, multiple and conflicting objectives and the influence of time on some of the parameters in the management task. Inflows to the reservoir are forecast through dynamic linear models. Managerial preferences are modelled through a multiattribute utility function. Since the solution of the exact model is computationally too demanding, a heuristic method is applied to find a feasible control strategy. A comparison with results obtained by methods used previously demonstrates the superiority of the methodology presented here.     

COMMENTS ON SANBORN BROWN'S “CAN PHYSICS CONTRIBUTE TO THEOLOGY?”

Abstract. Sanborn Brown raised in a preliminary form issues relating to science and religion that have been subjects for increasingly more sophisticated discussion over the intervening forty years.     

习得无助理论模型的演变与争议

习得无助理论是由美国心理学家马丁．塞里格曼于上世纪60年代提出、而后在美国以至全世界引起广泛研究热潮的一种心理学理论,围绕着习得无助产生的机制及实验操作中的关键变量,形成了许多有价值的理论模型。该研究介绍了这些理论模型的起源、发展与演变．以及无助现象对人们的认知、情绪和动机造成的损害,为我们在临床上诊断和治疗抑郁提供了一个新的视角,同时为预测和矫治学生的习得无肋感提供了方法上的借鉴。     

Models for a paraconsistent set theory

In this paper the existence of natural models for a paraconsistent version of naive set theory is discussed. These stand apart from the previous attempts due to the presence of some non-monotonic ingredients in the comprehension scheme they fulfill. Particularly, it is proved here that allowing the equality relation in formulae defining sets, within an extensional universe, compels the use of non-monotonic operators. By reviewing the preceding attempts, we show how our models can naturally be obtained as fixed points of some functor acting on a suitable category (stressing the use of fixed-point arguments in obtaining such alternative semantics).     

A cognitive model in which representations are images

Interpretations of images of the brain are starting to reveal the conceptual tasks in which the person was engaged at the time of imaging. Existing mathematical models can explain the patterns of activity observed in such images in terms of the coherent activity of large populations of neurons, but not in terms of cognition. This paper is an early investigation into how such patterns might provide the internal representations for a cognitive system. Probes, working memories and memories are all represented as images. The accompanying process model describes how attention is set according to the contents of working memory, how attention determines what parts of the probe are memorised, how memories are activated according to similarity to the probe in areas in attention, and how working memory is managed. The model is demonstrated on re-creations of classic simulations of recognition memory and categorisation.     

Models Clarified: Responding to Langdon Gilkey

We respond to concerns raised by Langdon Gilkey. The discussion addresses the nature of theological thinking today, the question of truth within the situation of pluralism, the identity and difference between theological models and scientific models, and the proposed methods for testing theological models.     

情境模型中的时间表征研究

阅读理解中情境模型的建构是当今阅读研究的热点 ,自Zwaan等人提出事件标记模型理论以来 ,很多研究者对影响情境模型建构的空间维度进行了深入的研究 ,尽管对情境模型中时间维度的研究相对缺乏 ,但仍得出了一些有价值的研究成果。本文对情境模型中时间表征的理论假设、实验研究、技术手段及主要研究结论作了介绍和评析 ,并对未来的研究方向进行了展望。     

Reducing ethnic prejudice: an evaluation of seven recommended principles for incorporation in public campaigns

The present study investigated the effects of seven principles drawn from cognitive models of ethnic prejudice, general information processing models and persuasion models, on levels of ethnic prejudice. It was hypothesized that exposure to cue cards incorporating these principles would result in lower levels of prejudice than cue cards which did not incorporate the principles. A total of 400 caucasian participants were randomly assigned to experimental conditions (where participants were exposed to a cue card incorporating or omitting each of the seven principles), or the control condition (with no cue card exposure), and completed a questionnaire measuring ethnic prejudice. Results revealed that the absence of the principles in the cards led in several cases to unwanted negative effects (higher levels of prejudice than the control group). Reasons for these findings and implications for launching poster campaigns to reduce ethnic prejudice are discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Illustrating a Hierarchical Approach for Selecting Personality Traits in Personnel Decisions: An Application of the 3M Model

Recent research indicates that managers are not aware of the latest developments in theory regarding the use of personality inventories in personnel selection decisions. This article presents a systematic approach to selecting traits for use in personnel selection that is based on recent developments in hierarchical personality models. Results from a study of real estate sales associates indicate that the new approach does have much to offer the area. Results are discussed along with managerial implications.     

The Logic of Causal Explanation An Axiomatization

Three-valued (strong-Kleene) modal logic provides the foundation for a new approach to formalizing causal explanation as a relation between partial situations. The approach makes fine-grained distinctions between aspects of events, even between aspects that are equivalent in classical logic. The framework can accommodate a variety of ontologies concerning the relata of causal explanation. I argue, however, for a tripartite ontology of objects corresponding to sentential nominals: facts, tropes (or facta or states of affairs), and situations (or events). I axiomatize the relations and use canonical models to demonstrate completeness.