Psychoanalysis and Diplomacy: Part III. Potentials for and Obstacles Against Collaboration

Given the pervasive influence of Realpolitik over government and the study of international relations, and some inherent difficulties within the field of psychoanalysis, it is not surprising that political science and psychoanalysis remain distant cousins. Part III in this series on diplomacy and psychoanalysis discusses obstacles against collaboration between these two disciplines, but also points to areas where collaboration is possible and can be useful.     

A local model of concurrent performance

Concurrent procedures may be conceptualized as consisting of two pairs of schedules with only one pair operating at a time. One schedule of each pair arranges reinforcers for staying in the current alternative, and the other schedule arranges reinforcers for switching to the other alternative. These pairs alternate operation as the animal switches between choices. This analysis of the contingencies suggests that variables operating within an alternative produce behavior that conforms to the generalized matching law. Rats were exposed to one pair of stay and switch schedules in each condition, and the probabilities of reinforcement varied across conditions. Both run length and visit duration were power functions of the ratio of the probabilities of reinforcement for staying and switching. The local model, a model of performance on concurrent procedures, was derived from this power function. Performance on concurrent schedules was synthesized from the performances on the separate pairs. Both the generalized matching law and the local model fitted the synthesized concurrent performances. These results are consistent with the view that the contingencies in the alternative, the probability of stay and switch reinforcement, are responsible for performance consistent with the generalized matching law. These results are compatible with momentary maximizing and molar maximizing accounts of concurrent performance. Models of concurrent performance that posit comparisons among the alternatives are not easily applied to these results.     

Effects of decision-making on reactions to an evaluational stressor

The present study tested the hypothesis that an opportunity to make decisions enhances perceived control. This hypothesis predicts that decision-making will reduce the adverse effects of stress. Subjects worked on an intellectual task and their stress reactions were assessed using subjective and behavioral measures. Decision-making improved the highly anxious subjects' persistence with the task. This finding supports the hypothesis. However, less anxious subjects persisted less after being allowed to make decisions. Several explanations positing possible cognitive and motivational processes of the less anxious subjects are offered.     

The role of parents' self-esteem, mastery-orientation and social background in their parenting styles

In order to examine the extent to which parents' levels of education, financial resources, self-esteem, and their mastery-orientation versus task-avoidance are associated with their parenting styles and parental stress, data from two studies were analyzed. In Study I, parents of 105 6 to 7-year old children were asked to fill in scales measuring their parenting styles and parental stress, mastery-orientation, financial resources, and their level of education. In Study II, 235 parents were asked to fill in the same scales. An identical pattern of results was found in the two studies. Parents' self-esteem and their use of mastery-oriented strategy were found to be associated with authoritative parenting and low parental stress, whereas parents' low level of education was related to an authoritarian parenting style. The results further showed that the impact of parents' self-esteem on authoritative parenting and parental stress was partly mediated by their use of a mastery-oriented strategy.     

Bayesian estimation and testing of structural equation models

The Gibbs sampler can be used to obtain samples of arbitrary size from the posterior distribution over the parameters of a structural equation model (SEM) given covariance data and a prior distribution over the parameters. Point estimates, standard deviations and interval estimates for the parameters can be computed from these samples. If the prior distribution over the parameters is uninformative, the posterior is proportional to the likelihood, and asymptotically the inferences based on the Gibbs sample are the same as those based on the maximum likelihood solution, for example, output from LISREL or EQS. In small samples, however, the likelihood surface is not Gaussian and in some cases contains local maxima. Nevertheless, the Gibbs sample comes from the correct posterior distribution over the parameters regardless of the sample size and the shape of the likelihood surface. With an informative prior distribution over the parameters, the posterior can be used to make inferences about the parameters underidentified models, as we illustrate on a simple errors-in-variables model.We thank David Spiegelhalter for suggesting applying the Gibbs sampler to structural equation models to the first author at a 1994 workshop in Wiesbaden. We thank Ulf Böckenholt, Chris Meek, Marijtje van Duijn, Clark Glymour, Ivo Molenaar, Steve Klepper, Thomas Richardson, Teddy Seidenfeld, and Tom Snijders for helpful discussions, mathematical advice, and critiques of earlier drafts of this paper.     

Perfectionism and School Counselors: Differences in Stress,Coping, and Burnout

The authors examined perfectionism and its association with perceived stress, coping processes, and burnout in a sample of 298 practicing school counselors. Latent profile analysis based on measures of perfectionism supported a 3‐class model made up of adaptive perfectionists, maladaptive perfectionists, and nonperfectionists. Among these groups, the authors found significant differences in perceived stress, coping processes, and burnout. Implications for the school counseling profession are discussed.     

Examination of the PC-PTSD in previously deployed Air Force Medical Service personnel

This study assessed the performance of the PC-PTSD in diagnosing postdeployment posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in a cohort of Air Force Medical Services personnel (N = 18,530). The prevalence of PTSD in the cohort was 5.18% based on medical record data. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.69, indicating poor classification accuracy. Sensitivity was 47.55%, specificity was 90.68%, positive predictive value was 21.79%, and negative predictive value was 96.94%. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 5.10 and 0.58, respectively. Several risk factors were found to be associated with a diagnosis of postdeployment PTSD: being a nurse, being enlisted in the medical service career field, being enlisted in the mental health service career field, those over age 30, being a member of the Active Duty service component, and having one’s first deployment be to Iraq. Being an officer was found to be a protective characteristic. These factors could potentially improve screening for PTSD among Air Force healthcare personnel.     

Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.