Improving judgmental forecasts with judgmental bootstrapping and task feedback support

This study examines the utility of two widely advocated methods for supporting judgmental forecasts—providing task feedback and providing judgmental bootstrapping support. In a simulated laboratory based experiment that focused on producing composite sales forecasts from three individual components, we compared the effectiveness of these two methods in improving final judgmental forecasts. In the presence of cognitive feedback task, feedback led to better forecasts than providing judgmental bootstrap forecasts. Simply providing bootstrap forecasts was of no additional benefit over a control condition. This was true in terms of the Brunswik Lens model measures of achievement, knowledge, and consistency, and in terms of forecast accuracy. This occurred both in stable environments and when special events (unusual one‐time events requiring adjustments to the forecasts) arose. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

行为责任归因与处罚公平性、严格判断的关系

本研究采取问卷法,选取99名管理者和被管理者作为被试,探讨行为责任归因与处罚公平性、严格程度判断之问的关系。研究发现：（1）公平性判断与消极结果相关,对取得同样消极结果的两个行动者采取相同的处罚（但解雇除外）更为公平;（2）公平性判断与行动者对其消极结果是否负责有关,处罚三（对无责任者的处罚比有责任者的处罚轻）与处罚一（对无责任者的处罚比有责任者的处罚重）两种情形F公平性判断之间存在显著性差异,处罚三中公平性判断得分较高;（3）严格程度判断与行动者是否负有责任无关,只与总的处罚严重性程度相关。     

Parental Morality and Family Processes as Predictors of Adolescent Morality

This study investigated the extent to which parents' moral thought and family processes are involved in the socialization of adolescent moral thought. Olson et al's (1992) Circumplex Model and White's (2000) Family Socialization Model provided the conceptual framework for predicting that families high in cohesion, adaptability and communication would facilitate the transmission of moral values between parents and adolescents more effectively than families low in these family processes. Results involving 218 adolescent-parent dyads revealed that perceived family cohesion and communication moderated the father-adolescent moral thought relationship; that several facets of both parents' morality significantly predicted adolescents' morality; and that all three family processes significantly predicted certain aspects of adolescent morality. Therefore the extent to which parents' socialize adolescent moral values will vary according to each parent's moral view, the strength of family processes and the content of moral thought being transmitted.     

The effects of process and outcome accountability on judgment process and performance

This article challenges the view that it is always better to hold decision makers accountable for their decision process rather than their decision outcomes. In three multiple-cue judgment studies, the authors show that process accountability, relative to outcome accountability, consistently improves judgment quality in relatively simple elemental tasks. However, this performance advantage of process accountability does not generalize to more complex configural tasks. This is because process accountability improves an analytical process based on cue abstraction, while it does not change a holistic process based on exemplar memory. Cue abstraction is only effective in elemental tasks (in which outcomes are a linear additive combination of cues) but not in configural tasks (in which outcomes depend on interactions between the cues). In addition, Studies 2 and 3 show that the extent to which process and outcome accountability affect judgment quality depends on individual differences in analytical intelligence and rational thinking style.     

学习时间在重复学习范式中的监测功能

通过让被试在自定步速的学习条件下完成重复学习任务,考察在重复学习范式中学习时间的监测功能。研究发现：在两次学习中,学习时间与学习判断等级和回忆成绩均有显著负相关;在第二次学习中,线索有效性不变,而随着线索利用率的提高,学习判断预测的准确性也显著提高。研究结果验证了学习时间的监测功能。     

学校道德氛围知觉对道德发展影响的教育干预实验

目的 探讨学生的学校道德氛围知觉与其道德发展的关系。方法 采用学校道德氛围知觉问卷、SROM-SF问卷及自编情境故事,对100名中学生进行了干预实验,运用SPSS 15.0对数据进行统计分析。结果 通过干预,学生的学校道德氛围知觉水平有了不同程度的提高;学生对学校道德氛围的知觉水平提高后,其道德判断能力有了显著发展。结论 学生的学校道德氛围知觉影响其道德判断能力的发展。     

青少年道德推脱与攻击行为：道德判断调节作用的性别差异

通过对756名青少年的问卷调查,考察了道德判断在青少年道德推脱与攻击行为之间调节作用的性别差异。结果发现:(1)道德推脱会对青少年的攻击行为产生显著的正向影响,道德判断不会对青少年的攻击行为产生显著的影响,但是道德判断可以显著地调节道德推脱与攻击行为之间的关系;(2)道德判断在调节道德推脱与攻击行为之间的关系时存在明显的性别差异,较高的道德判断能力难以削弱道德推脱对男生攻击行为的正向影响,但可以明显地削弱道德推脱对女生攻击行为的正向影响。     

学习次数和材料难度对学习判断绝对准确性的影响

本研究采用5（学习次数）×2（材料难度）被试内设计,考察材料难度和学习次数对即刻和延迟学习判断绝对准确性的影响。45名大学生被试参加实验,共收集有效数据37个。结果表明：（1） 即刻条件下,高、低难度词对都出现了练习伴随低估效应;（2） 延迟条件下,高、低难度词对均未出现练习伴随低估效应。对低难度词对的学习判断准确预测了回忆成绩,高难度词对则出现了练习伴随高估效应;（3） 随着学习次数的增加,不同难度词对在即刻条件下的练习伴随低估效应趋于消失,延迟条件下高难度词对的练习伴随高估效应趋于消失。     

坏念头，罪几何？意图信息的强弱变化对大学生道德判断的影响

成人在对他人的行为进行道德判断时,对意图和结果信息的利用存在不稳定的现象。Cushman提出道德判断双加工过程理论,认为当存在重大负性后果时,需要综合考虑意图和结果信息;而当不存在负性后果时,主要关注意图信息。本研究通过句式变化操控意图信息的明显性,分别考察了两组大学生在对道德情景进行判断时意图信息强弱变化所造成的影响,结果发现：（1）对中性行为进行道德判断时,突显负性意图信息后被试会增加道德谴责;（2）对负性行为进行道德判断时,道德谴责程度没有因意图信息明显性的改变而发生显著变化。此研究结果表明,在行为结果为中性时,人们主要利用意图的信息做出道德判断,但此时对负性意图的谴责程度并不稳定,容易受明显性变化的干扰。