Comparing Data Sets: Implicit Summaries of the Statistical Properties of Number Sets

Comparing datasets, that is, sets of numbers in context, is a critical skill in higher order cognition. Although much is known about how people compare single numbers, little is known about how number sets are represented and compared. We investigated how subjects compared datasets that varied in their statistical properties, including ratio of means, coefficient of variation, and number of observations, by measuring eye fixations, accuracy, and confidence when assessing differences between number sets. Results indicated that participants implicitly create and compare approximate summary values that include information about mean and variance, with no evidence of explicit calculation. Accuracy and confidence increased, while the number of fixations decreased as sets became more distinct (i.e., as mean ratios increase and variance decreases), demonstrating that the statistical properties of datasets were highly related to comparisons. The discussion includes a model proposing how reasoners summarize and compare datasets within the architecture for approximate number representation.     

Estimation and visualization of confusability matrices from adaptive measurement data

We present a simple but effective method based on Luce’s choice axiom [Luce, R.D. (1959). Individual choice behavior: A theoretical analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons] for consistent estimation of the pairwise confusabilities of items in a multiple-choice recognition task with arbitrarily chosen choice-sets. The method combines the exact (non-asymptotic) Bayesian way of assessing uncertainty with the unbiasedness emphasized in the classical frequentist approach.We apply the method to data collected using an adaptive computer game designed for prevention of reading disability. A player’s estimated confusability of phonemes (or more accurately, phoneme-grapheme connections) and larger units of language is visualized in an easily understood way with color cues and explicit indication of the accuracy of the estimates. Visualization of learning-related changes in the player’s performance is considered.The empirical validity of the choice axiom is evaluated using the game data itself. The axiom appears to hold reasonably well although a small systematic violation is observable for the smallest choice-set sizes.     

Beta-MPT: Multinomial processing tree models for addressing individual differences

Traditionally, multinomial processing tree (MPT) models are applied to groups of homogeneous participants, where all participants within a group are assumed to have identical MPT model parameter values. This assumption is unreasonable when MPT models are used for clinical assessment, and it often may be suspect for applications to ordinary psychological experiments. One method for dealing with parameter variability is to incorporate random effects assumptions into a model. This is achieved by assuming that participants’ parameters are drawn independently from some specified multivariate hyperdistribution. In this paper we explore the assumption that the hyperdistribution consists of independent beta distributions, one for each MPT model parameter. These beta-MPT models are ‘hierarchical models’, and their statistical inference is different from the usual approaches based on data aggregated over participants. The paper provides both classical (frequentist) and hierarchical Bayesian approaches to statistical inference for beta-MPT models. In simple cases the likelihood function can be obtained analytically; however, for more complex cases, Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are constructed to assist both approaches to inference. Examples based on clinical assessment studies are provided to demonstrate the advantages of hierarchical MPT models over aggregate analysis in the presence of individual differences.     

《心理统计学》教学内容的新探索

本文在对当前国内外主要心理统计学教材进行比较的基础上,指出与上个世纪八十年代的心理统计学教材内容相比较,在内容上的新探索主要体现在（1）由“假设检验”的内容中发展出“统计检验力”和“效果大小”的统计指标和估计方法;（2）引进一般线性模型来统合方差分析和回归分析这两种统计方法;（3）适度增加一些“多元统计分析”的内容等三个方面.本文对前两个方面的新内容作了简要评述,并对教材内容的编排方面提出了新的思路.     

A Test of Order-Constrained Hypotheses for Circular Data With Applications to Human Movement Science

Researchers studying the movements of the human body often encounter data measured in angles (e.g., angular displacements of joints). The evaluation of these circular data requires special statistical methods. The authors introduce a new test for the analysis of order-constrained hypotheses for circular data. Through this test, researchers can evaluate their expectations regarding the outcome of an experiment directly by representing their ideas in the form of a hypothesis containing inequality constraints. The resulting data analysis is generally more powerful than one using standard null hypothesis testing. Two examples of circular data from human movement science are presented to illustrate the use of the test. Results from a simulation study show that the test performs well.     

Using Criminalization and Due Process to Reduce Scientific Misconduct

The issue of how to best minimize scientific misconduct remains a controversial topic among bioethicists, professors, policymakers, and attorneys. This paper suggests that harsher criminal sanctions against misconduct, better protections for whistleblowers, and the creation of due process standards for misconduct investigations are urgently needed. Although the causes of misconduct and estimates of problem remain varied, the literature suggests that scientific misconduct—fraud, fabrication, and plagiarism of scientific research—continues to damage public health and trust in science. Providing stricter criminal statutes against misconduct is necessary to motivate whistleblowers and deter wrongdoers, and the provision of basic due process protections is necessary for ensuring a fair and balanced misconduct investigation.     

Nonblurred regions show priority for gaze direction over spatial blur

The human eye continuously forms images of our 3D environment using a finite and dynamically changing depth of focus. Since different objects in our environment reside at different depth planes, the resulting retinal images consist of both focused and spatially blurred objects concurrently. Here, we wanted to measure what effect such a mixed visual diet may have on the pattern of eye movements. For that, we have constructed composite stimuli, each containing an intact photograph and several progressively blurred versions of it, all arranged in a 3?×?3 square array and presented simultaneously as a single image. We have measured eye movements for 7 such composite stimuli as well as for their corresponding root mean square (RMS) contrast-equated versions to control for any potential contrast variations as a result of the blurring. We have found that when observers are presented with such arrays of blurred and nonblurred images they fixate significantly more frequently on the stimulus regions that had little or no blur at all (p?<?.001). A similar pattern of fixations was found for the RMS contrast-equated versions of the stimuli indicating that the observed distributions of fixations is not simply the result of variations in image contrasts due to spatial blurring. Further analysis revealed that, during each 5 second presentation, the image regions containing little or no spatial blur were fixated first while other regions with larger amounts of blur were fixated later, if fixated at all. The results contribute to the increasing list of stimulus parameters that affect patterns of eye movements during scene perception.     

多级属性Q矩阵的验证与估计

多级属性是将诊断测验中传统的二值(即两种水平, 通常定义为0和1)属性定义为多值(多个水平可以为0, 1, …), 它不但可以描述学生对于知识属性是否掌握, 而且可以描述学生在属性上的掌握程度, 这样使得诊断测验能提供给被试更丰富的知识掌握详情。本文将适用于二级属性Q矩阵的统计量(S统计量)拓展到多级属性下的Q矩阵验证和估计, 在两种常见的条件下, 设计了两种估计算法：联合估计算法和在线估计算法。模拟实验结果表明：联合估计算法适用于对专家界定的初始Q矩阵进行验证, 当初始Q矩阵中包含较少的错误时, 通过联合估计算法有很大可能恢复正确的Q矩阵; 在线估计算法适用于对“新项目”进行属性向量和项目参数的在线标定, 基于一定数量的“基础项目”, 在线估计算法对于新项目的估计也能达到较满意的成功率。实证数据分析则进一步展示了该方法的使用。