A modification of Feldt's test of the equality of two dependent alpha coefficients

The available statistical tests of the equality of nonindependent alpha reliability coefficients require that the product of the number of test parts times the number of subjects be quite large—1000 or more. A modification of one of these tests is derived which avoids this limitation. Monte Carlo studies indicate that the modified test effectively controls the Type I error rate with as few as 2 or 3 test parts and 50 subjects. This means the modified test can be safely employed in comparisons between interrater reliabilities.     

A case study of expert judgment: Economists' probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts

In this case study of economists' forecasts concerning economic downturn, we examine key issues concerning the psychology of prediction and the controversy surrounding the value of expertise in forecasting. We examine when experts' knowledge promotes forecast accuracy and whether biases found in psychological studies (including underutilization of relevant base rates and tendencies to extreme prediction) occur in these economic forecasts. Experts' forecasts were compared to forecasts derived from base-rate models that relied on the historical frequencies of economic downturns. The performance patterns of the experts and models crossed over the forecast horizon. Experts outperformed models in shorter-term forecasting, whereas models outperformed experts in longer-term forecasting. These results highlight the abilities and limits of experts and models in prediction and the sources of their inaccuracy.     

A CRITIQUE OF BOROWITZ'S POSTMODERN JEWISH THEOLOGY

Abstract. Borowitz's book is primarily a systematic response by a liberal Jewish theologian to his perceived challenges from rationalism on one hand and postmodernism on the other. It is within this context that Borowitz discusses issues of the relationship between modern science and Judaism. The first part of this essay is a summary of Borowitz's book. Here I locate Borowitz's place in the general discipline of Jewish philosophy and theology. The second part of the paper is a critique of Borowitz's discussion of postmodernism and liberalism. It is in this concluding section that the issues raised by contemporary science for Jewish religious thought are discussed.     

Analyzing preventive trials with generalized additive models

Described a new class of nonparametric regression procedures called generalized additive models (Hastie and Tibshirani, 1991) for assessing intervention effects in mental health preventive field trials. Such models are often better than analysis of covariance models for examining intervention effects adjusted for one or more baseline characteristics and for assessing potential interactions between the intervention and baseline characteristics. Because of these advantages, generalized additive models are important tools analysts should consider in evaluating preventive field trials. We apply generalized additive models as well as more standard linear models to data from a preventive trial aimed at improving mental health and school performance outcomes through a universal intervention in first and second grades. Practical guidance is given to researchers regarding when generalized additive models would be beneficial.     

TOWARD A SOUND PERSPECTIVE ON MODERN PHYSICS: CAPRA'S POPULARIZATION OF MYSTICISM AND THEOLOGICAL APPROACHES REEXAMINED

Abstract. Fritjof Capra's The Tao of Physics , one of several popularizations paralleling Eastern mysticism and modern physics, is critiqued, demonstrating that Capra gives little attention to the differing philosophies of physics he employs, utilizing whatever interpretation suits his purposes, without prior justification. The same critique is applied and similar conclusions drawn, about some recent attempts at relating theology and physics. In contrast, we propose the possibility of maintaining a cogent relationship between these disciplines by employing theological hypotheses to account for aspects of physics that are free from interpretive difficulties, such as the ability to create mathematical structures with extraordinary predictive success.     

Methodological Issues in Treatment Research for Anxiety Disorders in Youth

This article identifies and addresses three methodological domains relevant to the treatment of anxiety disorders in youth: (a) procedural matters, (b) the assessment of anxious distress, and (c) the analysis of treatment-produced change. Procedural topics include the need to manualize treatment, have diversity among participants and comparability of the duration of treatment and control conditions, and control for medication status. Multiple-method measurement issues include child and parent reports, observations, and structured interviewing. Our examination of change issues considers comorbidity, analyzing the intent-to-treat sample, treatment spillover, and clinical as well as statistical significance. Problems are identified and potential ameliorative strategies are offered.     

On the analysis of studies of choice

In a review of 103 sets of data from 23 different studies of choice, Baum (1979) concluded that whereas undermatching was most commonly observed for responses, the time measure generally conformed to the matching relation. A reexamination of the evidence presented by Baum concludes that undermatching is the most commonly observed finding for both measures. Use of the coefficient of determination by both Baum (1979) and de Villiers (1977) for assessing when matching occurs is criticized on statistical grounds. An alternative to the loss-in-predictability criterion used by Baum (1979) is proposed. This alternative statistic has a simple operational meaning and is related to the usual F-ratio test. It can therefore be used as a formal test of the hypothesis that matching occurs. Baum (1979) also suggests that slope values of between .90 and 1.11 can be considered good approximations to matching. It is argued that the establishment of a fixed interval as a criterion for determining when matching occurs, is inappropriate. A confidence interval based on the data from any given experiment is suggested as a more useful method of assessment.     

基于干扰物特征的统计规则对注意抑制效应的影响

采用经典的额外单例范式的变式, 通过操纵基于干扰物颜色的统计规则, 考察其对注意抑制效应的影响。结果发现：(1)当迫使被试采取特征探测策略时, 与无颜色独子的条件相比, 被试在所有呈现独子的条件中反应都显著较快; (2)与呈现低概率颜色独子条件相比, 呈现高概率颜色独子条件下被试的反应显著较快。研究表明, 统计规则对注意的影响不局限于刺激位置, 基于干扰物特征的统计规则也会影响注意抑制效应的大小。