心理研究中统计方法应用的元分析——以《心理学报》《心理科学》(1998-2008)统计方法应用为例

统计方法在心理研究中得到了广泛的应用。统计方法的应用,除了具备一定的统计方法知识外,还应当了解统计方法应用的必要前提条件。通过调查、分析国内最具代表性的两种杂志《心理学报》、《心理科学》(1998 2008)应用了统计方法的论文(或报告),主要了解哪些统计方法得到最多的应用以及发现应用中存在的一些问题,并对此作了评述。目的是使心理学研究者在心理研究中能更好地应用统计方法分析问题,解决问题。     

Statistical modelling in the investigation of stranger rape

A sample of stranger rape offences (n = 271) registered in the Dutch Violence Crime Linkage Analysis System database in the Netherlands between 1997 and 2007 was studied with the objective of developing statistical models, which give an indication of the probability of basic offender characteristics. Observable crime characteristics concerning the modus operandi, interaction between the offender and the victim, violence, precautionary measures, and sexual behaviours were selected in the dataset. Offender characteristics were selected based on their usefulness for the police organisation in narrowing the scope of a criminal investigation. Spatial behaviour, criminal history, and living situation of the offender were selected. From the predictive models, four out of five achieved a correct rate of over 70%, and all models predicted better than the best guess method. The proposed models for distance and prior convictions for violence seem particularly promising. Both these models show an improvement of correctly predicted offender characteristics of more than 20 percentile points compared with that which could have been estimated based on the average in the total sample. The predictive value of the models needs to be tested further with ‘new offences’, which were not used to construct the model. In general, the current study supports the finding that crime characteristics can be used to get an indication of the probability of certain offender characteristics. Nevertheless, for an understanding of the relationship between the crime characteristics and offender characteristics, a further development of a theoretical framework is urgently necessary. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What is “Intervention”?

I begin by noting that several theologians and others object to special divine action (divine intervention and action beyond conservation and creation) on the grounds that it is incompatible with science. These theologians are thinking of classical Newtonian science; I argue that in fact classical science is in no way incompatible with special divine action, including miracle. What is incompatible with special divine action is the Laplacean picture, which involves the causal closure of the universe. I then note that contemporary, quantum mechanical science doesn't even initially appear to be incompatible with special divine action. Nevertheless, many who are well aware of the quantum mechanical revolution (including some members of the Special Divine Action Project) still find a problem with special divine action, hoping to find an understanding of it that doesn't involve divine intervention. I argue that their objections to intervention are not sound. Furthermore, it isn't even possible to say what intervention is, given the quantum mechanical framework. I conclude by offering an account of special divine action that isn't open to their objections to intervention.     

Role of surface roughness in hysteresis during adhesive elastic contact

In experiments that involve contact with adhesion between two surfaces, as found in atomic force microscopy or nanoindentation, two distinct contact force (P) versus indentation-depth (h) curves are often measured depending on whether the indenter moves towards or away from the sample. The origin of this hysteresis is not well understood and is often attributed to moisture, plasticity or viscoelasticity. Here we report experiments which show that hysteresis can exist in the absence of these effects, and that its magnitude depends on surface roughness. We develop a theoretical model in which the hysteresis appears as the result of a series of surface instabilities, in which the contact area grows or recedes by a finite amount. The model can be used to estimate material properties from contact experiments even when the measured P–h curves are not unique.     

Psychologists' perspectives on the diagnostic classification of mental disorders: Results from the WHO‐IUPsyS Global Survey

This study examined psychologists' views and practices regarding diagnostic classification systems for mental and behavioral disorders so as to inform the development of the ICD‐11 by the World Health Organization (WHO). WHO and the International Union of Psychological Science (IUPsyS) conducted a multilingual survey of 2155 psychologists from 23 countries, recruited through their national psychological associations. Sixty percent of global psychologists routinely used a formal classification system, with ICD‐10 used most frequently by 51% and DSM‐IV by 44%. Psychologists viewed informing treatment decisions and facilitating communication as the most important purposes of classification, and preferred flexible diagnostic guidelines to strict criteria. Clinicians favorably evaluated most diagnostic categories, but identified a number of problematic diagnoses. Substantial percentages reported problems with crosscultural applicability and cultural bias, especially among psychologists outside the USA and Europe. Findings underscore the priority of clinical utility and professional and cultural differences in international psychology. Implications for ICD‐11 development and dissemination are discussed.     

The Cognitive Failures Questionnaire Revisited: Dimensions and Correlates

The authors reexamined the factor structure of the Cognitive Failures Questionnaire (D. E. Broadbent, P. F. Cooper, P. Fitzgerald, & K. R. Parkes, 1982) and its correlates. The Cognitive Failures Questionnaire was designed to assess a person's likelihood of committing an error in the completion of an everyday task. A principal components factor analysis with varimax rotation yielded 4 internally consistent, interpretable factors. These factors were labeled Memory, Distractibility, Blunders, and (memory for) Names. This study lends partial support for the factor analytic solution proposed by L. K. Pollina, A. L. Greene, R. H. Tunick, and J. M. Puckett (1992). In addition, it extends previous findings by providing initial evidence for the construct validity of the factors established by correlating factor scores with measures of other related constructs (i.e., boredom proneness, attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder. Type A behavior pattern).     

双语脑的研究:不同的语言是否有不同的皮层机制?

随着认知神经科学技术的发展,研究者对“不同语言是否有不同的大脑皮层机制?”这个问题的研究也进一步深入。一系列的神经心理学和脑成像研究表明,语言获得的时问、流利程度、获得方式等都可能成为影响语言的皮层机制的因素。     

浅析心理统计学教学设计中的统计意识

本文从教学设计的视角对下列两方面进行了理性的分析：(1)心理实验设计与心理统计课程的教学应逐步整合起来;(2)由于学科的特殊性,必须对统计再认识。     

New Methods for Comparing Groups

Abstract— A commonly used method for comparing groups of individuals is the analysis of variance (ANOVA) F test. When the assumptions underlying the derivation of this test are true, its power, meaning its probability of detecting true differences among the groups, competes well with all other methods that might be used. But when these assumptions are false, its power can be relatively low. Many new statistical methods have been proposed—ones that are aimed at achieving about the same amount of power when the assumptions of the F test are true but which have the potential of high power in situations where the F test performs poorly. A brief summary of some relevant issues and recent developments is provided. Some related issues are discussed and implications for future research are described.     

Discriminating the integrated orientation of line segments and its statistical efficiencies

Abstract:  We carried out two experiments to investigate both how efficiencies fluctuate due to the experimental conditions and how we determine the representative efficiency among such various efficiencies in the discrimination task of line orientations. In Experiment 1, line segments were displayed simultaneously and dispersed spatially, while in Experiment 2, line segments were displayed sequentially. In both experiments, statistical efficiencies were calculated. In Experiment 1, efficiencies initially increased as stimulus duration increased, and decreased as the number of lines increased to a point where the efficiencies remained almost stable despite additional changes of stimulus duration or number of lines. In contrast, in Experiment 2, efficiencies were stable for almost all numbers of sequentially displayed lines, except for the condition that four lines were displayed in random positions. These stable efficiencies were approximately 50% in Experiment 1 and 30–50% in Experiment 2. We suggest that these stable efficiencies are varied in the context that human and ideal observers would adopt the same strategy regardless of the experimental conditions.