Priors in perception: Top-down modulation,Bayesian perceptual learning rate,and prediction error minimization

I discuss top-down modulation of perception in terms of a variable Bayesian learning rate, revealing a wide range of prior hierarchical expectations that can modulate perception. I then switch to the prediction error minimization framework and seek to conceive cognitive penetration specifically as prediction error minimization deviations from a variable Bayesian learning rate. This approach retains cognitive penetration as a category somewhat distinct from other top-down effects, and carves a reasonable route between penetrability and impenetrability. It prevents rampant, relativistic cognitive penetration of perception and yet is consistent with the continuity of cognition and perception.     

Improving judgmental forecasts with judgmental bootstrapping and task feedback support

This study examines the utility of two widely advocated methods for supporting judgmental forecasts—providing task feedback and providing judgmental bootstrapping support. In a simulated laboratory based experiment that focused on producing composite sales forecasts from three individual components, we compared the effectiveness of these two methods in improving final judgmental forecasts. In the presence of cognitive feedback task, feedback led to better forecasts than providing judgmental bootstrap forecasts. Simply providing bootstrap forecasts was of no additional benefit over a control condition. This was true in terms of the Brunswik Lens model measures of achievement, knowledge, and consistency, and in terms of forecast accuracy. This occurred both in stable environments and when special events (unusual one‐time events requiring adjustments to the forecasts) arose. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

有关条件推理中概率效应的实验研究

通过预备实验选取了四种不同条件概率的条件规则和四种不同前后件概率组合的条件规则作为实验材料,以大学生为被试,考察了两种概率因素(条件概率和前后件概率)对条件推理的演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)以及变通形式(四卡问题)的影响。结果表明,两种概率因素对四种条件推理的影响都非常显著,研究进一步证实了人们对四种推理的认可程度主要与范畴前提的概率成正比的结论;但概率因素对四卡问题的解决影响不明显。     

Wofür sprechen die Daten?

What Do the Data Tell Us? Justification of scientific theories is a three-place relation between data, theories, and background knowledge. Though this should be a commonplace, many methodologies in science neglect it. The article will elucidate the significance and function of our background knowledge in epistemic justification and their consequences for different scientific methodologies. It is argued that there is no simple and at the same time acceptable statistical algorithm that justifies a given theory merely on the basis of certain data. And even if we think to know the probability of a theory, that does not decide whether we should accept it or not.     

论述理解中逻辑有效与逻辑无效条件推理的研究

句法理论和心理模型理论是解释论述理解中逻辑有效 (如MP)与逻辑无效 (如AC)条件推理机制的两种不同观点。本研究通过两项实验旨在对这两种理论加以检测。实验要求被试阅读遵循MP或AC形式的故事后对故事结论的正确性做出判断。结果表明 ,在论述理解中 ,条件前提的语义联系强度影响MP推理 ;深思熟虑对MP和AC推理均产生影响。研究结果支持心理模型理论。     

左右半球在语篇理解中的协同作用

通过2例一侧颞叶损伤患者研究了一侧颞叶损伤及两侧半球的协同作用对语篇理解的影响,并探讨了发生此种影响的可能机制。结果表明一侧颞叶的损伤将导致患者语篇水平的理解障碍及语言推理能力的下降;提示语篇理解需双侧半球的协同作用,而推理能力下降可能是引发语篇理解障碍的原因之一。     

"The End of all our Exploring" in Science and Theology

Abstract. The present malaise of religion—and of theology, its intellectual formulation—in Western society is analyzed, with some personal references, especially with respect to its history in the United Kingdom and the United States. The need for a more open theology that takes account of scientific perspectives is urged. An indication of the understandings of God and of God's relation to the world which result from an exploration starting from scientific perspectives is expounded together with their fruitful relation to some traditional themes. The implications of this for the future of theology are suggested, not least in relation to the new phase, beginning in 2003, of the development of the Zygon Center for Religion and Science. In a concluding reflection the hope is expressed that the shared global experience and perspectives generated by the sciences might form a more common and acceptable starting point than hitherto for the exploration towards God of the seekers of many religious traditions and of none.     

有关条件推理认知机制的概率理论

条件推理主要有两种研究范式：演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)和变通形式(四卡问题)。已往研究主要探讨了内容因素、情境因素以及元认知因素等对条件推理的影响,形成了若干理论模型和观点。近来、Oaksford等人研究了概率因素对条件推理的影响．提出了条件概率模型。本文对这种新的研究取向作了详细的介绍和评价,并对未来研究进行了展望。     

内隐学习研究方法述评

内隐学习自提出以来就成为认知心理学研究的热点,近40年内隐学习领域的研究在本质上都基于几种经典的研究方法和实验逻辑。本文拟对这些代表性的内隐学习研究方法做系统的介绍和归纳。     

不同语言理解能力中学生的语篇连贯推理

该研究使用移动视窗技术考察了初二和高一年级中的高低语言理解能力被试语篇阅读过程中将当前信息与背景信息之间建立联系,建构语篇连贯表征的连贯推理加工特点。结果表明：(1)不同语言理解能力个体对语篇中明确提及信息的记忆无差异,但在阅读过程中进行连贯推理上存在差异。(2)个体进行连贯推理的速度和准确度会随年龄增加有所提高。