Statistical modelling in the investigation of stranger rape

A sample of stranger rape offences (n = 271) registered in the Dutch Violence Crime Linkage Analysis System database in the Netherlands between 1997 and 2007 was studied with the objective of developing statistical models, which give an indication of the probability of basic offender characteristics. Observable crime characteristics concerning the modus operandi, interaction between the offender and the victim, violence, precautionary measures, and sexual behaviours were selected in the dataset. Offender characteristics were selected based on their usefulness for the police organisation in narrowing the scope of a criminal investigation. Spatial behaviour, criminal history, and living situation of the offender were selected. From the predictive models, four out of five achieved a correct rate of over 70%, and all models predicted better than the best guess method. The proposed models for distance and prior convictions for violence seem particularly promising. Both these models show an improvement of correctly predicted offender characteristics of more than 20 percentile points compared with that which could have been estimated based on the average in the total sample. The predictive value of the models needs to be tested further with ‘new offences’, which were not used to construct the model. In general, the current study supports the finding that crime characteristics can be used to get an indication of the probability of certain offender characteristics. Nevertheless, for an understanding of the relationship between the crime characteristics and offender characteristics, a further development of a theoretical framework is urgently necessary. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Psychologists' perspectives on the diagnostic classification of mental disorders: Results from the WHO‐IUPsyS Global Survey

This study examined psychologists' views and practices regarding diagnostic classification systems for mental and behavioral disorders so as to inform the development of the ICD‐11 by the World Health Organization (WHO). WHO and the International Union of Psychological Science (IUPsyS) conducted a multilingual survey of 2155 psychologists from 23 countries, recruited through their national psychological associations. Sixty percent of global psychologists routinely used a formal classification system, with ICD‐10 used most frequently by 51% and DSM‐IV by 44%. Psychologists viewed informing treatment decisions and facilitating communication as the most important purposes of classification, and preferred flexible diagnostic guidelines to strict criteria. Clinicians favorably evaluated most diagnostic categories, but identified a number of problematic diagnoses. Substantial percentages reported problems with crosscultural applicability and cultural bias, especially among psychologists outside the USA and Europe. Findings underscore the priority of clinical utility and professional and cultural differences in international psychology. Implications for ICD‐11 development and dissemination are discussed.     

The Cognitive Failures Questionnaire Revisited: Dimensions and Correlates

The authors reexamined the factor structure of the Cognitive Failures Questionnaire (D. E. Broadbent, P. F. Cooper, P. Fitzgerald, & K. R. Parkes, 1982) and its correlates. The Cognitive Failures Questionnaire was designed to assess a person's likelihood of committing an error in the completion of an everyday task. A principal components factor analysis with varimax rotation yielded 4 internally consistent, interpretable factors. These factors were labeled Memory, Distractibility, Blunders, and (memory for) Names. This study lends partial support for the factor analytic solution proposed by L. K. Pollina, A. L. Greene, R. H. Tunick, and J. M. Puckett (1992). In addition, it extends previous findings by providing initial evidence for the construct validity of the factors established by correlating factor scores with measures of other related constructs (i.e., boredom proneness, attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder. Type A behavior pattern).     

两种术式治疗腰椎管狭窄症的疗效分析

探讨后路椎弓根螺钉系统固定、Cage加自体骨椎间融合(PLIF)与传统术式(开窗减压、半椎板切除、全椎板截骨回植)治疗腰椎管狭窄症的疗效差异。2006年6月～2008年8月,对85例腰椎管狭窄症患者行传统术式减压(A组38例)、PLIF治疗(B组47例)。术后随访16个月～43个月,平均23个月。采用JOA评分评估疗效并行统计学分析。结果A组有效率78.94%,B组有效率95.74%。A组与B组比较,B组疗效优于A组,差异有统计学意义。因此,后路椎弓根螺钉系统固定、Cage加自体骨椎间融合治疗腰椎管狭窄症的疗效优于传统术式。     

Neural codes for conscious vision

What makes cerebral activity conscious - is it the location of the activity or the type of processing taking place? A recent study of binocular fusion adds to the increasing evidence in favour of processing, not location, as the crucial factor. It also provides evidence for the co-localization of perceptual and non-perceptual activity within individual cortical areas.     

人工腰椎间盘置换预示了腰椎融合的终结？

腰椎间盘退变性疾患的治疗方法主要是病变椎间盘的单纯切除和腰椎融合。而人工腰椎间盘置换的出现预示了脊柱外科一个新的时代的到来。简要介绍SB charité人工腰椎间盘置换技术,并分析了其早期的临床效果及可能出现的一些并发症,总结了目前人工腰椎间盘的应用所遇到的一些问题。客观的评价人工腰椎间置换技术,为临床实践和进一步研究提供依据。     

浅析心理统计学教学设计中的统计意识

本文从教学设计的视角对下列两方面进行了理性的分析：(1)心理实验设计与心理统计课程的教学应逐步整合起来;(2)由于学科的特殊性,必须对统计再认识。     

Cognitive fusion and emotion differentiation: does getting entangled with our thoughts dysregulate the generation,experience and regulation of emotion?

We tested whether cognitive fusion impairs emotion differentiation and thereby mediates relations between cognitive fusion and depression and panic symptoms among 55 adults (M_age?=?26.8 (3.9), 50.9% women). Using visual stimuli, we elicited multiple emotion states and measured (a) emotional intensity – the subjective emotion intensity of elicited emotions (i.e. Specific Emotion Intensity – SEI), as well as (b) emotional differentiation – the degree of co-activation of multiple negative emotions when a specific emotion was elicited (i.e. Multiple Emotion Co-Activation – MECA). First, as hypothesised, we found that cognitive fusion predicted lower levels of emotion differentiation (MECA). In contrast, as hypothesised, these effects were significantly greater than the (null) effects of cognitive fusion on emotion intensity (SEI). Second, as predicted, MECA, but not SEI, predicted depression and panic symptoms. Finally, we found that MECA mediated the effects of cognitive fusion on depression and panic symptoms. The present findings contribute novel, preliminary empirical insight into associations between cognitive fusion, impaired emotion differentiation and mental ill-health.     

Destruction and guilt: Splitting and reintegration in the analysis of a traumatised patient

The author traces in detail how, in the analytic relationship, she was slowly able to read aspects of the trauma as 'quotations' and gradually, through transference, transform them into a symbolic language. Split-off aggression and guilt feelings became progressively accessible to interpretation through transferential projective identifi cations. During his analysis, the patient discovered he was the child of Nazi criminals: on his mother's side they were the third generation; on his father's side, the second.     

New Methods for Comparing Groups

Abstract— A commonly used method for comparing groups of individuals is the analysis of variance (ANOVA) F test. When the assumptions underlying the derivation of this test are true, its power, meaning its probability of detecting true differences among the groups, competes well with all other methods that might be used. But when these assumptions are false, its power can be relatively low. Many new statistical methods have been proposed—ones that are aimed at achieving about the same amount of power when the assumptions of the F test are true but which have the potential of high power in situations where the F test performs poorly. A brief summary of some relevant issues and recent developments is provided. Some related issues are discussed and implications for future research are described.