Capturing the Structure of Distinct Types of Individual Differences in the Situation‐specific Experience of Emotions: The Case of Anger

The aim of this paper was to understand why some people experience certain emotions in a specific situation, whereas others do not. We postulate that these individual differences arise from individual differences in two underlying processes of emotion elicitation: (i) individual differences in the emotion components (appraisals and action tendencies) that situations activate in a person and (ii) individual differences in how these emotion components are related to subjective emotional experience. In this paper, we re‐analysed data from two studies on anger to capture the structure of these two types of individual differences by using clustering modelling techniques. Consistent results across the two studies demonstrated that individuals differ in anger because they (i) differ in how easy they experience anger‐relevant appraisals (Studies 1 and 2) and action tendencies (Study 2) in increasingly negative situations and (ii) differ in which of these components are necessary to experience anger. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Working memory components as predictors of children's mathematical word problem solving

This study determined the working memory (WM) components (executive, phonological loop, and visual–spatial sketchpad) that best predicted mathematical word problem-solving accuracy of elementary school children in Grades 2, 3, and 4 (N = 310). A battery of tests was administered to assess problem-solving accuracy, problem-solving processes, WM, reading, and math calculation. Structural equation modeling analyses indicated that (a) all three WM components significantly predicted problem-solving accuracy, (b) reading skills and calculation proficiency mediated the predictive effects of the central executive system and the phonological loop on solution accuracy, and (c) academic mediators failed to moderate the relationship between the visual–spatial sketchpad and solution accuracy. The results support the notion that all components of WM play a major role in predicting problem-solving accuracy, but basic skills acquired in specific academic domains (reading and math) can compensate for some of the influence of WM on children’s mathematical word problem solving.     

Are lies more wrong than errors? Accuracy judgments of inaccurate statements

People are often mistaken when estimating and predicting quantities, and sometimes they report values that they know are false: they lie. There exists, however, little research devoted to how such deviations are being perceived. In four vignette studies, participants were asked to rate the accuracy of inaccurate statements about quantities (prices, numbers and amounts). The results indicate that overstatements are generally judged to be more inaccurate than understatements of the same magnitude; self-favorable (optimistic) statements are considered more inaccurate than unfavorable (pessimistic) statements, and false reports (lies) are perceived to be more inaccurate than equally mistaken estimates. Lies about the future did not differ from lies about the past, but own lies were perceived as larger than the same lies attributed to another person. It is suggested that estimates are judged according to how close they come to the true values (close estimates are more correct than estimates that are less close), whereas lies are judged as deviant from truth, with less importance attached to the magnitude of the deviation.     

统计学习与双语认知的关系

统计学习是提取环境输入潜在规则的一种认知机制,其与语言的关联已得到证实。双语认知是学界关注的热点之一。统计学习与双语认知的关系如何?文章先介绍统计学习认知机制及其与语言的关系,然后从“统计学习能力可否预测二语学习表现”、“统计学习训练能否促进二语学习”和“双语经验能否提高统计学习能力”三个维度述评相关文献,并指出未来可从输入特征、个体差异和神经科学角度进一步探讨统计学习与双语认知的关系。     

基于作答时间数据的改变点分析在检测加速作答中的探索——已知和未知项目参数

相对于传统的离散作答数据, 作答时间作为连续数据, 可以提供更多信息。改变点分析(change point analysis)技术在心理和教育领域是一个比较新的技术。本文一方面对改变点分析在心理测量领域的应用进行了一个综合的总结和分析; 另一方面, 将基于作答数据的两种改变点分析统计量推广到作答时间数据, 将改变点分析技术应用到测验异常作答模式：加速作答speededness的检测上。采用两种检验方法：似然比检验和Wald检验, 分别在已知和未知项目参数的条件下, 实现异常作答模式的检测。结果表明, 所采用的方法对于加速作答行为的检测具有很高的检验力, 同时能够很好的控制I类错误率。实证数据分析进一步表明本文中所使用的方法具有应用价值。     

新世纪20年国内假设检验及其关联问题的方法学研究

新世纪20年来国内假设检验方法学研究内容可分为如下几类: 零假设显著性检验的不足、p值的使用问题、心理学研究的可重复性问题、效应量、检验力、等效性检验、其他与假设检验关联的研究。零假设显著性检验已经发展成一套组合流程: 为了保证检验力和节省成本, 实验研究需要做先验检验力分析预估样本容量, 但问卷超过160人在传统统计中就没有必要这样做。当拒绝零假设时, 应当结合效应量做出结论。当不拒绝零假设时, 需要报告后验检验力; 如果效应量中或大而检验力不够高, 则可增加被试再行分析, 但这一过程应主动披露, 报告最后的实际p值并对可能犯的第一类错误率做出评估。     

Discounting: A practical guide to multilevel analysis of choice data

Multilevel modeling provides the ability to simultaneously evaluate the discounting of individuals and groups by examining choices between smaller sooner and larger later rewards. A multilevel logistic regression approach is advocated in which sensitivity to relative reward magnitude and relative delay are considered as separate contributors to choice. Examples of how to fit choice data using multilevel logistic models are provided to help researchers in the adoption of these methods.     

Force and Directional Force Modulation Effects on Accuracy and Variability in Low-Level Pinch Force Tracking

The authors investigated how varying the required low-level forces and the direction of force change affect accuracy and variability of force production in a cyclic isometric pinch force tracking task. Eighteen healthy right-handed adult volunteers performed the tracking task over 3 different force ranges. Root mean square error and coefficient of variation were higher at lower force levels and during minimum reversals compared with maximum reversals. Overall, the thumb showed greater root mean square error and coefficient of variation scores than did the index finger during maximum reversals, but not during minimum reversals. The observed impaired performance during minimum reversals might originate from history-dependent mechanisms of force production and highly coupled 2-digit performance.