Probabilistic Cause and the Thirsty Traveler

In this paper I start by briefly presenting an analysis of token cause and of token causal relevance that I developed elsewhere, and then apply it to the famous thirsty traveler riddle. One general outcome of the analysis of causal relevance employed here is that in preemption cases (early or late) the preempted cause is not a cause since it is causally irrelevant to the effect. I consider several variations of the thirsty traveler riddle. In the first variation the first enemy emptied the canteen and the second enemy threw it away. On this variation, the act of neither enemy comes out, on the analysis employed here, as causally relevant to, and thus not as a cause of, the fact that the traveler died, but the conjunction of the two acts is a cause of it. This version is a case of mutual preemption. I argue that it has the same structure as the voting paradox, which thus has an analogous solution. In the standard version, in which the first enemy added poison to the water in the traveler's canteen, the act of the second enemy (who threw the canteen away) comes out, on the analysis used here, as causally relevant to and as a cause of the fact that the traveler died, but the act of the first enemy comes out as neither. I also make a comparison with Lewis' accounts, and discuss alternative treatments of the puzzle such as those of Hart and Honore and of Gavison, Margalit, and Ullmann-Margalit.     

Trustworthiness in explanation: The obligation to explain well

‘Scientific integrity’ certainly requires that data and references be beyond reproach. However, issues within the theory of scientific explanation suggest that there may be more to it than just this. While it is true that some contemporary, pragmatic analyses of explanation suffer from the ‘problem of relevance’ (an inability to ensure that explanations which are paradigmatic technically are relevant to the question being posed), it does not seem to be true that the addition of formal, metaphysical constraints is necessary to solve this problem. I argue that, when viewed as requests for help with an epistemic problem, explanation-seeking questions reveal the existence of a set of moral criteria centered in trust which, when satisfied, prevent trivial or irrelevant explanations from being offered, thereby broadening the concept of ‘scientific integrity’.     

Parallel path: Poliovirus research in the vaccine era

One goal of the scientific research enterprise is to improve the lives of individuals and the overall health of societies. This goal is achieved through a combination of factors, including the composition of research portfolios. In turn, this composition is determined by a variety of scientific and societal needs. The recent history of polio research highlights the complex relations between research policy, scientific progress and societal benefits. Here, we briefly review the circumstances leading to the possibility of eradication of poliovirus, evaluate the research environment that emerged following the introduction of a vaccine, and compare and contrast the current research framework with that for other infectious diseases. From this analysis, policy lessons with general applicability to scientific research are identified. The Center for Science, Policy, & Outcomes is a project of Columbia University in the City of New York, 1 Thomas Circle NW, Suite 1075, Washington, DC 20005, USA.     

Centrality ratings,forensic relevance,and production frequency: Which one best identifies central and peripheral items?

Production frequency has often been used to identify central and peripheral information, under the assumption that high frequency implies that the item is central. However, no research to date has tested the relationship between centrality and frequency. Participants watched a video of a bank robbery and completed a free recall test, from which frequency for recalled items was computed. Two groups then watched the same video and rated centrality and forensic relevance for each item. Results showed that most, but not all, items with high frequency were rated as central and forensically relevant but that low frequency items were not diagnostic of either item centrality or forensic relevance. Forensic relevance was a better indicator of item centrality than frequency. We concluded that frequency measures should be avoided to determine centrality. Also, if centrality ratings cannot be collected, forensic relevance ratings may be more appropriate for this purpose.     

Moral supervenience

Abstract

It is widely held, even among nonnaturalists, that the moral supervenes on the natural. This is to say that for any two metaphysically possible worlds w and w′, and for any entities x in w and y in w′, any isomorphism between x and y that preserves the natural properties preserves the moral properties. In this paper, I put forward a conceivability argument against moral supervenience, assuming non-naturalism. First, I argue that though utilitarianism may be true, and the trolley driver is permitted to kill the one to save the five, there is a conceivable scenario that is just like our world in all natural respects, yet at which deontology is true, and the trolly driver is not permitted to kill the one to save the five. I then argue that in the special case of morality, it is possible to infer from the conceivability of such a scenario to its possibility. It follows that supervenience is false.     

The Consequences of Collective Discontent: A New Measure of Zeitgeist Predicts Voting for Extreme Parties

In recent years, extreme right‐wing and left‐wing political parties and actors have gained popularity in many Western countries. What motivates people to vote for extreme right‐ or left‐wing parties? In previous research, we showed that a collectively shared sense of doom and gloom about society can exist among citizens who, individually, experience high well‐being. Previous research developed an operationalization of this collective societal discontent as an aspect of Zeitgeist, which can be compared to personal experiences (van der Bles, Postmes, & Meijer, 2015 ). In the present research, we investigated whether this Zeitgeist of societal discontent predicts voting for extreme parties. We conducted a field study during the 2015 Dutch provincial elections (N = 407). Results showed that collective societal discontent (Zeitgeist) predicted voting for extreme parties but that personal discontent did not. Results also showed that pessimistic Zeitgeist was associated with lower education levels and tabloid‐style media consumption. These findings advance our understanding of the discontents that fuel extreme voting outcomes: Global and abstract (negative) beliefs about society are more consequential than concrete personal experiences.     

Multiple processes associated with self-esteem as a function of attribute types

Previous studies (e.g., [Pelham, B. W. (1995). Self-investment and self-esteem: evidence for a Jamesian model of self-worth. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 1141–1150]) showed that self-esteem is positively associated with (1) perceived alignment of self-views with internal standards (Differential Importance: DI) and (2) perceived alignment of self-views with external-social standards (Normative Importance: NI). The present research shows that these processes of self-esteem differ as a function of the types of self-attributes that constitute self-esteem. Specifically, for attributes of high cultural relevance (i.e., indigenous attributes), self-esteem is positively related to DI but not NI; for attributes of lower cultural relevance, self-esteem is positively related to NI but not DI. Self-esteem is positively related to DI for both agentic and communal indigenous attributes, whereas it is also positively related to NI for communal indigenous attributes.     

社会信息加工中的相关性维度

在以往的社会信息加工研究中,多数情况只对刺激作积极、消极的效价区分,这往往导致实验结论中出现困惑和矛盾之处。Peeters提出了另一个区分刺激的维度:相关性(他相关、主相关)。Wentura等人把这一区分引入实验设计后,不但合理解释了以往研究中的问题和疑点,而且获得了新的发现。因此,相关性区分的引入对于此类研究有着重要意义,并对印象形成、刻板印象和群体等其他实验社会心理研究都有一定启发。     

情境相关性及其对“特质-工作结果”的调节作用

情境相关性是指当情境能够对个体表达特质提供相关行为的线索时, 该情境即具有相关性, 它和情境强度共同组成特质激活的潜能, 并在工业组织心理学中逐渐受到广泛关注。基于情境相关性有研究提出情境维度说, 建立特质激活与评估模型。受到情境中相关线索激活, 特质表达为工作行为。在与不同水平各个维度的线索相一致时, 工作行为被评估为工作绩效。研究表明, 情境调节变量可以在3个水平提供特质激活线索, 调节“特质&;#8722;工作结果”关系, 如任务水平的工作控制、群体水平的领导行为以及组织水平的领导&;#8722;成员交换(LMX)关系等。情境相关性研究在人才选任、绩效管理、改善生产等方面起到积极作用。