Outcome effects: The impact of decision process and outcome controllability

An ‘outcome effect’ refers to the phenomenon whereby performance evaluations of decision makers are affected by the outcomes of those decisions. Although some consider such an effect to be a judgmental error, judgment by outcomes may not be dysfunctional when the evaluator does not know how the decision maker chose his or her action. In such situations, outcomes may provide some noisy information about decision quality. We test whether an outcome effect will still occur when the decision methodology and quality are more explicitly identified. Further, we test whether outcome controllability, a previously unexplored moderator variable, will have an impact on the outcome effect. Our first experiment, using undergraduates as subjects, shows that decision quality and controllability have an impact on performance evaluations but that the ubiquitous outcome effect still obtains. These results were replicated with experienced business people, except that controllability only affected their judgments in the case of negative outcomes. Implications of these results are discussed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Central-Eastern European Collective Experiences

The social-psychological phenomena in the post-communist countries of Central-Eastern Europe can be understood only if studied in terms of their pre-communist past. These countries have a complex history. The events relating to dictatorship, democracy and nation are particularly conspicuous. The present study examines the meanings of the terms ‘dictatorship’, ‘democracy’ and ‘nation’ in Hungary, from 1973 until 1995, using the semantic differential. It is argued that the changes in the meanings of these terms can be explained in terms of socio-political changes in Hungary. (© 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)     

Decomposition,Interdependence and Precision in Multiattribute Utility Measurements

Traditionally, parameters of multiattribute utility models, representing a decision maker's preference judgements, are treated deterministically. This may be unrealistic, because assessment of such parameters is potentially fraught with imprecisions and errors. We thus treat such parameters as stochastic and investigate how their associated imprecision/errors are propagated in an additive multiattribute utility function in terms of the aggregate variance. Both a no information and a rank order case regarding the attribute weights are considered, assuming a uniform distribution over the feasible region of attribute weights constrained by the respective information assumption. In general, as the number of attributes increases, the variance of the aggregate utility in both cases decreases and approaches the same limit, which depends only on the variances as well as the correlations among the single-attribute utilities. However, the marginal change in aggregate utility variance decreases rather rapidly and hence decomposition as a variance reduction mechanism is generally useful but becomes relatively ineffective if the number of attributes exceed about 10. Moreover, it was found that utilities which are positively correlated increase the aggregate utility variance, hence every effort should be made to avoid positive correlations between the single-attribute utilities. We also provide guidelines for determining under what condition and to what extent a decision maker should decompose to obtain an aggregate utility variance that is smaller than that of holistic assessments. Extensions of the current model and empirical research to support some of our behavioural assumptions are discussed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Field Experiment Comparing Anchored and Unanchored Criteria Weights in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

This study reports the results of a field experiment comparing the predictive validity of two approaches to multicriteria assessments: the absolute measurement mode of AHP and the absolute measurement mode of linking pin AHP. The questioning procedures of the two differ only in that the former employs unanchored criteria weight assessments and the latter anchored criteria weight assessments. The decision task required insurance agents to respond to a mailed questionnaire in which they evaluated non-monetary incentives (contests) according to (1) the public recognition received from winning, (2) the criteria for winning and (3) the nature of the reward. There were four levels for each dimension. A between subjects design was used, with each subject receiving one of the two methods. In addition, all subjects divided 100 points among four contests and these hold-out assignments were employed as a validity check. Linking pin AHP was found to be superior to conventional AHP in this experiment, lending weight to the argument that the use of unanchored criteria weights is problematic. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Multi-Crit. Decis. Anal. 6 : 140–149 (1997) No. of Figures: 3. No. of Tables: 5. No. of References: 24.     

Bullying as a group process: Participant roles and their relations to social status within the group

Bullying was investigated as a group process, a social phenomenon taking place in a school setting among 573 Finnish sixth-grade children (286 girls, 287 boys) aged 12–13 years. Different Participant Roles taken by individual children in the bullying process were examined and related to a) self-estimated behavior in bullying situations, b) social acceptance and social rejection, and c) belongingness to one of the five sociometric status groups (popular, rejected, neglected, controversial, and average). The Participant Roles assigned to the subject were Victim, Bully, Reinforcer of the bully, Assistant of the bully, Defender of the victim, and Outsider. There were significant sex differences in the distribution of Participant Roles. Boys were more frequently in the roles of Bully, Reinforcer and Assistant, while the most frequent roles of the girls were those of Defender and Outsider. The subjects were moderately well aware of their Participant Roles, although they underestimated their participation in active bullying behavior and emphasized that they acted as Defenders and Outsiders. The sociometric status of the children was found to be connected to their Participant Roles. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Predictors of Symptom Outcome in Interpretation Bias Modification for Dysphoria

Interpretation Bias Modification (IBM) interventions have been effective in reducing negative interpretation biases theorized to underlie depressive psychopathology. Although these programs have been highlighted as potential short-term interventions for depression, mixed evidence has been found for their effects on depressive symptoms. There is a need to examine attitudes towards training as well as individual difference factors that may impact symptom outcomes for IBM depression interventions. Seventy-two dysphoric young adults were randomly assigned to receive either an IBM targeting negative interpretation bias in personal evaluations or interpersonal situations or a healthy video control (HVC) condition. Compared to those who received HVC, participants in the IBM condition reported lower negative interpretation bias at posttreatment. No differences between conditions were found for symptom outcomes. Greater perceived treatment credibility and expectancy were associated with better treatment outcomes for both the IBM and HVC groups. Within the IBM group, a greater tendency toward assimilation with treatment scenarios was significantly associated with better treatment outcomes for both depressive and anger symptoms. This effect was unique from treatment credibility and expectancy. Pretreatment psychological reactance did not predict treatment response for either condition. Implications and future research directions are discussed.     

Nature vs. nurture is nonsense: On the necessity of an integrated genetic,social, developmental,and personality psychology

The field of behavioural genetics unambiguously demonstrates that heritable individual differences exist and are important in explaining human behaviour. Despite this, some psychological perspectives ignore this research. If we wish to comprehensively understand the impact of parenting, the environment, or any social factor, however, we must engage with genetics. In this article, I review research that reveals that genes affect not only our personalities, but the way that we understand and react to the social world. Studies further reveal that notable life events are in part explained by genetic variance. I detail how this could be the case through active, evocative, and passive genetic correlations, and go on to argue that all complex psychological traits are likely the result of multifaceted gene by environment interactions. A mistaken belief that genetic influence implies genetic essentialism, and is therefore tantamount to prejudice, is raised as possible reason why heritability is often ignored in the social sciences. The article concludes with practical suggestions for how we can embrace behavioural genetics as our methods struggle to match the divine complexity of human existence.     

(Emotion-centered) problem-solving therapy: An update

Problem-solving therapy (PST) is a psychosocial intervention, typically considered to be a member of the cognitive and behaviour therapies family, and is based on a biopsychosocial, diathesis-stress model of psychopathology. The overarching goal of this approach is to promote the successful adoption of adaptive problem-solving attitudes and the effective implementation of certain behaviours as a means of coping with life stressors in order to attenuate the negative effects of such events on physical and mental well-being. Over the past several decades, in addition to accumulating strong support for its efficacy as a clinical intervention, similar to many other forms of psychotherapy, PST has undergone various evolutionary changes. Developed primarily as a more cognitive-based approach, due to the large body of literature in the field of affective neuroscience that underscores the importance of the impact of affect on problem solving, PST has evolved into emotion-centered problem-solving therapy (EC-PST). This article provides for a brief excursion into the historical roots of PST and why it has evolved into EC-PST, as well as providing support for its characterisation as a transdiagnostic approach. In addition, several meta-analyses that underscore its efficacy are described, as well as the most recent clinical guidelines that comprise EC-PST.     

Social Anxiety Disorder and Perceived Criticism in Intimate Relationships: Comparisons With Normal and Clinical Control Groups

Individuals with social anxiety disorder (SAD) have difficulties in their romantic relationships, including decreased satisfaction and intimacy, but the reasons for these difficulties are poorly understood. Because fear of negative evaluation is a cardinal feature of SAD, perceived criticism from a romantic partner may play a central role in socially anxious individuals’ relationships. In the present study, we compared levels of perceived, expressed, and observed criticism and reactions to criticism among individuals with SAD and their partners (n = 21), individuals with other anxiety disorders and their partners (n = 35), and couples free of psychopathology (n = 30). Participants rated both global criticism and criticism during a 10-minute problem-solving task, which was also coded for criticism by observers. Individuals with anxiety disorders showed elevated levels of interaction-specific perceived criticism, expressed criticism, and upset and stress due to criticism relative to normal controls; they also reported that the interaction was more stressful. However, there were no group differences on global measures of criticism, and the two anxious groups did not differ on any measures. Findings suggest that the high levels of criticism anxious individuals perceive and their corresponding negative reactions to criticism, though not specific to SAD, may account for some of the relationship difficulties that have been identified in SAD. Results also indicate that anxious individuals may contribute to their relationship difficulties by being highly critical themselves. Overall, our findings point to the need for a clinical focus on decreasing perceived criticism among individuals with anxiety disorders.     

Plagues,Pagans, and Christians: Differential Survival,Social Networks,and the Rise of Christianity

In his book, The Rise of Christianity, Rodney Stark argues that the early Christian church indirectly benefitted from the plagues that struck the early Roman Empire in the 2nd and 3rd centuries of the Common Era. In particular, he argues that the early church's doctrines concerning love, charity, and social service would have led Christians to enjoy higher survival rates than pagans, which would have left the social networks of the former relatively intact, while those of the latter in disarray. Moreover, since recruitment to new religious movements occurs largely through social ties, the probability that an average pagan would have converted to Christianity would have been greater after the plagues than before. In this article, we use computer modeling to test Stark's hypothesis. Not only do we find support for his hypothesis, we also show that higher survival rates for either group not only would have benefitted their respective social networks but also would have benefitted their competitor's social networks, highlighting how network effects often flow in multiple and unexpected ways. We conclude with suggestions for future research, in particular how scholars can build upon our analyses and explore alternative assumptions.