Flexible representations in visual working memory and interactions with long‐term learning: Commentary on the special issue

This special issue of the British Journal of Psychology brings together cutting edge research on a range of topics in visual working memory (VWM). In this commentary, we attempt to summarize common themes in current VWM research exemplified in this issue. The articles include several reviews of important topics as well as empirical papers covering three main themes. The first concerns the nature of mental representations of memoranda in the commonly used delayed estimation task, where both fine‐grained and broad categorical details appear to be represented, and their susceptibility to interference. The second concerns interactions between VWM representations, both those that produce individuation of representations and those that create an overarching ensemble structure. Finally, the third main topic concerns the use of VWM during visual search and in the learning of repeated configurations in search displays. The work presented here, and other work in the field, points to a rich interplay between representations in VWM but also between VWM and information in long‐term memory. Opportunities for further investigation are highlighted throughout.     

The influence of number line estimation precision and numeracy on risky financial decision making

This study examined whether different aspects of mathematical proficiency influence one's ability to make adaptive financial decisions. “Numeracy” refers to the ability to process numerical and probabilistic information and is commonly reported as an important factor which contributes to financial decision‐making ability. The precision of mental number representation (MNR), measured with the number line estimation (NLE) task has been reported to be another critical factor. This study aimed to examine the contribution of these mathematical proficiencies while controlling for the influence of fluid intelligence, math anxiety and personality factors. In our decision‐making task, participants chose between two options offering probabilistic monetary gain or loss. Sensitivity to expected value was measured as an index for the ability to discriminate between optimal versus suboptimal options. Partial correlation and hierarchical regression analyses revealed that NLE precision better explained EV sensitivity compared to numeracy, after controlling for all covariates. These results suggest that individuals with more precise MNR are capable of making more rational financial decisions. We also propose that the measurement of “numeracy,” which is commonly used interchangeably with general mathematical proficiency, should include more diverse aspects of mathematical cognition including basic understanding of number magnitude.     

方差分析效果大小报告的新指标

心理学期刊论文中可重复性不高的现象,原因之一是研究结果的效果普遍较小。并且在报告效果大小的文章中,效果大小指标使用不当。在方差分析中最经常报告的是η2和η2_p,但是在不同的研究设计中,这些效果大小是无法直接进行比较的。广义eta方(η²_G)是近年来新出现的一种新的效果大小指标,可克服的η2和η2_p不足,灵活处理重复测量等多种研究设计下个体差异的计算问题,实现跨研究设计效果大小的可比性。论文结合实例介绍了η²_G的原理和计算方法,并对其优缺点、使用和报告等问题进行了讨论。研究人员在报告效果大小时要考虑到不同的研究设计和研究假设,并选择恰当的指标防止过高估计效果大小。     

多维项目反应理论补偿性模型参数估计:基于广义回归神经网络集合

运用广义回归神经网络(GRNN)方法对小样本多维项目反应理论(MIRT)补偿性模型的项目参数进行估计,尝试解决传统参数估计方法样本数量要求较大的问题。MIRT双参数Logistic补偿模型被设置为二级计分的二维模型。首先,模拟二维能力参数、项目参数值与考生作答矩阵。其次,把通过主成分分析得到的前两个因子在每个题目上的载荷作为区分度的初始值以及题目通过率作为难度的初始值,这两个指标的初始值作为神经网络的输入。集成100个神经网络,其输出值的均值作为MIRT的项目参数估计值。最后,设置2×2种(能力相关水平:0.3和0.7; 两种估计方法:GRNN和MCMC方法)实验处理,对GRNN和MCMC估计方法的返真性进行比较。结果表明,小样本的情况下,基于GRNN集成方法的参数估计结果优于MCMC方法。     

Are situation awareness and decision-making in driving totally conscious processes? Results of a hazard prediction task

Detecting danger in the driving environment is an indispensable task to guarantee safety which depends on the driver’s ability to predict upcoming hazards. But does correct prediction lead to an appropriate response? This study advances hazard perception research by investigating the link between successful prediction and response selection. Three groups of drivers (learners, novices and experienced drivers) were recruited, with novice and experienced drivers further split into offender and non-offender groups. Specifically, this works aims to develop an improved Spanish Hazard Prediction Test and to explore the differences in Situation Awareness, (SA: perception, comprehension and prediction) and Decision-Making (DM) among learners, younger inexperienced and experienced drivers and between driving offenders and non-offenders. The contribution of the current work is not only theoretical; the Hazard Prediction Test is also a valid way to test Hazard Perception. The test, as well as being useful as part of the test for a driving license, could also serve a purpose in the renewal of licenses after a ban or as a way of training drivers. A sample of 121 participants watched a series of driving video clips that ended with a sudden occlusion prior to a hazard. They then answered questions to assess their SA (“What is the hazard?” “Where is it located?” “What happens next?”) and DM (“What would you do in this situation?”). This alternative to the Hazard Perception Test demonstrates a satisfactory internal consistency (Alpha = 0.750), with eleven videos achieving discrimination indices above 0.30. Learners performed significantly worse than experienced drivers when required to identify and locate the hazard. Interestingly, drivers were more accurate in answering the DM question than questions regarding SA, suggesting that drivers can choose an appropriate response manoeuvre without a totally conscious knowledge of the exact hazard.     

Reading and lexicalization in opaque and transparent orthographies: Word naming and word learning in English and Spanish

Do skilled readers of opaque and transparent orthographies make differential use of lexical and sublexical processes when converting words from print to sound? Two experiments are reported, which address that question, using effects of letter length on naming latencies as an index of the involvement of sublexical letter–sound conversion. Adult native speakers of English (Experiment 1) and Spanish (Experiment 2) read aloud four- and seven-letter high-frequency words, low-frequency words, and nonwords in their native language. The stimuli were interleaved and presented 10 times in a first testing session and 10 more times in a second session 28 days later. Effects of lexicality were observed in both languages, indicating the deployment of lexical representations in word naming. Naming latencies to both words and nonwords reduced across repetitions on Day 1, with those savings being retained to Day 28. Length effects were, however, greater for Spanish than English word naming. Reaction times to long and short nonwords converged with repeated presentations in both languages, but less in Spanish than in English. The results support the hypothesis that reading in opaque orthographies favours the rapid creation and use of lexical representations, while reading in transparent orthographies makes more use of a combination of lexical and sublexical processing.     

Estimating group size from human speech: Three's a conversation,but four's a crowd

Much previous research has examined various aspects of auditory processing, including the localization of sounds, and the influence of lexical and indexical information on language processing. In the present set of experiments we explored the ability of listeners to estimate the number of speakers in a group solely from the information in an auditory signal. The bound on accurately estimating the number of simultaneous speakers is 3. We suggest that subitization—the ability to estimate numerosity of visual and auditory elements without explicitly counting these elements—rather than the capacity of short-term memory, may underlie this limitation. The cognitive constraint on estimating the number of simultaneous speakers may have implications for a wide variety of seemingly unrelated psychological phenomena.     

Addressing the “Replication Crisis”: Using Original Studies to Design Replication Studies with Appropriate Statistical Power

Psychology is undergoing a replication crisis. The discussion surrounding this crisis has centered on mistrust of previous findings. Researchers planning replication studies often use the original study sample effect size as the basis for sample size planning. However, this strategy ignores uncertainty and publication bias in estimated effect sizes, resulting in overly optimistic calculations. A psychologist who intends to obtain power of .80 in the replication study, and performs calculations accordingly, may have an actual power lower than .80. We performed simulations to reveal the magnitude of the difference between actual and intended power based on common sample size planning strategies and assessed the performance of methods that aim to correct for effect size uncertainty and/or bias. Our results imply that even if original studies reflect actual phenomena and were conducted in the absence of questionable research practices, popular approaches to designing replication studies may result in a low success rate, especially if the original study is underpowered. Methods correcting for bias and/or uncertainty generally had higher actual power, but were not a panacea for an underpowered original study. Thus, it becomes imperative that 1) original studies are adequately powered and 2) replication studies are designed with methods that are more likely to yield the intended level of power.     

A Hierarchical Rater Model for Longitudinal Data

Research studies in psychology and education often seek to detect changes or growth in an outcome over a duration of time. This research provides a solution to those interested in estimating latent traits from psychological measures that rely on human raters. Rater effects potentially degrade the quality of scores in constructed response and performance assessments. We develop an extension of the hierarchical rater model (HRM), which yields estimates of latent traits that have been corrected for individual rater bias and variability, for ratings that come from longitudinal designs. The parameterization, called the longitudinal HRM (L-HRM), includes an autoregressive time series process to permit serial dependence between latent traits at adjacent timepoints, as well as a parameter for overall growth. We evaluate and demonstrate the feasibility and performance of the L-HRM using simulation studies. Parameter recovery results reveal predictable amounts and patterns of bias and error for most parameters across conditions. An application to ratings from a study of character strength demonstrates the model. We discuss limitations and future research directions to improve the L-HRM.     

Dealing with Big Numbers: Representation and Understanding of Magnitudes Outside of Human Experience

Being able to estimate quantity is important in everyday life and for success in the STEM disciplines. However, people have difficulty reasoning about magnitudes outside of human perception (e.g., nanoseconds, geologic time). This study examines patterns of estimation errors across temporal and spatial magnitudes at large scales. We evaluated the effectiveness of hierarchical alignment in improving estimations, and transfer across dimensions. The activity was successful in increasing accuracy for temporal and spatial magnitudes, and learning transferred to the estimation of numeric magnitudes associated with events and objects. However, there were also a number of informative differences in performance on temporal, spatial, and numeric magnitude measures, suggesting that participants possess different categorical information for these scales. Educational implications are discussed.