基于作答时间数据的改变点分析在检测加速作答中的探索——已知和未知项目参数

相对于传统的离散作答数据, 作答时间作为连续数据, 可以提供更多信息。改变点分析(change point analysis)技术在心理和教育领域是一个比较新的技术。本文一方面对改变点分析在心理测量领域的应用进行了一个综合的总结和分析; 另一方面, 将基于作答数据的两种改变点分析统计量推广到作答时间数据, 将改变点分析技术应用到测验异常作答模式：加速作答speededness的检测上。采用两种检验方法：似然比检验和Wald检验, 分别在已知和未知项目参数的条件下, 实现异常作答模式的检测。结果表明, 所采用的方法对于加速作答行为的检测具有很高的检验力, 同时能够很好的控制I类错误率。实证数据分析进一步表明本文中所使用的方法具有应用价值。     

新世纪20年国内假设检验及其关联问题的方法学研究

新世纪20年来国内假设检验方法学研究内容可分为如下几类: 零假设显著性检验的不足、p值的使用问题、心理学研究的可重复性问题、效应量、检验力、等效性检验、其他与假设检验关联的研究。零假设显著性检验已经发展成一套组合流程: 为了保证检验力和节省成本, 实验研究需要做先验检验力分析预估样本容量, 但问卷超过160人在传统统计中就没有必要这样做。当拒绝零假设时, 应当结合效应量做出结论。当不拒绝零假设时, 需要报告后验检验力; 如果效应量中或大而检验力不够高, 则可增加被试再行分析, 但这一过程应主动披露, 报告最后的实际p值并对可能犯的第一类错误率做出评估。     

居危思变?工作不安全感对创新行为的差异化影响?

企业往往在员工管理和组织创新上处于“两难困境”——难以提供稳定工作但又不得不依赖员工实现组织创新, 这就使得研究员工工作不安全感对创新行为的影响至关重要。企业员工遭遇不同环境威胁带来的工作不安全感时, 创新行为存在差异。本文在威胁焦点下深化工作不安全感概念, 并基于“以变量为中心”和“以人为中心”的研究思路, 探讨其对创新行为的差异化影响过程。首先, 结合环境威胁来源与主观感知, 把工作不安全感分为岗位焦点工作不安全感和人员焦点工作不安全感两个维度, 并将编制测量量表。其次, 期望运用纵向研究设计, 通过分析多时点的员工-主管配对数据, 基于情境调节焦点和工作激情的链式中介作用, 来揭示岗位焦点工作不安全感对创新行为的负向影响, 以及人员焦点工作不安全感对创新行为的倒U型影响。最后, 将采取“以人为中心”的研究思路, 运用潜在剖面分析方法探讨工作不安全感潜在类型及其对创新行为的影响。研究结果将有助于推进工作不安全感的概念和效用研究, 也为企业如何有效促进创新提供对策建议。     

If I imagine it,then it happened: The Implicit Truth Value of imaginary representations

Imagination sometimes leads people to behave, feel, and think as though imagined events were real even when they know they were not. In this paper, we suggest that some understanding of these phenomena can be achieved by differentiating between Implicit Truth Value (ITV), a spontaneous truth evaluation, and Explicit Truth Value (ETV), a self-reported truth judgment. In three experiments, we measure ITV using the autobiographical Implicit Association Test (Sartori, Agosta, Zogmaister, Ferrara, & Castiello, 2008), which has been used to assess which of two autobiographical events is true. Our findings demonstrate that imagining an event, like experiencing an event, increases its ITV, even when people explicitly acknowledge the imagined event as false (Experiments 1a and 1b). Furthermore, we show that imagined representations generated from a first-person perspective have higher ITV than imagined representations generated from a third-person perspective (Experiment 2). Our findings suggest that implicit and explicit measures of truth differ in their sensitivity to properties underlying truth judgment. We discuss the contribution of characterizing events according to both ITV and ETV to the understanding of various psychological phenomena, such as lying and self-deception.     

For the greater goods? Ownership rights and utilitarian moral judgment

People often judge it unacceptable to directly harm a person, even when this is necessary to produce an overall positive outcome, such as saving five other lives. We demonstrate that similar judgments arise when people consider damage to owned objects. In two experiments, participants considered dilemmas where saving five inanimate objects required destroying one. Participants judged this unacceptable when it required violating another’s ownership rights, but not otherwise. They also judged that sacrificing another’s object was less acceptable as a means than as a side-effect; judgments did not depend on whether property damage involved personal force. These findings inform theories of moral decision-making. They show that utilitarian judgment can be decreased without physical harm to persons, and without personal force. The findings also show that the distinction between means and side-effects influences the acceptability of damaging objects, and that ownership impacts utilitarian moral judgment.     

Transfer effects between moral dilemmas: A causal model theory

Evaluations of analogous situations are an important source for our moral intuitions. A puzzling recent set of findings in experiments exploring transfer effects between intuitions about moral dilemmas has demonstrated a striking asymmetry. Transfer often occurred with a specific ordering of moral dilemmas, but not when the sequence was reversed. In this article we present a new theory of transfer between moral intuitions that focuses on two components of moral dilemmas, namely their causal structure and their default evaluations. According to this theory, transfer effects are expected when the causal models underlying the considered dilemmas allow for a mapping of the highlighted aspect of the first scenario onto the causal structure of the second dilemma, and when the default evaluations of the two dilemmas substantially differ. The theory’s key predictions for the occurrence and the direction of transfer effects between two moral dilemmas are tested in five experiments with various variants of moral dilemmas from different domains. A sixth experiment tests the predictions of the theory for how the target action in the moral dilemmas is represented.     

The Secrecy Heuristic: Inferring Quality from Secrecy in Foreign Policy Contexts

Three experiments demonstrate that in the context of U.S. foreign policy decision making, people infer informational quality from secrecy. In Experiment 1, people weighed secret information more heavily than public information when making recommendations about foreign political candidates. In Experiment 2, people judged information presented in documents ostensibly produced by the Department of State and the National Security Council as being of relatively higher quality when those documents were secret rather than public. Finally, in Experiment 3, people judged a National Security Council document as being of higher quality when presented as a secret document rather than a public document and evaluated others' decisions more favorably when those decisions were based on secret information. Discussion centers on the mediators, moderators, and broader implications of this secrecy heuristic in foreign policy contexts.     

The vision heuristic: Judging music ensembles by sight alone

Team effectiveness and group performance are often defined by standards set by domain experts. Professional musicians consistently report that sound output is the most important standard for evaluating the quality of group performance in the domain of music. However, across six studies, visual information dominated rapid judgments of group performance. Participants (1062 experts and novices) were able to select the actual winners of live ensemble competitions and distinguish top-ranked orchestras from non-ranked orchestras based on 6-s silent video recordings yet were unable to do so from sound recordings or recordings with both video and sound. These findings suggest that judgments of group performance in the domain of music are driven at least in part by visual cues about group dynamics and leadership.