四卡问题的内容促进效应的实验研究

本研究设计了２种抽象材料和４种具体材料的四卡问题,对４３６名大学生进行测试,以考察被试解决四卡问题时所采用的思维方式并检验命题内容对推理的影响。结果表明,四卡问题十分困难,具体内容的四卡问题并不能产生促进效应,大学生的推理表现出“匹配偏向”的特点。     

EVOLUTION IN THERMODYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE: A HISTORICAL AND PHILOSOPHICAL ANGLE

Abstract. The recently suggested reformulation of Darwinian evolutionary theory, based on the thermodynamics of self-organizing processes, has strong philosophical implications. My claim is that the main philosophical merit of the thermodynamic approach, made especially clear in J.S. Wicken's work, is its insistence on the law-governed, continuous nature of evolution. I attempt to substantiate this claim following a historical analysis of beginning-of-the-century ideas on evolution and matter-life relationship, in particular, the fitness-of-the-environment-for-life theory of the Harvard physiologist L.J. Henderson. In addition, I point to an epistemological common ground underlying the studies of the “thermodynamics school” and other currently active research groups focusing on the emergence and evolution of biological organization.     

A general linear model for estimating effect size in the presence of publication bias

When the process of publication favors studies with smallp-values, and hence large effect estimates, combined estimates from many studies may be biased. This paper describes a model for estimation of effect size when there is selection based on one-tailedp-values. The model employs the method of maximum likelihood in the context of a mixed (fixed and random) effects general linear model for effect sizes. It offers a test for the presence of publication bias, and corrected estimates of the parameters of the linear model for effect magnitude. The model is illustrated using a well-known data set on the benefits of psychotherapy.Authors' note: The contributions of the authors are considered equal, and the order of authorship was chosen to be reverse-alphabetical.     

Identification of inconsistent variates in factor analysis

When some of observed variates do not conform to the model under consideration, they will have a serious effect on the results of statistical analysis. In factor analysis the model with inconsistent variates may result in improper solutions. In this article a useful method for identifying a variate as inconsistent is proposed in factor analysis. The procedure is based on the likelihood principle. Several statistical properties such as the effect of misspecified hypotheses, the problem of multiple comparisons, and robustness to violation of distributional assumptions are investigated. The procedure is illustrated by some examples.     

A compensatory approach to optimal selection with mastery scores

A Bayesian approach for simultaneous optimization of test-based decisions is presented using the example of a selection decision for a treatment followed by a mastery decision. A distinction is made between weak and strong rules where, as opposed to strong rules, weak rules use prior test scores as collateral data. Conditions for monotonicity of optimal weak and strong rules are presented. It is shown that under mild conditions on the test score distributions and utility functions, weak rules are always compensatory by nature. The authors are indebted to Wilbert Kallenberg for his valuable comments and to Jan Gulmans for providing the data for the empirical example. The names of the authors are alphabetical; they are equally responsible for the contents of this paper.     

Consider the source: One step in assessing premise acceptability

Premise acceptability is conceptually connected to presumption. To say that a premise is acceptable just when there is a presumption in its favor is to give a first approximation to this connection. A number of popular principles of presumption suggest that whether there is a presumption for a premise, belief, or claim depends on the sources which vouch for it. Sources consist of internal belief-generating mechanisms and external testimony. Alvin Plantinga's notion of warrant lays down four conditions upon a source for the belief which it generates to be warranted. We argue that there is a presumption for a premise, belief, or claim if and only if there is a presumption of warrant for that premise,belief or claim. This amounts to the thesis that there is a presumption for a belief from a challenger's point of view if and only if there is a presumption from that person's point of view that her cognitive faculties which have generated the belief have been functioning properly, in an appropriate cognitive environment, in accord with a segment of her design plan aimed at the truth, and that these faculties are reliable. In light of our argument for this thesis, we may legitimately claim that one way to determine that there is a presumption for a belief is to determine that there is a presumption of warrant for that belief, and thus that in determining whether there is a presumption for a belief or premise, we may consider the source.     

Should a criminal receive a heart transplant? Medical Justice vs. Societal Justice

Should the nation provide expensive care and scarce organs to convicted felons? We distinguish between two fields of justice: Medical Justice and Societal Justice. Although there is general acceptance within the medical profession that physicians may distribute limited treatments based solely on potential medical benefits without regard to nonmedical factors, that does not mean that society cannot impose limits based on societal factors. If a society considers the convicted felon to be a full member, then that person would be entitled to at least a “decent minimum” level of care — which might include access to scarce life-saving organs. However, if criminals forfeit their entitlement to the same level of medical care afforded to all members of society, they still would be entitled to a kind of “rudimentary decent minimum” granted to all persons on simple humanitarian grounds. Almost certainly this entitlement would not include access to organ transplants.     

The linear utility model for optimal selection

A linear utility model is introduced for optimal selection when several subpopulations of applicants are to be distinguished. Using this model, procedures are described for obtaining optimal cutting scores in subpopulations in quota-free as well as quota-restricted selection situations. The cutting scores are optimal in the sense that they maximize the overall expected utility of the selection process. The procedures are demonstrated with empirical data.     

Adaptation to context

Argument theorists often stress the idea of adaptation to context as an alternative to seeing argument as linked propositions. But adaptation is not a clear idea. It is in fact a complicated puzzle. Though many aspects of this puzzle are obscure, one clear conclusion is that the question-answer pair is not a good way to conceptualize adaptation to situation.     

THE FUNCTIONS OF ASSESSMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR SELECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF DEVICES FOR ASSESSING REPERTOIRES IN CLINICAL,EDUCATIONAL, AND OTHER SETTINGS

An attempt is made to identify the many different functions that assessment of an individual's repertoire can serve. Implications of these functions for the character of and evidence about assessment devices are suggested. The functions fall into two general groups, those which influence decisions regarding an individual learner, and those which influence policy, program development, and scientific knowledge. The first group of functions is presented in a rough chronological sequence such that they form a “behavioral assessment funnel,” beginning with functions involving broad-band assessment to identify likely persons and skill areas, and narrowing to the precise pinpointing, monitoring, and follow-up functions. The contribution of behavior analysis and behavior therapy to assessment methodology in this sequence is identified as well as the areas where more traditionally conceived methods are still useful. The second group of functions and behavioral contributions to it are then discussed.