Imprecise Epistemic Values and Imprecise Credences

A number of recent arguments purport to show that imprecise credences are incompatible with accuracy-first epistemology. If correct, this conclusion suggests a conflict between evidential and alethic epistemic norms. In the first part of the paper, I claim that these arguments fail if we understand imprecise credences as indeterminate credences. In the second part, I explore why agents with entirely alethic epistemic values can end up in an indeterminate credal state. Following William James, I argue that there are many distinct alethic values that a rational agent can have. Furthermore, such an agent is rationally permitted not to have settled on one fully precise value function. This indeterminacy in value will sometimes result in indeterminacy in epistemic behaviour—that is, because the agent’s values aren’t settled, what she believes might not be.     

人格判断的准确性:特质特性的作用

特质特性是影响人格判断准确性的重要调节变量。已有的研究表明,可观察性高的特质容易判断,判断的准确性和一致性也更高;特质的可评估性干扰了自我知觉的准确性,与中性特质相比,可评估性特质的自我—他人一致性更低;与清晰特质相比,模糊特质的自我—同伴判断间的一致性更低,且随特质模糊性的增加而递减。不仅如此,特质特性经常与其他因素如熟悉度交互作用于人格判断的准确性,在考查特质特性的作用时,必须提高研究的生态效度,将该变量与特性匹配、特质分类、个体差异及文化差异等因素综合起来考虑。     

具有类属知识性的思维:群体区别判断过程中的复杂性、有效性、有用性和实质性

类属性思维(stereotypes)在一定的程度上是对群体区别正确反映的类属信仰.类属性思维比我们一般假想的更为复杂.首先,我们在本论文中探讨了在立体性的类属性思维EPA理论框架之下的多维度,即类属性思维的三维度:评估、激活和准确度.同时还特别讨论了类属性思维与具体集体共识的表征特点的图腾信仰之间的密切关系.其次,对于作为人类信仰一部分的类属性思维准确性莫衷一是的研究,我们进行了全面综述,并且本文还仔细考查文化类属性思维,个体类属性思维,个体与群体的判断,准确性评判的标准,和原分析的数据等等,同时进一步表明类属性思维和客观现实性有密不可分的关系.最后,我们指出类属性思维对解释群体和民族的区别非常重要,特别是人的感知的实质性寓于实在的客观群体本身(“感知的同一性”).我们认为,类属性思维的过程,对于高度的实体性和感知的实质性的群体来说,具有深刻影响,况且群体或部落(民族)的图腾也是其群体或民族的实体性的外在表现.尽管我们不可能解决同类属性思维的过程有关的所有争论,但我们所强调的观点是:类属性思维是人类相互影响和生存的有效类属性识别.     

Effects of anxiety on handgun shooting behavior of police officers: a pilot study

Abstract

The current pilot study aimed at providing an initial assessment of how anxiety influences police officers’ shooting behavior. Seven police officers participated and completed an identical shooting exercise under two experimental conditions: low anxiety, against a non-threatening opponent, and high anxiety (HA), against a threatening opponent who occasionally shot back using colored soap cartridges. Measurements included shooting accuracy, movement times, head/body orientation, and blink behavior. Results showed that under HA, shooting accuracy decreased. Underlying this degradation of performance, participants acted faster and made themselves smaller to reduce the chance of being hit. Furthermore, they blinked more often, leading to increases in the amount of time participants had their eyes closed. Findings provide support for attentional control theory, hereby also pointing to possible interventions to improve police officers’ shooting performance under pressure.     

Consensus collaboration enhances group and individual recall accuracy

We often remember in groups, yet research on collaborative recall finds “collaborative inhibition”: Recalling with others has costs compared to recalling alone. In related paradigms, remembering with others introduces errors into recall. We compared costs and benefits of two collaboration procedures—turn taking and consensus. First, 135 individuals learned a word list and recalled it alone (Recall 1). Then, 45 participants in three-member groups took turns to recall, 45 participants in three-member groups reached a consensus, and 45 participants recalled alone but were analysed as three-member nominal groups (Recall 2). Finally, all participants recalled alone (Recall 3). Both turn-taking and consensus groups demonstrated the usual pattern of costs during collaboration and benefits after collaboration in terms of recall completeness. However, consensus groups, and not turn-taking groups, demonstrated clear benefits in terms of recall accuracy, both during and after collaboration. Consensus groups engaged in beneficial group source-monitoring processes. Our findings challenge assumptions about the negative consequences of social remembering.     

Estimation of the Coefficient of Variation with Minimum Risk: A Sequential Method for Minimizing Sampling Error and Study Cost

The coefficient of variation is an effect size measure with many potential uses in psychology and related disciplines. We propose a general theory for a sequential estimation of the population coefficient of variation that considers both the sampling error and the study cost, importantly without specific distributional assumptions. Fixed sample size planning methods, commonly used in psychology and related fields, cannot simultaneously minimize both the sampling error and the study cost. The sequential procedure we develop is the first sequential sampling procedure developed for estimating the coefficient of variation. We first present a method of planning a pilot sample size after the research goals are specified by the researcher. Then, after collecting a sample size as large as the estimated pilot sample size, a check is performed to assess whether the conditions necessary to stop the data collection have been satisfied. If not an additional observation is collected and the check is performed again. This process continues, sequentially, until a stopping rule involving a risk function is satisfied. Our method ensures that the sampling error and the study costs are considered simultaneously so that the cost is not higher than necessary for the tolerable sampling error. We also demonstrate a variety of properties of the distribution of the final sample size for five different distributions under a variety of conditions with a Monte Carlo simulation study. In addition, we provide freely available functions via the MBESS package in R to implement the methods discussed.     

Explanation,updating, and accuracy

There is evidence that people update their credences partly on the basis of explanatory considerations. Philosophers have recently argued that to minimise the inaccuracy of their credences, people's updates also ought to be partly based on such considerations. However, there are many ways in which explanatory considerations can factor into updating, not all of which minimise inaccuracy. It is an open question whether in their updating, people take explanatory considerations into account in a way that philosophers would deem recommendable. To address this question, we re-analyse data from an experiment reported in Douven and Schupbach, “The role of explanatory considerations in updating” (Cognition, 2015).     

The effects of different mastery criteria on the skill maintenance of children with developmental disabilities

The acquisition of skills by individuals with developmental disabilities typically includes the attainment of a certain mastery criterion. We conducted a survey of practitioners who indicated the most commonly used mastery criterion as 80% accuracy across three consecutive sessions. Based on these results, we conducted a series of three experiments to evaluate the relation between mastery criterion and subsequent skill maintenance with 4 individuals with various developmental disabilities. Results suggest that 80% accuracy across three consecutive sessions may be insufficient for producing maintenance in some cases.     

面孔吸引力和信息正确性对幼儿选择性信任的影响

实验1采用3×2×2 的混合设计, 考察4~6岁幼儿获取全新信息时基于面孔吸引力的选择性信任及其特点。结果显示：(1) 4~6岁的男孩和女孩均表现出对高面孔吸引力者的选择性信任。(2)在选择性信任程度方面：5岁比4岁高, 而4岁和6岁之间、5岁和6岁之间则相同; 女孩在询问任务中比男孩表现出更高的选择性信任, 在赞同任务中则相同。那么, 幼儿的这种选择性信任是否受到信息正确性的调节?为此, 实验2采用2×3的被试间设计, 探讨信息提供者提供信息的正确性对4~6岁幼儿基于面孔吸引力的选择性信任的影响。结果显示：在正确性为50% vs. 50%条件下, 幼儿未对信息提供者产生选择性信任; 在正确性为25% vs. 75%条件下, 幼儿对提供较大正确性信息的低面孔吸引力者产生了选择性信任。研究结果表明：(1)在信息缺乏时, 4~6岁幼儿普遍存在有偏见的选择性信任; 女孩比男孩更易受到社会偏见因素的影响。(2)在信息明确时, 4~6岁幼儿也能做出相对理性的选择性信任。