Upward versus Downward Anchoring in Frequency Judgments of Social Facts

Frequency estimation of social facts in two methods of judgment elicitation was investigated. In the “narrow-range” condition, subjects answered questions in the format: “Out of 100 incidents, how many belong to category X?” In the “wide-range” condition, the frequency for the same event was assessed with respect to “Out of 10,000”. Judged frequencies in the wide-range condition were divided by 100, and were compared with the corresponding judgments in the narrow-range condition. Such comparisons were made for low-frequency and high-frequency events. Previous research has shown that, for low-frequency events, judged frequencies are proportionally greater in the narrow-range than in the wide-range condition. These results reflect cognitive processes of implicit anchoring, whereby judged frequencies lie close to small numbers within the response ranges provided. I call this process “downward anchoring,” and predicted that this tendency would be replicated in the present study. Moreover, I predicted that assessments about high-frequency events would evoke similar cognitive processes operating in the opposite direction. By such “upward anchoring,” judged frequencies would lie close to relatively larger numbers within the given response ranges. Consequently, I predicted that judged frequencies for high-frequency events would be proportionally greater in the wide-range condition than in the narrow-range condition. These predictions were confirmed.     

'The Rich Squander Money by the Thousands'

Following the publication of an unknown letter of Jung's on the theme of the possibility of liberal dictatorship, the authors have presented the actual letter that prompted Jung's reply and a further letter from the 16–year-old boy in Kansas. An interview with Jung in Hearst's International Cosmopolitan Magazine conducted by H.R. Knickerbocker in 1938 initially prompted the boy to write to Jung and the interview, which has been published, is summarized. Economic and financial themes were prominent in the boy's mind and links are made to earlier discussions in this Journal about these matters.     

Reflections on segregating and assessing areas of competence

Various complexities that arise in the application of legal and/or clinical criteria to the actual assessment of competence/capacity are discussed, and a particular way of understanding the nature of such criteria is recommended.     

Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: A single model for both

In a recent issue of this journal, Winman and Juslin (34 , 135–148, 1993) present a model of the calibration of subjective probability judgments for sensory discrimination tasks. They claim that the model predicts a pervasive underconfidence bias observed in such tasks, and present evidence from a training experiment that they interpret as supporting the notion that different models are needed to describe judgment of confidence in sensory and in cognitive tasks. The model is actually part of the more comprehensive decision variable partition model of subjective probability calibration that was originally proposed in Ferrell and McGoey (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26 , 32–53, 1980). The characteristics of the model are described and it is demonstrated that the model does not predict underconfidence, that it is fully compatible with the overconfidence frequently found in calibration studies with cognitive tasks, and that it well represents experimental results from such studies. It is concluded that only a single model is needed for both types of task.     

Taking an individualized approach to the assessment of self-efficacy and the prediction of alcoholic relapse

The present study reports on a clinical instrument designed for assessing self-efficacy in alcoholics. In contrast to studies that construct general measures, it was proposed that taking an individualized approach to assessment might offer an effective methodology. Thirty-four alcoholics in an outpatient, behaviorally oriented treatment program participated as subjects. During therapy, an Individualized Self-Efficacy Survey (ISS) was developed for each subject. The ISS was developed by (a) administering the Drinking Patterns Questionnaire (DPQ) to identify important problem areas (e.g., work, children, marital) and specific drinking antecedents and (b) constructing a 15-item scale using each drinker's most important cues. The utility of having clients choose their own items was supported by finding a significant relationship between problem areas identified as important on the DPQ and the areas reported as surrounding relapse. ISS ratings were reflective of efficacy changes during treatment, while posttreatment ISS scores were predictive of subsequent relapse. Situation-specific prediction of relapse was not found. The advantages of this methodology for clinical use are discussed, while general directions for future research are suggested.     

Families and family therapy in Germany

The author describes some of the effects of decades of life under a dictatorship for East Germans and the effects on family life and family therapy of changes following the recent reunification of Germany. A case example illustrates some intergenerational family problems associated with the changes. Contrasts are drawn between East and West Germany and family therapy's present stage of development is depicted in both parts of the reunified country. Germany has approximately 10,000 trained family therapists, a minority of whom work in private practice. The largest amount of family and couples therapy is performed in agencies.Portions of this material were first presented in a poster session at the American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy annual conference in Miami Beach, 1992.