Evaluating Multiple-Attribute Decision Support Systems

Differences in the perceived usefulness of five multiple-attribute decision support systems versus a basic spreadsheet are empirically assessed. Twenty-four college faculty members participated in a repeated measures experiment in which they used decision support software for personal computers to analyse semistructured multiple-attribute problems. The software packages employed were Criterium, Expert Choice, Logical Decision, VIMDA, VISA and the spreadsheet package Quattro Pro. A questionnaire was developed to assess user-friendliness of the software, confidence in the procedure implemented by the software, and users’ confidence in their results when employing the decision aids. Time to reach a decision was also measured. Significant differences were fund in the overall way users ranked these aids, in the perceived user-friendliness and the confidence in procedure among aids, and in the time it took to arrive at a result. Comments from users are also reported. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

事故多发驾驶员与安全驾驶员反应时的比较研究

本文对18名事故多发卡车驾驶员和18名安全卡车驾驶员的视觉、听觉简单反应时、选择反应时以及决策时间进行了比较研究.结果表明事故多发组卡车驾驶员的视觉、听觉简单反应时比安全组卡车驾驶员长,但差异不显著;事故多发组卡车驾驶员的视觉、听觉选择反应时与决策时间都比安全组卡车驾驶员长,且差异显著.本研究结果为我国深入开展驾驶员的选拔、培训与驾驶适应性检测提供理论依据与技术支持.     

Conditional Direction Dependence Analysis: Evaluating the Causal Direction of Effects in Linear Models with Interaction Terms

Abstract

Direction dependence analysis (DDA) makes use of higher than second moment information of variables (x and y) to detect potential confounding and to probe the causal direction of linear variable relations (i.e., whether x?→?y or y?→?x better approximates the underlying causal mechanism). The “true” predictor is assumed to be a continuous nonnormal exogenous variable. Existing methods compatible with DDA, however, are of limited use when the relation of a focal predictor and an outcome is affected by a moderator. This study presents a conditional direction dependence analysis (CDDA) framework which enables researchers to evaluate the causal direction of conditional regression effects. Monte–Carlo simulations were used to evaluate two different moderation scenarios: Study 1 evaluates the performance of CDDA tests when a moderator affects the strength of the causal effect x?→?y. Study 2 evaluates cases in which the causal direction itself (x?→?y vs y?→?x) depends on moderator values. Study 3 evaluates the robustness of DDA tests in the presence of functional model misspecifications. Results suggest that significance tests compatible with CDDA are suitable in both moderation scenarios, i.e., CDDA allows one to discern regions of a moderator in which the causal direction is uniquely identifiable. An empirical example is provided to illustrate the approach.     

识字量和词汇知识在儿童阅读发展中的相对重要性

本研究基于简单阅读观理论,以两个样本共计666名大班至四年级的汉语儿童为研究对象,探索了识字量和词汇知识在儿童阅读能力发展中的作用及相对重要性的变化。结果显示,在阅读学习早期,识字量对阅读理解的重要性高于词汇知识。随着年级的升高,识字量的重要性降低,而词汇知识的重要性增加。这一发现证实简单阅读观理论也适用于解释汉语阅读能力的发展,并对今后的语文教学具有重要的启示意义。     

Margarita Von Lüttichau: Intermediary between Jung and Bill Wilson

This paper details Von Lüttichau’s relationship with Carl Jung and Bill Wilson, co-founder of Alcoholics Anonymous (AA), and her role as intermediary in the relationship between the two men. Her contribution within this mediator role has not been previously recognized but is an important factor in explaining how Jung became introduced to the AA 12-step format and validated the effectiveness of group work. After the Second World War, Von Lüttichau travelled between America and Switzerland and introduced the writings and ideas of Wilson and Jung to each other and acted as an intermediary between both titans. Jung gave Von Lüttichau extraordinarily detailed instructions on how the 12-step programme of AA could be applied to ‘general neurotics’. Von Lüttichau’s private papers provide a bridge between Jung and Wilson’s correspondence and help to piece together gaps in both Jungian and AA history.     

Medical Decision-Making: An Argument for Narrative and Metaphor

This study examines the processes ofdecision-making used by intensive care(critical care) specialists. Ninety-ninespecialists completed a questionnaire involvingthree clinical cases, using a novel methodologyinvestigating the role of uncertainty andtemporal-related factors, and exploring a rangeof ethical issues. Validation and triangulationof the results was done via a comparison studywith a medically lay, but highly informed groupof 37 law students. For both study groups,constructing reasons for a decision was largelyan interpretative and imaginative exercise thatwent beyond the data (as presented), commonlyresulting in different reasons supporting thesame conclusions and similar reasons supportingopposite conclusions. The skills of ethicalimagination and interpretation were related toan individual's prior lived experience,construed in the broadest sense. Application ofthese skills of ethical imagination andinterpretation always occurred, to some degree,in a state of uncertainty and almost alwaysinvolved temporal relationships.Using these results, a theory of ethicaldecision-making is proffered. Three levels ortypes of reasoning processes may be present.Type I decision-making involves the applicationof rules, usually in a deductive fashion. TypeII decision-making is characterised by aprocess where a plurality of reasons arebalanced, weighed and sifted with each other.Type III decision-making is intimately linkedwith respondents lived experiences and `crafts'the content of type I and II reasoningprocesses, via the application of ethicalimagination and interpretation. Relationshipsbetween these three types of reasoningprocesses, and with narrative ethics, are alsodiscussed.     

MCMC estimation and some model-fit analysis of multidimensional IRT models

A Bayesian procedure to estimate the three-parameter normal ogive model and a generalization of the procedure to a model with multidimensional ability parameters are presented. The procedure is a generalization of a procedure by Albert (1992) for estimating the two-parameter normal ogive model. The procedure supports analyzing data from multiple populations and incomplete designs. It is shown that restrictions can be imposed on the factor matrix for testing specific hypotheses about the ability structure. The technique is illustrated using simulated and real data. The authors would like to thank Norman Verhelst for his valuable comments and ACT, CITO group and SweSAT for the use of their data.     

Naturalism Need Not Be "Made Safe": A Response to William Rottschaefer's Misunderstandings

In this article, I respond to William Rottschaefer's analysis of my writings on religion and science, especially my Religion, Science and Naturalism (1996). I show that I am not trying "to make naturalism safe," as Rottschaefer contends, but rather attempting to explore options available when one endorses naturalistic approaches. I also explain why I object to the label "supernaturalistic naturalism" used by Rottschaefer. Possible limitations to naturalistic projects are discussed, not as limitations imposed but rather as features uncovered.