Trust Development: Testing a New Model in Undergraduate Roommate Relationships

Interpersonal trust is a vital component of social relationships. In this study the roles of parental attachment, perceived similarity of trustee to self, and social exchange processes in trust development were investigated longitudinally with randomly assigned, same-sex undergraduate roommates during emerging adulthood. A total of 214 first-year students completed weekly self-report measures during the first 5 weeks of the fall semester. Perceived similarity measured the second week and social exchange with roommates across the 5 weeks predicted participants’ trust in their roommate, with social exchange mediating the relation between perceived similarity and trust. Results highlight interrelations of social exchange and trust in established relationships.     

True Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: Evidence Based on a New Measure of Miscalibration

Overconfidence is often regarded as one of the most prevalent judgment biases. Several studies show that overconfidence can lead to suboptimal decisions of investors, managers, or politicians. Recent research, however, questions whether overconfidence should be regarded as a bias and shows that standard “overconfidence” findings can easily be explained by different degrees of knowledge of agents plus a random error in predictions. We contribute to the current literature and ongoing research by extensively analyzing interval estimates for knowledge questions, for real financial time series, and for artificially generated charts. We thereby suggest a new method to measure overconfidence in interval estimates, which is based on the implied probability mass behind a stated prediction interval. We document overconfidence patterns, which are difficult to reconcile with rationality of agents and which cannot be explained by differences in knowledge as differences in knowledge do not exist in our task. Furthermore, we show that overconfidence measures are reliable in the sense that there exist stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence in interval estimates, thereby testing an important assumption of behavioral economics and behavioral finance models: stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence across people. We do this in a “field experiment,” for different levels of expertise of subjects (students on the one hand and professional traders and investment bankers on the other hand), over time, by using different miscalibration metrics, and for tasks that avoid common weaknesses such as a non‐representative selection of trick questions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Duty to Support Nationalistic Policies

We demonstrate that citizens perceive a duty to support policies that benefit their nation, even when they themselves judge that the consequences of the policies will be worse on the whole, taking outsiders into account. In terms of actions, subjects think they would do their perceived duty rather than violate it for the sake of better consequences. The discrepancy between duty and judged consequences does not seem to result from self‐interest alone. When asked for reasons, many subjects felt an obligation to help their fellow citizens before others, and they also thought that they owed something to their nation, in return for what it did for them. The obligation to help fellow citizens was the strongest predictor of perceived duty. In an experiment with Israeli and Palestinian students, group membership affected both perceived overall consequences and duty, but the effect of group on perceived consequences did not account for the effect on perceived duty. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Normative and Descriptive Models of Military Decisions to Deploy Precision Strike Capabilities

Precision strike capabilities represent a significant and highly controversial part of present day military operations. And yet, there is a surprising dearth of empirical research on military decision making in this domain. In this article, we therefore review different psychological perspectives on how these decisions can be made. Specifically, we compare the application of normative models of judgment and choice against the empirical research on human decision making, which suggests that people are more likely to employ heuristic strategies. We suggest that several features of decision tasks in the precision strike domain evoke the use of intuitive (heuristic) decision making whereas other features such as the sometimes unfamiliar (or novel) nature of the decision task requires analytic strategies to generate good solutions. Therefore, decisions about precision strike capabilities are best made with a mixture of intuitive and analytic thought, a mode of thinking known as quasirationality.     

Agreement and similarity in self-other perceptions of moral character

We surveyed well-acquainted dyads about two key moral character traits (Honesty–Humility, Guilt Proneness), as well as several other individual differences. We examined self-other agreement, similarity, assumed similarity, and similarity-free agreement (i.e., self-other agreement controlling for similarity and assumed similarity). Participants projected their own level of moral character onto their peers (i.e., moderately high assumed similarity), but were nonetheless able to judge moral character with reasonable accuracy (moderately high self-other agreement and similarity-free agreement), suggesting that moral character traits can be detected by well-acquainted others. Regardless of reporting method, Honesty–Humility and Guilt Proneness were correlated with delinquency, unethical decision making, and counterproductive work behavior, suggesting that unethical behavior is committed disproportionately by people with low levels of these character traits.     

人格判断的准确性:特质特性的作用

特质特性是影响人格判断准确性的重要调节变量。已有的研究表明,可观察性高的特质容易判断,判断的准确性和一致性也更高;特质的可评估性干扰了自我知觉的准确性,与中性特质相比,可评估性特质的自我—他人一致性更低;与清晰特质相比,模糊特质的自我—同伴判断间的一致性更低,且随特质模糊性的增加而递减。不仅如此,特质特性经常与其他因素如熟悉度交互作用于人格判断的准确性,在考查特质特性的作用时,必须提高研究的生态效度,将该变量与特性匹配、特质分类、个体差异及文化差异等因素综合起来考虑。     

跨文化判断与决策(英文)

本文对判断和决策研究领域所发现的跨文化差异进行了回顾。鉴于大多数判断和决策的跨文化研究都集中于对亚洲和西方文化的比较,本文也主要关注这方面的研究发现。具体来说,本文回顾了在概率判断及信心、风险知觉、冒险行为、消费者行为以及经济判断和决策中所存在的跨文化差异。综述结果表明尽管亚洲人和西方人的判断和决策行为存在很大的跨文化差异,研究也发现了显著的文化内差异。目前关于判断和决策的跨文化差异的研究还相对匮乏,未来还需要更多的研究来进一步了解判断和决策行为的跨文化差别及机制。     

Altered working memory capacity for social threat words in high versus low social anxiety

ABSTRACT

Background and objectives: Differences in working memory capacity (WMC) have been suggested in individuals with high levels of social anxiety (SA). Specifically, these individuals may preferentially maintain socially threatening material in working memory.

Design and methods: We adapted the digit span task to a series of word span tasks. We assessed WMC for lists of words that varied in terms of their threat-relatedness, in individuals either high or low in SA.

Results: Experiment 1 revealed reduced WMC for socially threatening words in those with high compared to low SA. Importantly, this relative reduction in WMC was driven by the low SA group showing expanded capacity for socially threatening words relative to neutral or generally threatening words. Furthermore, reductions in WMC for social threat were uniquely predicted by SA, and not by other theoretically related constructs such as state general anxiety, trait general anxiety, or depression. Experiment 2 showed that the semantic similarity of the words within each list was not responsible for the differences in WMC between list type or SA group.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that individuals high in SA may fail to upregulate WMC for social information due to the activation of, or rumination upon, socially threatening concepts.     

Alternative motivation: a new challenge to moral judgment internalism

Internalists argue that there is a necessary connection between motivation and moral judgment. The examination of cases plays an important role in philosophical debate about internalism. This debate has focused on cases concerning the failure to act in accordance with a moral judgment, for one reason or another. I call these failure cases. I argue that a different sort of case is also relevant to this debate. This sort of case is characterized by (1) moral judgment and (2) behavior that accords with the content of the moral judgment but that has been performed not because of the moral judgment. Instead it is due to some other source of motivation. I call these alternative motivation cases. I distinguish two sorts of alternative motivation cases, and I argue that externalists have natural explanations of these cases. By contrast, extant internalist accounts of failure cases are inadequate when applied to alternative motivation cases.     

Null category-length and target–lure relatedness effects in episodic recognition: A constraint on item-noise interference models

There are two main classes of model of interference effects in recognition memory: item-noise and context-noise. Item-noise models predict that a loss of memory discriminability will occur with an increase in the number of studied items from the same taxonomic category (category length, CL) and that forced-choice recognition performance will be higher when the target and lure are related rather than unrelated. Context-noise models, however, predict null effects for both of these manipulations. Although results from some recent experiments suggest that CL and target–lure relatedness have a trivial or no effect on memory discriminability when the related items from the same taxonomic category are “not back to back in the study list but are separated (spaced) by interleaving items from other semantic categories,” these experiments have methodological limitations that were eliminated in the present experiment in which exemplars representing category lengths of 2, 8, or 14 were presented spaced apart within the same study list. Recognition was tested using a yes/no recognition test or a two-alternative forced-choice recognition test in which the target and lure were either related or unrelated. In yes/no recognition, d′ decreased as CL increased, replicating prior research. However, when the slope of the z-ROC function is less than 1.0, as is typically so and was so in the present results, d′ differences can arise due to criterion shifts and are not necessarily due to memory discriminability differences. When the more appropriate measure of memory discriminability, d _a , was computed, CL had no effect in yes/no recognition, nor did it have an effect in forced-choice recognition, which also was not affected by target–lure relatedness. Thus, the present results are congruent with context-noise models and pose a challenge for item-noise models.