‘Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!’: Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task

Human choice under uncertainty is influenced by erroneous beliefs about randomness. In simple binary choice tasks, such as red/black predictions in roulette, long outcome runs (e.g. red, red, red) typically increase the tendency to predict the other outcome (i.e. black), an effect labeled the “gambler's fallacy.” In these settings, participants may also attend to streaks in their predictive performance. Winning and losing streaks are thought to affect decision confidence, although prior work indicates conflicting directions. Over three laboratory experiments involving red/black predictions in a sequential roulette task, we sought to identify the effects of outcome runs and winning/losing streaks upon color predictions, decision confidence and betting behavior. Experiments 1 (n = 40) and 3 (n = 40) obtained trial‐by‐trial confidence ratings, with a win/no win payoff and a no loss/loss payoff, respectively. Experiment 2 (n = 39) obtained a trial‐by‐trial bet amount on an equivalent scale. In each experiment, the gambler's fallacy was observed on choice behavior after color runs and, in experiment 2, on betting behavior after color runs. Feedback streaks exerted no reliable influence on confidence ratings, in either payoff condition. Betting behavior, on the other hand, increased as a function of losing streaks. The increase in betting on losing streaks is interpreted as a manifestation of loss chasing; these data help clarify the psychological mechanisms underlying loss chasing and caution against the use of betting measures (“post‐decision wagering”) as a straightforward index of decision confidence. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

The role of preference in speed choice

Individual differences with regard to speed preference may be a source of speed heterogeneity and conflicts in traffic, such as tailgating and dangerous overtaking. The main aim of the current study was to explore drivers’ speed preferences when driving for different reasons (saving money on fuel, driving safely, driving for fun or driving as usual) and the relationship of these preferences to observed speeds and self-reported speed. 193 drivers were interviewed at five different locations, and were asked about their speeds on roads they had just travelled. Drivers’ speeds on these roads were also sampled with a speed gun. The results showed large differences between speeds chosen for different driving purposes; the lowest speeds were chosen when the goal was economy and the highest when driving for fun. In addition, there were individual differences in speed preferences such that some drivers indicated that their usual speed was above what they believed was a safe speed while others indicated that they usually drove even slower than what they thought was safe. These differences may account for much of the speed heterogeneity observed in on-road behaviour. The results also showed that drivers’ speed choices are highly influenced by their usual speeds, even more so than their beliefs regarding what constitutes a safe speed, which may help explain non-compliance with speed limits. No relationship was found between speed choice and risk perception.     

Entry and exit as embodied career choice in professional sport

The concept of an embodied career draws attention to the individual, corporally, socially, culturally and institutionally located in relationship with work. Career theories have tended to focus on psychological and social variables and measurements that narrow understanding of contexts and agency. It is thus timely to consider a more holistic approach to understanding contemporary careers as embodied processes. The paper works on three levels; first as an empirical illustration of professional sports careers as short-term careers, second as an application of Bourdieu's habitus to understand the relationship between social fields and accounts of career choice and, third in order to draw parallels with the embodied nature of work in a more general sense. Utilising empirical material from a study of elite UK professional rugby players, it is argued that understanding an embodied-career resonates with present concerns regarding career patterns of short-term contracts, which require the individual to be committed, flexible and adaptable, be prepared for exit, and yet remain immersed and dedicated to the current sphere of employment. It is proposed that this kind of immersion requires alternatives to be, temporarily at least, silenced and in this context renders the accrual of bodily capital as fit, but only temporarily fit for purpose.     

Reinforcement value and substitutability of sucrose and wheel running: implications for activity anorexia

Choice between sucrose and wheel-running reinforcement was assessed in two experiments. In the first experiment, ten male Wistar rats were exposed to concurrent VI 30 s VI 30 s schedules of wheel-running and sucrose reinforcement. Sucrose concentration varied across concentrations of 2.5, 7.5, and 12.5%. As concentration increased, more behavior was allocated to sucrose and more reinforcements were obtained from that alternative. Allocation of behavior to wheel running decreased, but obtained wheel-running reinforcement did not change. Overall, the results suggested that food-deprived rats were sensitive to qualitative changes in food supply (sucrose concentration) while continuing to defend a level of physical activity (wheel running). In the second study, 15 female Long Evans rats were exposed to concurrent variable ratio schedules of sucrose and wheel-running, wheel-running and wheel-running, and sucrose and sucrose reinforcement. For each pair of reinforcers, substitutability was assessed by the effect of income-compensated price changes on consumption of the two reinforcers. Results showed that, as expected, sucrose substituted for sucrose and wheel running substituted for wheel running. Wheel running, however, did not substitute for sucrose; but sucrose partially substituted for wheel running. We address the implications of the interrelationships of sucrose and wheel running for an understanding of activity anorexia.     

Fix and sample with rats in the dynamics of choice

The generality of the molar view of behavior was extended to the study of choice with rats, showing the usefulness of studying order at various levels of extendedness. Rats' presses on two levers produced food according to concurrent variable-interval variable-interval schedules. Seven different reinforcer ratios were arranged within each session, without cues identifying them, and separated by blackouts. To alternate between levers, rats pressed on a third changeover lever. Choice changed rapidly with changes in component reinforcer ratio, and more presses occurred on the lever with the higher reinforcer rate. With continuing reinforcers, choice shifted progressively in the direction of the reinforced lever, but shifted more slowly with each new reinforcer. Sensitivity to reinforcer ratio, as estimated by the generalized matching law, reached an average of 0.9 and exceeded that documented in previous studies with pigeons. Visits to the more-reinforced lever preceded by a reinforcer from that lever increased in duration, while all visits to the less-reinforced lever decreased in duration. Thus, the rats' performances moved faster toward fix and sample than did pigeons' performances in previous studies. Analysis of the effects of sequences of reinforcer sources indicated that sequences of five to seven reinforcers might have sufficed for studying local effects of reinforcers with rats. This study supports the idea that reinforcer sequences control choice between reinforcers, pulses in preference, and visits following reinforcers.     

Choice between single and multiple reinforcers in concurrent-chains schedules

Pigeons responded on concurrent-chains schedules with equal variable-interval schedules as initial links. One terminal link delivered a single reinforcer after a fixed delay, and the other terminal link delivered either three or five reinforcers, each preceded by a fixed delay. Some conditions included a postreinforcer delay after the single reinforcer to equate the total durations of the two terminal links, but other conditions did not include such a postreinforcer delay. With short initial links, preference for the single-reinforcer alternative decreased when a postreinforcer delay was present, but with long initial links, the postreinforcer delays had no significant effect on preference. In conditions with a postreinforcer delay, preference for the single-reinforcer alternative frequently switched from above 50% to below 50% as the initial links were lengthened. This pattern of results was consistent with delay-reduction theory (Squires & Fantino, 1971), but not with the contextual-choice model (Grace, 1994) or the hyperbolic value-added model (Mazur, 2001) as they have usually been applied. However, the hyperbolic value-added model could account for the results if its calculations were expanded to include reinforcers delivered in later terminal links. The implications of these findings for models of concurrent-chains performance are discussed.     

Conceptions of career choice and attainment: Developmental levels in how children think about careers

Children’s Conceptions of career choice and attainment were evaluated in two studies to test whether reasoning levels varied by grade level (Studies 1 and 2) and perspective-taking complexity (Study 2). Results indicated that younger children (Grade K) were more likely to use reasoning strategies associated with fantasy and magical thinking and older children (Grade 6) were more likely to consider personal interests, abilities, and job requirements. Study 2 replicated these results and also found that children evaluated as able to use more complex perspective-taking reported higher reasoning levels when discussing their Conceptions of career choice and attainment.     

Trait emotional intelligence profiles of students from different university faculties

This study investigated the trait emotional intelligence (trait EI or trait emotional self‐efficacy) profiles of 512 students from five university faculties: technical studies, natural sciences, social sciences, arts, and humanities. Using the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire, it was hypothesised that (a) social sciences would score higher than technical studies in Emotionality, (b) arts would score higher than technical studies in Emotionality, (c) arts would score lower than technical studies in Self‐control, and (d) there would be an interaction between gender and faculty, whereby female students would score higher than male students within the social sciences only. Several other exploratory comparisons were also performed. Results supported hypotheses (a), (b), and (d), but not hypothesis (c), although the differences were in the predicted direction.     

A comparison of the effects of providing activity and material choice to children with autism spectrum disorders

The present study compares the effects of providing choice between activities or between materials for completion of activities on the on-task behavior of 4 boys with autism spectrum disorders. Results showed that the participants displayed higher levels of on-task behavior during the choice conditions than in the no-choice condition. However, the type of choice opportunity did not seem to have a differential effect.     

Effects of positive and negative delusional ideation on memory

We investigated the relationship between levels of delusional ideation (whether positive or negative delusions) and the activation and distortion of memory by using pairs of positive and negative adjectives describing personality traits where those adjectives had similar meanings. We presented one of each pair of adjectives in the learning phase. Immediately after the learning phase in Experiment 1, we asked whether each adjective had been presented. Participants with high (positive or negative) delusional ideation were more likely to indicate that they had learned adjectives that they had not actually learned. This finding suggested that non-learned positive (or negative) adjectives that were associated with learned negative (or positive) adjectives were more likely to be activated in participants prone to positive (or negative) delusional ideation. However, in Experiment 2, two forced-choice tests were conducted immediately after the learning phase. In this context, participants, regardless of their proneness to delusional ideation, could almost always correctly distinguish what had and had not been presented, suggesting that the activation of learned items was still stronger than that for non-learned items in the immediate test. As time passed, the proportion of false alarms for positive or negative adjectives was higher in the two forced-choice tests among those with high proneness to (positive or negative) delusional ideation, suggesting that participants with delusional ideation were increasingly likely to depend on internal conditions for retrieval over time. Nous avons examiné la relation entre les niveaux d'idéation illusoire (qu'elle soit positive ou négative) et l'activation et la distorsion de la mémoire, en utilisant des paires d'adjectifs positifs et négatifs à significations similaires décrivant des traits de personnalité. Nous avons présenté un membre de chaque paire d'adjectifs lors d'une phase d'apprentissage. Dans une première expérience, immédiatement après la phase d'apprentissage, nous avons demandé si chaque adjectif avait été présenté. Les participants ayant un niveau d'idéation illusoire (positive ou négative) élevé étaient plus susceptibles d'indiquer qu'ils avaient appris les adjectifs qu'ils n'avaient pas appris. Ce résultat suggérait que les adjectifs positifs (ou négatifs) non appris qui étaient associés à des adjectifs négatifs (ou positifs) appris étaient plus susceptibles d'être activés chez les participants portés à l'idéation illusoire positive (ou négative). Dans une deuxième expérience, deux tests à choix forcés ont été menés immédiatement après la phase d'apprentissage. Dans ce contexte, les participants, indépendamment de leur tendance à l'idéation illusoire, pouvaient presque toujours distinguer correctement ce qui avait été présenté de ce qui n'avait pas été présenté, suggérant que l'activation des items appris était encore plus forte que celle des items non appris dans le test immédiat. Avec le temps, la proportion de fausses alarmes pour les adjectifs positifs ou négatifs était plus élevée dans les deux tests à choix forcés chez les participants portés à l'idéation illusoire (positive ou négative), ce qui suggère que les participants avec idéation illusoire étaient de plus en plus susceptibles de dépendre de leurs conditions internes lors du rappel à mesure que le temps passait. En este estudio se investigó la relación entre los niveles de ideación delusional (tanto delusiones positivas como negativas) y la activación y distorsión de la memoria a través del uso de pares de adjetivos positivos y negativos que describen rasgos de personalidad. Estos pares de adjetivos tenían significados similares. En la fase de aprendizaje se presentó un miembro de cada par de adjetivos. Inmediatamente después de la fase de aprendizaje se realizó el primer experimento, en el cual se preguntó al participanten si es que se le habían presentado cada uno de los adjetivos. Los participantes con elevada ideación delusiva (positiva o negativa) reportaran con una mayor probabilidad haber aprendido adjetivos que en realidad no se les había presentado. Este hallazgo sugiere que adjetivos positivos (o negativos) no aprendidos que estaban asociados con adjetivos negativos (o positivos) aprendidos, tenían una mayor probabilidad de ser activados en participantes propensos a una ideación delusiva positiva (o negativa). En el segundo experimento se llevaron a cabo inmediatamente después de la fase de aprendizaje dos pruebas de decisión forzada. En este contexto se pudo observar que los participantes a pesar de su tendencia hacia una ideación delusional, lograron distinguir en la mayoría de los casos correctamente entre los adjetivos que les fueron presentado y lo que no. Esto sugiere que la activación de los items aprendidos fue mucho más intensa que la de los items no aprendidos en el test. Sin embargo se pudo observar en los participantes de las dos pruebas de decisión forzada que con el paso del tiempo el porcentaje de falso reconocimiento de adjetivos positivos y negativos fue más elevado entre aquellas personas con una alta tendencia hacia una ideación delusional (positiva o negativa). Esto sugiere que en participantes con ideación delusional el reconocimiento de información a lo largo del tiempo probablemente es muy dependiente de condiciones internas.