Obtaining the best value for money in adaptive sequential estimation

In [Kujala, J. V., Richardson, U., &; Lyytinen, H. (2010). A Bayesian-optimal principle for learner-friendly adaptation in learning games. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 54(2), 247–255], we considered an extension of the conventional Bayesian adaptive estimation framework to situations where each observable variable is associated with a certain random cost of observation. We proposed an algorithm that chooses each placement by maximizing the expected gain in utility divided by the expected cost. In this paper, we formally justify this placement rule as an asymptotically optimal solution to the problem of maximizing the expected utility of an experiment that terminates when the total cost overruns a given budget. For example, the cost could be defined as the random time taken by each trial in an experiment, and one might wish to maximize the expected total information gain over as many trials as can be completed in 15 min. A simple, analytically tractable example is considered.     

青少年测量估计能力的发展状况及相关因素

测量估计(简称估测)是上世纪七十年代数学认知领域兴起的研究热点之一。采用自编的测验任务对747名青少年估测能力的发展状况及相关因素进行了考察。其中测验任务包括长度和面积估测两种类型,并且每种类型都采用了图形和实物两种题目形式。被试平均年龄为17.11岁。结果发现青少年的估测能力的发展表现出如下特点:(1)青少年的总体估测能力普遍较低;(2)青少年的估测能力在初中阶段会显著提高,但之后的发展相对缓慢;(3)青少年的估测成绩易受任务类型和题目形式的影响。对长度任务的估测成绩好于对面积的估测;对图形题目的估测成绩好于对实际物体的估测;(4)青少年的估测能力不存在明显性别差异。     

相似任务经验和未来时间充裕感对计划失误的影响

本研究检验了人们一种潜在的认知倾向,即低估任务的完成时间。本研究分为2个实验,从两个角度来研究人们低估任务时间的行为。实验一从不同预测方式的角度,检验了任务的相似性和认知需求因素对任务时间估计的影响。实验二从未来时间知觉的角度,检验了未来时间充裕感对任务的完成时间预测的影响。结果表明:不同的时间预测方式都会引起对任务完成/持续时间的低估;任务的相似性会利于任务时间估计的精确性;认知需求因素会和任务的相似性产生交互作用,从而影响任务完成时间的估计;未来时间充裕感的程度也会影响人们对当前任务的预测。     

Estimation of trade‐off between costs of preprocessing and primary processing

When people engage in a task, they often take preliminary actions (preprocessing) to simplify primary processing. Usually, a trade‐off is made between the costs of preprocessing and primary processing. We conducted three experiments to find out whether people could adaptively estimate the utility of preprocessing depending on the task situation. The result demonstrated that in performing a high‐complexity task, almost all the participants reduced their overall task performance cost by conducting cost‐adaptive preprocessing. However, for a low‐complexity task, participants tended to conduct preprocessing even though this increased overall task performance cost. Based on these results, we discuss human nature from the viewpoint of the influence of cognitive effort.     

Application of the Within- and Between-Series Estimators to Non-normal Multiple-Baseline Data: Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Approaches

In single-case research, multiple-baseline (MB) design provides the opportunity to estimate the treatment effect based on not only within-series comparisons of treatment phase to baseline phase observations, but also time-specific between-series comparisons of observations from those that have started treatment to those that are still in the baseline. For analyzing MB studies, two types of linear mixed modeling methods have been proposed: the within- and between-series models. In principle, those models were developed based on normality assumptions, however, normality may not always be found in practical settings. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the robustness of the within- and between-series models when data were non-normal. A Monte Carlo study was conducted with four statistical approaches. The approaches were defined by the crossing of two analytic decisions: (a) whether to use a within- or between-series estimate of effect and (b) whether to use restricted maximum likelihood or Markov chain Monte Carlo estimations. The results showed the treatment effect estimates of the four approaches had minimal bias, that within-series estimates were more precise than between-series estimates, and that confidence interval coverage was frequently acceptable, but varied across conditions and methods of estimation. Applications and implications were discussed based on the findings.     

Parameter Inference for Computational Cognitive Models with Approximate Bayesian Computation

This paper addresses a common challenge with computational cognitive models: identifying parameter values that are both theoretically plausible and generate predictions that match well with empirical data. While computational models can offer deep explanations of cognition, they are computationally complex and often out of reach of traditional parameter fitting methods. Weak methodology may lead to premature rejection of valid models or to acceptance of models that might otherwise be falsified. Mathematically robust fitting methods are, therefore, essential to the progress of computational modeling in cognitive science. In this article, we investigate the capability and role of modern fitting methods—including Bayesian optimization and approximate Bayesian computation—and contrast them to some more commonly used methods: grid search and Nelder–Mead optimization. Our investigation consists of a reanalysis of the fitting of two previous computational models: an Adaptive Control of Thought—Rational model of skill acquisition and a computational rationality model of visual search. The results contrast the efficiency and informativeness of the methods. A key advantage of the Bayesian methods is the ability to estimate the uncertainty of fitted parameter values. We conclude that approximate Bayesian computation is (a) efficient, (b) informative, and (c) offers a path to reproducible results.     

Bidirectional examination of the interaction between time and numerosity corroborates that numerosity influences time estimation but not vice versa

There has been great interest in the idea that time, number, and space share a common magnitude system. However, only a handful of studies examined bidirectional interaction between time and number and the results varied depending on the specifics of the methods and stimulus properties of each study. The present study investigated bidirectional interaction between time and number using estimation tasks. We used duration (Experiment 1) and numerosity (Experiment 2) estimation tasks to investigate the effect of numerosity‐on‐duration and duration‐on‐numerosity estimation. The results from the two experiments demonstrated that numerosity influences duration processing but not vice versa; that is, there was unidirectional interaction between numerosity and time. The duration of stimulus presentation was overestimated for stimuli larger in (task‐irrelevant) numerosity. Possible mechanisms underlying the unidirectional interaction between time and number are discussed.     

A ratio scale for social distance

Choosing a larger–later reward over a smaller–sooner reward may be thought of as altruism toward one's future self. A question that arises in this connection is: What is the relation between delay and social discounting? To begin to answer this question, social and delay discount functions need to be comparable. Delay is ordinarily measured on a ratio scale (time), which allows for meaningful division and addition. Social distance is ordinarily measured on an ordinal scale (rank order of social closeness). To convert social distance to a ratio scale we use a psychophysical distance function obtained via magnitude estimation (Stevens, 1956). The distance functions obtained are well described by a power function (median exponent = 1.9); we show how they may be used to rescale ordinal to ratio social discount functions.     

Accuracy of retrospective memory and covariation estimation in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder

Assessment methods relying on biased or inaccurate retrospective recall may distort knowledge about the nature of disorders and lead to faulty clinical inferences. Despite concerns about the accuracy of retrospective recall in general and in particular with obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD) patients, the accuracy of retrospective recall for one's own symptoms assessed in vivo is unknown in this population. This study used a prospective ecological momentary assessment (EMA) methodology to create a criterion against which to assess recall accuracy in OCD patients. Although results indicated that patients’ retrospective recall of OCD symptoms was fairly accurate, they consistently overestimated the magnitude of OCD symptom covariation with non-OCD facets (e.g., sleep duration, contemporaneous stress level, etc.). Findings suggest that even when recall of OCD symptoms is accurate, patients may be inaccurate in estimating symptom covariation. The findings have implications for the research, case conceptualization, and assessment of OCD, and may extend to other disorders.     

Who is causing what? The sense of agency is relational and efferent-triggered

The sense of agency ("I did that") is a basic feature of our subjective experience. Experimental studies usually focus on either its attributional aspects (the "I" of "I did that") or on its motoric aspects (the "did" aspect of "I did that"). Here, we combine both aspects and focus on the subjective experience of the time between action and effect. Previous studies [Haggard, P., Aschersleben, G., Gehrke, J., & Prinz, W. (2002a). Action, binding and awareness. In W. Prinz, & B. Hommel (Eds.), Common mechanisms in perception and action: Attention and performance (Vol. XIX, pp. 266-285). Oxford: Oxford University Press] have shown a temporal attraction in the perceived times of actions and effects, but did directly not study the relation between them. In three experiments, time estimates of an interval between an action and its subsequent sensory effect were obtained. The actions were either voluntary key press actions performed by the participant or kinematically identical movements applied passively to the finger. The effects were either auditory or visual events or a passive movement induced to another finger. The results first indicated a shortening of the interval between one's own voluntary action and a subsequent effect, relative to passive movement conditions. Second, intervals initiated by observed movements, either of another person or of an inanimate object, were always perceived like those involving passive movements of one's own body, and never like those involving active movements. Third, this binding effect was comparable for auditory, somatic and visual effects of action. Our results provide the first direct evidence that agency involves a generalisable relation between actions and their consequences, and is triggered by efferent motor commands.