Guess Who Buys Cheap? The Effect of Consumers’ Goal Orientation on Product Preference

The current research examines how goal orientation affects consumer preference among products with different prices. We argue that a less expensive product may have not only lower perceived quality but also greater perceived quality variability. This greater perceived variability provides the opportunity for optimistic, promotion‐oriented consumers to overestimate the quality of the less expensive product. This effect is weaker, however, for a more expensive product that consumers perceive to have less quality variability and which thus provides less room for quality overestimation. As a result, we hypothesize that promotion‐oriented consumers, as compared to prevention‐oriented consumers, will demonstrate a stronger preference for a less expensive product. In a field study and two laboratory experiments, we obtain empirical support both for the hypothesized effect of consumers’ goal orientation on their product preference and for its underlying process. We conclude with a discussion of the theoretical and practical implications of our results.     

Bootstrap区间估计在认知诊断模型误设中的应用

认知诊断模型选择是认知诊断评估中重要研究问题之一。在实际应用中实践者并不知道真正拟合数据的模型,通常会用模型拟合指标检验模型与数据的拟合程度。从测量结果质量来看,除保证模型与数据拟合之外,还需要重点评价模型诊断结果的信度和效度等。考虑到以往研究大都采用基于信息量的拟合指标去判定模型与数据的匹配性,本研究提出综合考虑模型拟合指标与信度指标用于模型选择或评价模型误设。考虑实验因素为真实模型或分析模型（DINA模型、G-DINA模型、R-RUM模型）、样本量、题量和属性个数,在五因素（3×3×2×2×2）实验设计条件下,比较Bootstrap区间估计的属性分类一致性信度平均数与标准误和常用的拟合统计量-2LL、AIC、BIC对正确模型的选择率。结果表明：-2LL在题目数量多的情况下表现较好,而AIC、BIC在被试量较大的情况下表现较好,在不同的研究条件下,-2LL、AIC、BIC的模型选择率很不稳定,而用Bootstrap法估计的属性分类一致性信度平均数和标准误在不同研究条件的模型选择率较稳定,总体表现较好。     

Errors in subtractions: judged and observed frequencies

In a first study 10 adults, aged 24-44 years, solved all 105 subtraction problems in the form M - N = , where 0 < or = M < or = 13, 0 < or = N < or = 13 and N < or = M. Each participant solved every problem 10 times and in total there were 10 500 answers. Answers, response latencies and errors were registered. Retrospective verbal reports were also given, indicating how a solution was reached: (1) via a (conscious) reconstructive cognitive process or (2) via an (unconscious) reproductive (retrieval) process. The participants made 291 errors (2.8%) when solving the subtractions in study 1. The rate of self-correction was very high, 92%. In a second study 27 undergraduate students estimated overall error rates, including self-corrected errors for the 105 subtraction problems used in the first study. Judged and actual error rates were compared. The participants systematically underestimated error rates for error prone problems and overestimated error rates for error free problems. The participants were fairly accurate when they predicted problems that were most error prone, with a hit rate of 0.67 for the (18) problems predicted as the most error prone ones. In contrast, predictions of which problems were error free were very poor with a hit rate of only 0.20 of the problems predicted as error free really having no errors in study 1. The correlation between judged error rates and frequencies for actually made errors was 0.69 for answers belonging to reconstructive solutions. In contrast, there was no significant correlation between judged and actual error rates at all for retrieved solutions, possibly reflecting the inaccessibility to consciousness of quick retrieval processes.     

Multilevel Modeling with Correlated Effects

When there exist omitted effects, measurement error, and/or simultaneity in multilevel models, explanatory variables may be correlated with random components, and standard estimation methods do not provide consistent estimates of model parameters. This paper introduces estimators that are consistent under such conditions. By employing generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation techniques in multilevel modeling, the authors present a series of estimators along a robust to efficient continuum. This continuum depends on the assumptions that the analyst makes regarding the extent of the correlated effects. It is shown that the GMM approach provides an overarching framework that encompasses well-known estimators such as fixed and random effects estimators and also provides more options. These GMM estimators can be expressed as instrumental variable (IV) estimators which enhances their interpretability. Moreover, by exploiting the hierarchical structure of the data, the current technique does not require additional variables unlike traditional IV methods. Further, statistical tests are developed to compare the different estimators. A simulation study examines the finite sample properties of the estimators and tests and confirms the theoretical order of the estimators with respect to their robustness and efficiency. It further shows that not only are regression coefficients biased, but variance components may be severely underestimated in the presence of correlated effects. Empirical standard errors are employed as they are less sensitive to correlated effects when compared to model-based standard errors. An example using student achievement data shows that GMM estimators can be effectively used in a search for the most efficient among unbiased estimators. This research was supported by the National Academy of Education/Spencer Foundation and the National Science Foundation, grant number SES-0436274. We thank the editor, associate editor, and referees for detailed feedback that helped improve the paper.     

A Pearson-Type-VII item response model for assessing person fluctuation

Using Lumsden’s Thurstonian fluctuation model as a starting point, this paper attempts to develop a unidimensional item response theory model intended for binary personality items. Under some additional assumptions, a new model is obtained in which the item characteristic curves are defined by a cumulative Pearson-Type-VII distribution, and the person response curves are two-parameter normal ogives. Procedures for fitting the new model are proposed. Furthermore, the relations between individual fluctuation and scalability are discussed, and a scalability index based on the new model is proposed. All the developments in this paper are illustrated using two empirical examples.     

注意在短时距估计中的作用

注意一直是时间知觉研究的一个重要问题。本文综述了研究已经取得一些较为一致的结果：在双任务程序中对时间任务的注意越多,时距估计越准确;在单一任务中对目标刺激的时间属性注意越多,对该刺激的持续时距估计越准确;在时间导向任务中,个体可以有效地、主动把注意导向未来的某段时距,那么将对出现在那个时刻的刺激做出更好的反应。最后,讨论了现有研究中存在的、以及今后研究中需要着重考虑的问题。     

Representational change and children's numerical estimation

We applied overlapping waves theory and microgenetic methods to examine how children improve their estimation proficiency, and in particular how they shift from reliance on immature to mature representations of numerical magnitude. We also tested the theoretical prediction that feedback on problems on which the discrepancy between two representations is greatest will cause the greatest representational change. Second graders who initially were assessed as relying on an immature representation were presented feedback that varied in degree of discrepancy between the predictions of the mature and immature representations. The most discrepant feedback produced the greatest representational change. The change was strikingly abrupt, often occurring after a single feedback trial, and impressively broad, affecting estimates over the entire range of numbers from 0 to 1000. The findings indicated that cognitive change can occur at the level of an entire representation, rather than always involving a sequence of local repairs.     

数学学业不良儿童的估算情感特点研究

运用自编估算测试材料,通过与学优生相比较,考察了数学学业不良儿童的估算情感特点及与估算能力的关系,被试为40名小学六年级学生。结果表明:1.学业不良儿童的估算情感总分明显低于学优儿童,学业不良儿童在数学自信心和估算情感认同这两个维度上表现较为消极。2.学业不良儿童的估算情感认同与他们的估算成绩之间关系更为密切。     

Semi‐parametric proportional hazards models with crossed random effects for psychometric response times

The semi‐parametric proportional hazards model with crossed random effects has two important characteristics: it avoids explicit specification of the response time distribution by using semi‐parametric models, and it captures heterogeneity that is due to subjects and items. The proposed model has a proportionality parameter for the speed of each test taker, for the time intensity of each item, and for subject or item characteristics of interest. It is shown how all these parameters can be estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (Gibbs sampling). The performance of the estimation procedure is assessed with simulations and the model is further illustrated with the analysis of response times from a visual recognition task.     

算术策略运用能力的年龄差异：元认知监测与算术知识的作用

采用选择/无选法,以估算与精确心算为研究任务,考察了元认知监测与算术知识影响个体算术计算策略选择与执行的年龄相关差异。129名不同年龄儿童与成人被试参加实验。结果发现：（1）算术知识对儿童及成人的估算复杂策略有促进作用,并对提升他们心算策略运用的速度和减少错误有作用;（2）元认知监测显著影响儿童的估算策略选择,能够促进使用最佳策略;（3）算术知识在估算及心算策略执行的年龄差异方面起完全中介作用,元认知监测则在估算策略选择的年龄发展中起部分中介作用;（4）算术知识对元认知监测在估算及心算策略执行上的作用起完全中介作用,而对估算的策略选择则不存在中介作用,这表明元认知监测在估算策略选择上具有举足轻重的地位。