Postdecision consolidation in a trend prediction task

To be able to learn from experience it is necessary to correctly apprehend experienced feedback and the situation in which it is provided. The results indicate how post-decision consolidation in complex domains may affect learning. The problem may be particularly pertinent in recurrent decision making where considerable risk is involved. The study explores the changes in aspect (signal) importance from pre- to postdiction as a function of outcome information. By postdiction we mean the remembering of an earlier prediction (cf. Hawkins & Hastie, 1990). Subjects were asked to decide on which of four alternative future price developments would follow a historical price trajectory for different commodities, and to rate the importance of each of the chosen alternative's corresponding aspects. The subjects revealed a bias in their support ratings of aspects--seeing support in aspects that traditionally (by themselves and in many contexts) would be seen as neutral or even counter-indicative of the alternative chosen. After an intermission, the subjects were also given information about what was indicated to be the actual development of the market. One group was told that their decisions were correct (irrespective of what the decisions were), another group that they were incorrect but close, a third group that they were incorrect by far, while a fourth group served as a control. Following this information the subjects were again asked to judge the importance of the aspects for their own prior decision on the most likely future development. The results indicated that outcome feed-back had an effect on post decision restructuring of facts. Subjects in the correct condition showed an average consolidation that increased the support, while the wrong conditions lead to negative consolidation (in retrospect indicating that they never found as much support for their decision in the past as they actually did). Thus, in a choice between consolidating their own initial prediction and the price trajectory they would have to live with, the decision makers consolidated the outcome. Therefore, the results of the study were related to the hindsight bias phenomenon (Fischhoff, 1975) and to Kahneman and Miller's (1986) mutability concept.     

Antecedent reactivation by surface and deep anaphora in Norwegian

Anaphora are expressions in language that depend on other linguistic entities for their full meaning. They can furthermore be divided into two types according to the level of representation where they find their antecedents: Surface anaphora, which resolve their reference at the sentence representation level, and deep anaphora, which resolve their reference at the non-grammatical level of discourse representation. The linguistic theory of these two anaphor types, and recent findings about processing differences at these two levels, combine to predict that surface anaphora should show fast and immediate reactivation of their antecedents, whereas deep anaphora should have a slower time course of antecedent re-access. These predictions were confirmed with two lexical decision task experiments with Norwegian stimuli.     

Comprehending Semantic and Grammatical Violations in Italian. N400 and P600 Comparison with Visual and Auditory Stimuli

Arguments about the existence of language-specific neural systems and specifically about the independence of syntactic and semantic processing have focused on the event-related brain measures (ERPs) as tool to monitoring moment-by-moment the cognitive processes underlaid. In the present experiments, the available evidence indicates that the ERP response to semantic anomalies is at least partially distinct from the ERP response to syntactic anomalies and that two distinct processes are activated in sentences comprehension. ERPs were recorded from 10 electrodes while subjects read (Experiment 1) or listened (Experiment 2) to sentences containing semantic or syntactic violations. Final-words that were inconsistent with the sentence context elicited a negative-going wave at about 400 ms poststimulus, whereas penultimate-word incongruous with the grammatical structure (subject–verb non-agreement) elicited a positive-going wave about 600 ms poststimulus. No differences based on the perceptual modality of the stimulus (visual or auditory) nor different ERP correlates as a function of task-relevance (explicit/implicit task induction) were found. The implications of our results for Italian language are explained.     

Partial Knowledge of Word Meanings: Thematic and Taxonomic Representations

The type of information (taxonomic or thematic) available at different levels of knowledge was investigated. Following extensive norming to identify taxonomic and thematic associates of low-frequency nouns, participants determined if taxonomic or thematic associates were meaningfully related to target words at three levels of knowledge: target words they correctly defined (known), recognized as familiar (frontier), or mistakenly denied as part of the language (unknown). In another experiment, participants reported which type of relationship (taxonomic or thematic) was preferred. Results indicated that both types of information were available at all levels of knowledge. However, accuracy and preference were greater for taxonomic associates across word levels. A differential increase in available thematic information relative to taxonomic information was found. Implications for the acquisition and representation of word meanings are discussed.     

The effects of noise and gender on children's episodic and semantic memory

The main objectives in the present study were to examine meaningful irrelevant speech and road traffic noise effects on episodic and semantic memory, and to evaluate whether gender differences in memory performance interact with noise. A total of 96 subjects, aged 13-14 years (n = 16 boys and 16 girls in each of three groups), were randomly assigned to a silent or two noise conditions. Noise effects found were restricted to impairments from meaningful irrelevant speech on recognition and cued recall of a text in episodic memory and of word comprehension in semantic memory. The obtained noise effect suggests that the meaning of the speech were processed semantically by the pupils, which reduced their ability to comprehend a text that also involved processing of meaning. Meaningful irrelevant speech was also assumed to cause a poorer access to the knowledge base in semantic memory. Girls outperformed boys in episodic and semantic memory materials, but these differences did not interact with noise.     

A Kripke Semantics for the Logic of Gelfand Quantales

Gelfand quantales are complete unital quantales with an involution, *, satisfying the property that for any element a, if a b a for all b, then a a* a = a. A Hilbert-style axiom system is given for a propositional logic, called Gelfand Logic, which is sound and complete with respect to Gelfand quantales. A Kripke semantics is presented for which the soundness and completeness of Gelfand logic is shown. The completeness theorem relies on a Stone style representation theorem for complete lattices. A Rasiowa/Sikorski style semantic tableau system is also presented with the property that if all branches of a tableau are closed, then the formula in question is a theorem of Gelfand Logic. An open branch in a completed tableaux guarantees the existence of an Kripke model in which the formula is not valid; hence it is not a theorem of Gelfand Logic.     

What the Liar Taught Achilles

Zeno's paradoxes of motion and the semantic paradoxes of the Liar have long been thought to have metaphorical affinities. There are, in fact, isomorphisms between variations of Zeno's paradoxes and variations of the Liar paradox in infinite-valued logic. Representing these paradoxes in dynamical systems theory reveals fractal images and provides other geometric ways of visualizing and conceptualizing the paradoxes.     

Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

语义信息在大小数量表征中的作用

本研究采用注意瞬脱实验范式探讨了语义信息在数量表征中的作用。结果发现：（1）在双任务方式中,字母辨认任务对大数（5及以上）的辨认产生干扰,但不影响小数（4及以下）的辨认绩效;（2）数量表征在视野上出现差异性,表现为在小数辨认时,左侧视野呈现绩效高于右侧;大数辨认正好相反,即右侧视野呈现高于左侧。结果表明,语义信息在表征小数和大数中的作用不同：小数的表征无需语言参与;而大数则更多地涉及语义信息,可能需语音回路中无声复述机制的参与。