预防为主——防止禽流感的决策

对传染病的处理,根据几千年历史的共视,近半个世纪的科学进步,传染病的变迁,特别是今年突发传染病的暴发;以及传染病本身的三个特点即病原、传播途径及易感者等,预防为主应该是首要决策。目前引起全球震惊的禽流感,由于病原易变,同时野禽感染导致污染源不好控制,病禽感染人的病死率竟高达50%。从病原、病源及治疗方面都很棘手,未知数不少,治疗缺少现成的经验。因此防禽流感、人流感及治疗方面均要掌握预防为主的决策主体,无病有防,有病早发现,早治疗,既防播散又防加重病情,还要防止不合理施治造成不良反应及二重感染。     

多备择决策的联结网络模型

关于选择偏好可变性的心理机制,新联结主义框架下的联结网络模型强调决策是动态的随机的过程.其中,多备择决策场理论强调由心理场距离决定水平抑制强度的线性关系,渗漏竞争累积模型强调主观价值评价过程中非线性的规避损失偏向.     

When and how do differences matter? An exploration of perceived similarity in teams

In this paper, we directly assess perceived similarity—the degree to which members view themselves as having few differences—because we want to understand when teams notice diversity on various member characteristics and how they interpret it. Our results indicate social category diversity was related to initial estimates of both perceived social category similarity (SCS) and perceived work style similarity (WSS). And, whereas perceived SCS did not change over time, perceived WSS decreased significantly over the period of our study. We suggest this change in perceived WSS can be explained by an information-processing/decision-making framework. We found informational diversity was positively related to conflict in teams, and in turn conflict was negatively related to subsequent estimates of perceived WSS. However, informational diversity was positively related to information sharing in teams, which in turn was positively related to subsequent estimates of perceived WSS. Finally, these updated estimates of perceived WSS affected subgroup formation and team process effectiveness. We discuss how our research explores the subjective experience of diversity by team members, provides a dynamic view of the relationship between diversity and team outcomes, and informs emerging theory about the activation of faultlines in teams.     

Collective estimation: Accuracy,expertise, and extroversion as sources of intra-group influence

Although estimations typically possess correct answers, these answers may be difficult to demonstrate to others. However, providing external information may increase their demonstrability. In this experiment, individuals (N = 60) and 6-person groups (N = 360) generated estimations with or without frames of reference. We hypothesized that estimations involving frames of reference would be best fit by models predicting intra-group influence based on the accuracy of alternatives or of members in general. Conversely, we hypothesized that estimations not involving frames of reference would be best fit by models predicting influence based on member extroversion or proposal centrality. Results indicate that groups outperformed individuals and that estimations generated in the presence of frames of reference were superior to those generated in their absence. Accuracy and expertise schemes provided the best fit when frames of reference were provided, whereas an extroversion scheme provided the best fit when they were not.     

Continuity in adolescent career preparation and its effects on adjustment

Career preparation represents a major developmental task of adolescence, which has not received sufficient attention in empirical research on career development. Thus, this study was designed to examine the structure, continuity, and change in adolescent career preparation and its relationships with adjustment. The data were collected from a diverse sample of 389 adolescents on four occasions beginning in Grade 11 in high school and ending 6 months after high school graduation. Using Structural Equations modeling, a four-wave, developmental model of adolescent career preparation indicated by career decidedness, planning, and confidence was shown to fit the empirical data very well. Career preparation was characterized by continuity and a consistent pattern of positive concurrent and prospective associations with various indicators of adjustment. The results of the study provide empirical support for the theoretical propositions about the adaptive role of adolescent career preparation, particularly in terms of its contribution to psychological well-being and social integration.     

Emotionally controlled decision-making and a gene variant related to serotonin synthesis in women with borderline personality disorder

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was used to examine (i) social decision-making in women with borderline personality disorder (BPD), and (ii) the relationship between impaired decision-making and the tryptophan hydroxylase-1 (TPH-1) gene, involved in serotonin synthesis. Forty-two women with BPD and a history of suicide attempts were genotyped, and the frequency of a TPH-1 haplotype previously uniquely associated with BPD was calculated. The BPD group scored significantly lower than a control group in the IGT. Furthermore, the TPH-1 haplotype displayed a significantly higher frequency in BPD participants with impaired decision making, compared to BPD participants with normal scores. These findings suggest that impaired decision-making as determined by the IGT is a feature of BPD and may be (i) associated with serotonin dysfunction, and (ii) possibly relevant for suicidal behavior.     

自身得失对朋友博弈结果评价的影响：来自ERPs的证据

本研究通过经典的金钱博弈任务, 以FRN和P300为反应指标, 探讨了自身获益或损失对朋友结果评价分别会产生何种影响, 以及这种影响模式是如何受到个体自我建构方式调节的。结果发现, 在自身获益条件下, 观看朋友损益之间的FRN和P300差异不再存在; 在自身损失条件下, 虽然观看朋友输赢之间的P300差异消失了, 但FRN差异依然显著。不仅如此, 无论自身得失, 独立型自我建构启动组在观看朋友损益上的FRN差异均不再显著, 但在自身获益后看到朋友损失能激发更强的P300波幅。本研究结果表明：(1) 对朋友的结果评价模式并非固定不变, 而是会随个体自身所处得失境遇的不同而有所区别; (2) 相对于互依型自我建构启动组, 独立型自我建构启动组在面对朋友的得失时表现得更为冷漠并更具竞争性。     

拖延行为的发展认知机制及神经基础

拖延是指尽管预见到拖延会带来不利后果, 人们仍自愿推迟开始或完成某一计划好的任务。研究表明, 不同文化背景下有15%~20%的成年人存在慢性拖延, 超过70%的学生承认自己存在学业拖延, 部分学生还会形成特质性拖延。严重的拖延不仅影响人们的学业、工作和生活, 甚至还会危害到人们的身心健康。鉴于目前对于拖延产生的核心机制、形成的关键期以及发展认知神经机制还不是很清楚, 本项目拟从拖延的时间决策理论出发, 首先系统探明拖延决策的核心机制, 尤其是远期价值评估、延迟折扣和自我控制能力等在拖延决策过程中的认知加工机制和神经基础; 其次结合行为-环境变量-脑的多模态数据, 从发展角度探究拖延形成的关键期(敏感期)、影响因素以及发展认知神经机制; 最后从行为干预和脑的可塑性角度出发, 试图制定各关键年龄阶段拖延预防与干预的临床方案。本研究的开展对于把握拖延形成的认知机制、神经基础及其发展规律具有重要的科学价值, 对于拖延行为的预防和干预也具有直接的现实意义。     

病人临终决策中的自主问题辨析

自主在医学伦理学中是一个重要的概念。在临终决策中,必须对病人自主从主体自主和行为自主两个维度加以区分,并强调缺乏内外部约束的重要性,尽管内部约束对病人自主影响巨大,但它并不会破坏临终决策的行为自主。在回顾两种反对将行为自主作为理解临终决策手段的意见基础上,应当实现行为自主的标准从完全自主向充分自主的转变,充分自主的优势在于它对各种医疗环境和背景条件所表现出的适应性。根据这一标准,诸如临终病人的死亡选择并不需要完全自主,充分自主即可。

     

直觉思维在麻醉临床决策中的应用

围手术期麻醉医师面临问题的复杂性、动态性和模糊性,要求其在具备良好逻辑思维能力的同时,还要学会应用直觉思维来进行麻醉危机管理。通过决策判断的双加工理论模型探讨说明直觉思维在临床麻醉决策中的可应用性,并给出麻醉医师直觉思维的培养途径,提高麻醉医师的思考能力,增加应急处理课程和临床训练,重视临床经验的学习,营造良好的教学氛围。为了在围手术期更好地保证患者的安全,麻醉医师应重视直觉思维在临床麻醉决策中的应用。