Emergence,Story, and the Challenge of Positive Scenarios

This article is divided into three parts. The first part describes the paradox of positive scenarios: they are much harder to write than negative scenarios. The second part describes the logic of emergent systems whose properties are neither reducible to nor predictable from the properties of their component parts. The third part shows how the concept of emergence can be used to lend plausibility to those optimistic scenarios that might otherwise be rejected as mere wishful thinking.     

Central Asia as the economic and geopolitical tension nexus: Some implications for the world futures

During the last millennium the world economic and geopolitical conflicts were to a great extent connected: different crises in the World System's evolution stimulated geopolitical shifts and vice versa. This article argues that in the 15th century different geopolitical events and conflicts in Central Asia initiated the fall of the previous World System and the rise of the new one. This transformation resulted in the fall of overland and river trade routes, including the Great Silk Route, which passed through Central Asia. World trade shifted to sea and ocean routes, and European countries became the center of the new World System. Now, in the beginning of the 21st century a new transformation of the World System is underway. The center of economic and political development is migrating gradually to the East: this is why the geopolitical role of the Central Asian states is increasing. Central Asian states are a very important part of the New Silk Route; this route is to connect Eastern Asia with Europe and the Middle East. The United States, China, Russia, and other states are ardently competing to control the New Silk Route. Hence, different geopolitical, social, and military conflicts are probable in Central Asia. So economic and political integration in Eurasia between Russia, China, the United States and Central Asian states is very important for the geopolitical stabilization of the region. The article evaluates the main scenarios of geopolitical changes in Central Asia.     

抑郁在青少年核心自我评价与自杀意念间的中介作用:基于Bootstrap法和MCMC法的实证研究

考察抑郁在青少年核心自我评价与自杀意念间的中介作用。对502名高中生进行量表测评。通过偏差校正的Bootstrap法和有先验信息的MCMC法求出中介效应值的95%置信区间分别为[-.030,-.011]和[-.024,-.014],提示抑郁的中介效应显著。效应量k2、R2med分别为.124、.104,偏差校正的Bootstrap法抽样5000次后,构建的效应量的95%置信区间分别为[.070,.178]、[.063,.156],两种指标共同验证效应量为中等。研究结果说明抑郁在核心自我评价与自杀意念间起部分中介作用,效应量中等。     

Stimulus type and the list strength paradigm

In recognition memory, increasing the strength of studied items does not reduce performance on other items, an effect dubbed the null list strength effect (LSE). While this finding has been replicated many times, it has rarely been tested using stimuli other than single words. Kinnell and Dennis (2012 Kinnell, A., & Dennis, S. (2012). The role of stimulus type in list length effects in recognition memory. Memory & Cognition, 40, 311–325. doi: 10.3758/s13421-011-0164-2[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) recently tested for the presence of list length effects using non-word stimulus classes while controlling for the confounds that are present in list length designs. Small list length effects were found for fractal and face images. We adopted the same paradigm and stimuli used by Kinnell and Dennis to test whether these stimuli would be susceptible to list strength effects as well. We found significant LSEs for fractal images, but null LSEs for face images and natural scene photographs. Stimuli other than words do appear to be susceptible to list strength effects, but these effects are small and restricted to particular stimulus classes, as is the case in list length designs. Models of memory may be able to address differences between these stimulus classes by attributing differences in representational overlap between the stimulus classes.     

被动性社交网站使用与初中生抑郁的关系：链式中介效应分析

为探讨被动性社交网站使用、冗思、核心自我评价与初中生抑郁的关系,本研究采用被动性社交网站使用问卷、冗思问卷、核心自我评价问卷以及流调中心用抑郁量表对673名初中生进行调查研究。结果显示：（1）被动性社交网站使用与冗思和抑郁均呈显著正相关,而与核心自我评价呈显著负相关;核心自我评价与冗思、抑郁呈显著负相关;冗思与抑郁呈显著正相关;（2）被动性社交网站使用不仅对初中生抑郁具有显著的直接预测作用,而且能够通过三种间接效应对抑郁产生影响,即核心自我评价的单独中介作用、冗思的单独中介作用以及二者的链式中介作用。     

Infants’ perception of goal-directed actions: A multi-lab replication reveals that infants anticipate paths and not goals

Influential developmental theories claim that infants rely on goals when visually anticipating actions. A widely noticed study suggested that 11-month-olds anticipate that a hand continues to grasp the same object even when it swapped position with another object (Cannon, E., & Woodward, A. L. (2012). Infants generate goal-based action predictions. Developmental Science, 15, 292–298.). Yet, other studies found such flexible goal-directed anticipations only from later ages on. Given the theoretical relevance of this phenomenon and given these contradicting findings, the current work investigated in two different studies and labs, whether infants indeed flexibly anticipate an action goal. Study 1 (N = 144) investigated by means of five experiments, under which circumstances (e.g., animated agent, human agent) 12-month-olds show flexible goal anticipation abilities. Study 2 (N = 104) presented 11-, 32-month-olds and adults both a human grasping action as well as a non-human action. In none of the experiments did infants flexibly anticipate the action based on the goal, but rather on the movement path, irrespective of the type of agent. Although one experiment contained a direct replication of Cannon and Woodward (2012), we were not able to replicate their findings. Overall our work challenges the view that infants are able to flexibly anticipate action goals from early on, but rather rely on movement patterns when processing other’s actions.     

付出-回馈工作压力模型：西方国家十年来研究的回顾与评析

付出&;#8722;回馈工作压力模型(Effort-Reward Imbalance, ERI)以社会交换理论为视角, 从付出、回馈、过度投入三个方面探讨了工作压力的形成机制和作用机理。在对近十几年来有关ERI模型实证研究文献的梳理和分析的基础上, 系统地介绍ERI模型的理论基础、模型的适用性验证、相关变量探索及模型拓展等, 发现目前的ERI模型具有较好的解释力和适用性, 但是模型的中间变量及交互假设有待进一步探索, 付出、回报失衡值的计算方法尚需进一步优化。     

普通高校辅导员的职业认同与工作满意度的关系

研究探讨了普通高校辅导员的工作压力、核心自我评价、职业认同和工作满意度的关系。研究发现:(1)辅导员的工作压力、职业认同和工作满意度与专业教师存在差异;(2)工作压力、核心自我评价、职业认同影响着辅导员的工作满意度;(3)核心自我评价调节着工作压力和职业认同的关系;工作压力经由职业认同影响着工作满意度,且这一中介效应受到核心自我评价的调节作用。     

管理者核心自我评价对下属组织公民行为的影响：道德式领导和集体主义导向的作用

采用配对问卷调查法, 以150位管理者和464位下属为研究对象, 考察了管理者核心自我评价对下属组织指向和人际指向公民行为的影响以及道德式领导和下属集体主义导向在其中的作用。跨层次分析结果表明：管理者核心自我评价对下属公民行为有显著正向影响; 道德式领导在管理者核心自我评价与下属公民行为关系中有中介作用; 下属集体主义导向在道德式领导与公民行为关系中具有调节作用, 表现为道德式领导对公民行为的正向影响对高集体主义导向的员工来说更明显。文章揭示了管理者核心自我评价对下属公民行为的影响效果、内在机制和作用条件, 也在一定程度上支持了领导有效性研究的特质-行为整合视角模型。     

IAT范式下自尊内隐性的再证明

该研究用IAT测量了被试的内隐自尊,并通过操纵被试在不同的认知负荷条件下进行外显自我评价来考察外显自我评价和内隐自尊之间的关系。得到的结论是,在低认知负荷条件下进行外显自我评价时,外显自我评价和内隐自尊没有表现出一致性;在高认知负荷条件下进行外显自我评价时,外显自我评价和内隐自尊表现出一致性。该研究在IAT范式下表明了内隐自尊和外显自尊的分离,内隐自尊具有无意识性和自动化的特点。