Motivated reasoning in the prediction of sports outcomes and the belief in the “hot hand”

The present paper explores the role of motivation to observe a certain outcome in people’s predictions, causal attributions, and beliefs about a streak of binary outcomes (basketball scoring shots). In two studies we found that positive streaks (points scored by the participants’ favourite team) lead participants to predict the streak’s continuation (belief in the hot hand), but negative streaks lead to predictions of its end (gambler’s fallacy). More importantly, these wishful predictions are supported by strategic attributions and beliefs about how and why a streak might unfold. Results suggest that the effect of motivation on predictions is mediated by a serial path via causal attributions to the teams at play and belief in the hot hand.     

重量对元认知监控的无意识影响

采用结构知识归因的方法,以学习判断和项目优先选择作为元认知监测和控制的指标,考察重量对元认知监控的影响是否是无意识的。被试学习粘贴在不同重量纸盒上的词对,进行学习判断(实验1)或项目选择(实验2),并报告其判断或选择的依据。结果:(1)重量影响学习判断和项目优先选择,相对于轻纸盒,被试给予重纸盒上的词对更高的JOL并优先选择重纸盒上的词对进行学习;(2)重量对学习判断的影响只发生在判断依据为猜测的情况下,重量对项目优先选择的影响只发生在判断依据为猜测和直觉的情况下。上述结果支持了元认知的具身性,并提示重量对元认知监控的影响可能是无意识的。     

Parents' adjustment to late abortion,stillbirth or infant death: the role of causal attributions

The aim of the present study was to explore the attributional processes and the effect of various causal attributions on post-traumatic symptomatology among 110 parents who had lost an infant. The attributional processes were examined with longitudinal data collected over 12 months. One to four weeks post-loss, approximately half of the parents reported that they were never or rarely concerned with attributing responsibility for their baby's death. The importance of attributing responsibility was associated with several post-traumatic symptoms, as was searching for meaning in the death. Attributions to oneself, others, or God were positively and significantly associated with numerous post-traumatic symptoms. The results are discussed with reference to other studies dealing with the effect of attributions on subsequent adjustment among victims of trauma.     

Getting off the Wheel

Roderick Chisholm argues that in giving an account of knowledge, we must either begin with an account of what knowledge is, and proceed on that basis to identify the particular things that we know, or else start with instances of knowledge, and proceed on that basis to formulate a definition of knowledge. Either approach begs the question against the other. This is the epistemic wheel. This article responds to Chisholm's challenge. It begins with cases of knowledge attribution and builds its account from there, identifying those features that we take to be present in the cases where we have attributed knowledge and those features that seem important when we want to withhold an attribution of knowledge. The proposal does not beg the question against either particularists or methodists; it takes the best features of each view, without beginning with either, and thereby removes us from the wheel.     

How Abusive Supervisors Influence Employees’ Voice and Silence: The Effects of Interactional Justice and Organizational Attribution

In this research we investigated the influence of abusive supervision on employees’ prosocial voice and silence, as well as clarified the roles of interactional justice (as a mediator) and organizational attribution (as a moderator). Moreover, we examined a mediated moderating model stipulating that interactional justice mediated the moderating effect of organizational attribution on the focal relationship. A scenario experiment was employed in Study 1, and after analyzing data from 196 employees, we found that abusive supervision influenced employees’ prosocial voice and silence via interactional justice. In Study 2, data were collected from 379 employees in two waves separated by 1 week. The results not only replicated the findings of Study 1 but also indicated that organizational attribution buffered the abusive supervision-voice and silence relationship, and that interactional justice mediated this moderating effect.     

Agreeableness and brain activity during emotion attribution decisions

Within the Big 5 model of personality, Agreeableness is a trait-dimension associated with the tendency to behave prosocially; highly agreeable people tend to be highly cooperative and altruistic. This study was designed to test for associations between Agreeableness and the way people decide the cause of another person’s emotional reaction (emotion attribution). Behavioral and neuroimaging (fMRI) data were collected while participants (n = 72) performed an emotional attribution task. During the emotion attribution task, participants decided which of two social–emotional scenes they believed caused another person’s emotional reaction. Converging evidence indicated that highly agreeable people tend to make emotional attribution decisions more quickly and exhibit greater temporoparietal junction activity during emotion attribution decisions, compared to low agreeable people.     

Adulthood Social Class and Union Interest: A First Test of a Theoretical Model

A serial mediation model of union interest was tested. Based on theoretical notes provided by Mellor and Golay (in press), adulthood social class was positioned as a predictor of willingness to join a labor union, with success/failure attributions at work and willingness to share work goals positioned as intervening variables. Data from U.S. nonunion employees (N = 560) suggested full mediation after effects were adjusted for childhood social class. In sequence, adulthood social class predicted success/failure attributions at work, success/failure attributions at work predicted willingness to share work goals, and willingness to share work goals predicted willingness to join. Implications for socioeconomic status (SES) research and union expansion are discussed.     

Psychological predictors for health-related quality of life and disability in persons with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)

Objective: Individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exhibit low physical and mental health-related quality of life (HRQL) and high susceptibility to disability. We investigated the influence of psychological factors on HRQL and disability in COPD individuals recruited from the general population. In line with Leventhal’s common sense model, we expected psychological factors to be associated with HRQL and disability even after controlling for medical status.

Methods: Individuals with COPD (n = 502; 59.7 years old; GOLD grades were I: 3%, II: 17%, III: 34%, IV: 46%) were assessed through an online survey administered via COPD patient organisations in Germany. Individuals filled in the Short Form Health Survey (SF-12), COPD Assessment Test, Patient Health Questionnaire (modules: GAD-2, PHQ-15, PHQ-9), Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire, a questionnaire that assesses causal illness attributions, and the internal illness-related locus of control scale of the ‘KKG questionnaire for the assessment of control beliefs about illness and health’. Multiple linear regressions were calculated.

Results: The investigated factors explained high variances (disability = 56%, physical HRQL = 28%, mental HRQL = 63%, p ≤ .001). Better mental health, more optimistic illness perceptions, attribution to psychological causes, and stronger internal locus of control were associated with lower disability and better HRQL. Comorbid somatic symptoms contributed to high disability and low quality of life.

Conclusion: Psychological factors, such as illness perception, attribution and internal locus of control, were associated with disability and HRQL. These factors should be considered when designing treatments for individuals with COPD, and adequate interventions should be provided to enhance illness understanding and self-management skills.     

Outcome producing potential influences twelve-month-olds’ interpretation of a novel action as goal-directed

Learning about a novel, goal-directed action is a complex process. It requires identifying the outcome of the action and linking the action to its outcome for later use in new situations to predict the action or to anticipate its outcome. We investigated the hypothesis that linking a novel action to a salient change in the environment is critical for infants to assign a goal to the novel action. We report a study in which we show that 12-month-old infants, who were provided with prior experience with a novel action accompanied with a salient visible outcome in one context, can interpret the same action as goal-directed even in the absence of the outcome in another context. Our control condition shows that prior experience with the action, but without the salient effect, does not lead to goal-directed interpretation of the novel action. We also found that, for the case of 9-month-olds infants, prior experience with the outcome producing potential of the novel action does not facilitate a goal-directed interpretation of the action. However, this failure was possibly due to difficulties with generalizing the learnt association to another context rather than with linking the action to its outcome.