Adaptation, teleology, and selection by consequences

This paper presents and defends the view that reinforcement and natural selection are selection processes, that selection processes are neither mechanistic nor teleological, and that mentalistic and vitalistic processes are teleological but not mechanistic. The differences between these types of processes are described and used in discussing the conceptual and methodological significance of “selection type theories” and B. F. Skinner's radical behaviorist view that “operant behavior is the field of intention, purpose, and expectation. It deals with that field precisely as the theory of evolution has dealt with another kind of purpose” (1986, p. 716). The antimentalism of radical behaviorism emerges as a post-Darwinian extension of Francis Bacon's (and Galileo's) influential view that “[the introduction of final causes] rather corrupts than advances the sciences” (Bacon, 1905, p. 302).     

不确定性问题解决策略研究及存在的问题分析

通过对不确定性问题解决及认知策略方面颇有代表性的研究的回顾、分析了该领域的研究特点、现状及存在的问题。     

EVOLUTION IN THERMODYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE: A HISTORICAL AND PHILOSOPHICAL ANGLE

Abstract. The recently suggested reformulation of Darwinian evolutionary theory, based on the thermodynamics of self-organizing processes, has strong philosophical implications. My claim is that the main philosophical merit of the thermodynamic approach, made especially clear in J.S. Wicken's work, is its insistence on the law-governed, continuous nature of evolution. I attempt to substantiate this claim following a historical analysis of beginning-of-the-century ideas on evolution and matter-life relationship, in particular, the fitness-of-the-environment-for-life theory of the Harvard physiologist L.J. Henderson. In addition, I point to an epistemological common ground underlying the studies of the “thermodynamics school” and other currently active research groups focusing on the emergence and evolution of biological organization.     

A general linear model for estimating effect size in the presence of publication bias

When the process of publication favors studies with smallp-values, and hence large effect estimates, combined estimates from many studies may be biased. This paper describes a model for estimation of effect size when there is selection based on one-tailedp-values. The model employs the method of maximum likelihood in the context of a mixed (fixed and random) effects general linear model for effect sizes. It offers a test for the presence of publication bias, and corrected estimates of the parameters of the linear model for effect magnitude. The model is illustrated using a well-known data set on the benefits of psychotherapy.Authors' note: The contributions of the authors are considered equal, and the order of authorship was chosen to be reverse-alphabetical.     

Identification of inconsistent variates in factor analysis

When some of observed variates do not conform to the model under consideration, they will have a serious effect on the results of statistical analysis. In factor analysis the model with inconsistent variates may result in improper solutions. In this article a useful method for identifying a variate as inconsistent is proposed in factor analysis. The procedure is based on the likelihood principle. Several statistical properties such as the effect of misspecified hypotheses, the problem of multiple comparisons, and robustness to violation of distributional assumptions are investigated. The procedure is illustrated by some examples.     

A compensatory approach to optimal selection with mastery scores

A Bayesian approach for simultaneous optimization of test-based decisions is presented using the example of a selection decision for a treatment followed by a mastery decision. A distinction is made between weak and strong rules where, as opposed to strong rules, weak rules use prior test scores as collateral data. Conditions for monotonicity of optimal weak and strong rules are presented. It is shown that under mild conditions on the test score distributions and utility functions, weak rules are always compensatory by nature. The authors are indebted to Wilbert Kallenberg for his valuable comments and to Jan Gulmans for providing the data for the empirical example. The names of the authors are alphabetical; they are equally responsible for the contents of this paper.     

目标设置过程的理性特征分析

本文运用个案研究方法 ,从人类理性的角度分析了企业在不同的生产经营条件下的目标设置方式 ,发现不确定性和目标难度对管理者的目标设置过程有很大的影响。在确定的 ,且任务较容易的情况下 ,目标设置是以一种与理性期望模型相一致的方式进行的 ,而在高度不确定的条件下 ,管理者则倾向于采用渐进适应的模式设置目标。对管理者的经营活动作进一步深入的分析发现 ,在高难度的任务目标情景中 ,决策者更多地从战略的层次 ,而不是从具体的层次上寻求实现目标的途径 ,从而提出了目标难度与实绩的“策略搜索层次”假设     

Should a criminal receive a heart transplant? Medical Justice vs. Societal Justice

Should the nation provide expensive care and scarce organs to convicted felons? We distinguish between two fields of justice: Medical Justice and Societal Justice. Although there is general acceptance within the medical profession that physicians may distribute limited treatments based solely on potential medical benefits without regard to nonmedical factors, that does not mean that society cannot impose limits based on societal factors. If a society considers the convicted felon to be a full member, then that person would be entitled to at least a “decent minimum” level of care — which might include access to scarce life-saving organs. However, if criminals forfeit their entitlement to the same level of medical care afforded to all members of society, they still would be entitled to a kind of “rudimentary decent minimum” granted to all persons on simple humanitarian grounds. Almost certainly this entitlement would not include access to organ transplants.     

The linear utility model for optimal selection

A linear utility model is introduced for optimal selection when several subpopulations of applicants are to be distinguished. Using this model, procedures are described for obtaining optimal cutting scores in subpopulations in quota-free as well as quota-restricted selection situations. The cutting scores are optimal in the sense that they maximize the overall expected utility of the selection process. The procedures are demonstrated with empirical data.     

初级军官心理选拔的预测性

目的：通过建立院校学员胜任特征及初级军官评价模型,探讨初级军官心理选拔检测系统的预测性。方法：某军校340名男性本科学员入校时完成初级军官心理选拔检测,毕业前进行院校胜任特征评价,对162名学员毕业后1~5年进行部队工作表现追踪评价。结果：中国MBTI-G人格类型测验对院校学员管理能力、影响力、约束力、口头表达、军人气质、人际关系等有较好的预测性,预测符合率72.13%;中国军人明尼苏达个性调查表6项精神障碍维度对情绪稳定性有较好的预测,预测符合率71.90%;院校学员一般能力倾向测验对学业成绩、文字表达、口头表达、人际关系和决策能力等胜任特征也有一定的预测性,预测符合率66.70%;三项测验院校胜任特征总预测符合率达81.70%,部队胜任特征总预测符合率76~87%。结论：为我军初级军官心理选拔提供了实用工具,为提高心理选拔预测准确性提供了科学依据