Are investors really willing to agree to disagree? An experimental investigation of how disagreement and attention to disagreement affect trading behavior

Using a series of laboratory markets, this paper provides evidence that a willingness to engage in speculative trade is largely driven by a failure of traders to account for information about value implicit in other traders’ actions and that this behavior arises because traders construct myopic mental models that ignore the perspective of other traders. In a baseline set of markets, where traders are prompted to estimate fundamental value but are not overtly prompted to consider disagreement, I find that traders are generally insensitive to adverse selection and readily engage in suboptimal, speculative trade. Moreover, this effect does not decline across trials suggesting that market feedback alone is unlikely to correct traders’ behavior. In contrast, when traders are prompted to assess disagreement over asset values or when they trade in more transparent markets, they appear less willing to “agree to disagree.” These results provide insight into why investors depart from rational trading strategies and how investor psychology will influence trading behavior.     

Recruiters’ Inferences of Applicant Personality Based on Resume Screening: Do Paper People have a Personality?

Research shows recruiters infer dispositional characteristics from job applicants’ resumes and use these inferences in evaluating applicants’ employability. However, the reliability and validity of these inferences have not been empirically tested. Using data collected from 244 recruiters, we found low levels of estimated interrater reliability when they reviewed entry-level applicants’ resumes and made inferences regarding applicants’ personality traits. Moreover, when recruiters’ inferences of applicant personality were correlated with applicants’ actual Big Five personality scores, results indicated that recruiters’ inferences lacked validity, with the possible exceptions of extraversion and openness to experience. Finally, despite being largely unreliable and invalid, recruiters’ inferences of applicants’ extraversion, openness to experience, and conscientiousness predicted the recruiters’ subsequent employability assessments of the applicants.     

无意识元认知调控下的策略转换

通过两位数乘法算式答案判别任务研究无意识元认知调控下策略转换的的认知加工特征。整个算式答案判别任务分为两种策略使用情境：一种为只可以使用尾数策略的任务情境;另一种为既可以使用尾数策略,又可以使用奇偶策略的任务情境。实验结果表明：1）无意识元认知具有高选择性、高效性和高潜力,能在策略使用情境转变之后,快速察觉并选择使用更为简单、高效的奇偶策略;2）尾数策略使用的强大思维定势阻止奇偶策略的意识化,致使绝大多数被试未能发现任务情境的变化而在内隐状态下使用了奇偶策略;3）策略在内隐或外显状态下使用具有同等效力,策略内隐使用具有高效性和高潜力。     

Item difficulty parameter estimation using the idea of the graded response model and computerized adaptive testing

Abstract:  In test operations using IRT (item response theory), items are included in a test before being used to rate subjects and the response data is used to estimate their item parameters. However, this method of test operation may lead to item content leakage and an adequate test operation can become difficult. To address this problem, Ozaki and Toyoda (2005, 2006 ) developed item difficulty parameter estimation methods that use paired comparison data from the perspective of the difficulty of items as judged by raters familiar with the field. In the present paper, an improved method of item difficulty parameter estimation is developed. In this new method, an item for which the difficulty parameter is to be estimated is compared with multiple items simultaneously, from the perspective of their difficulty. This is not a one-to-one comparison but a one-to-many comparison. In the comparisons, raters are informed that items selected from an item pool are ordered according to difficulty. The order will provide insight to improve the accuracy of judgment.     

A dual-process account of female facial attractiveness preferences: Sexual and nonsexual routes

The current study conceptualizes facial attractiveness as a dual-process judgment, combining sexual and aesthetic value. We hypothesized that holistic face processing is more integral to perceiving aesthetic preference and feature-based processing is more integral to sexual preference. In order to manipulate holistic versus feature-based processing, we used a variation of the composite face paradigm. Previous work indicates that slightly shifting the top from the bottom half of a face disrupts holistic processing and enhances feature-based processing. In the present study, while nonsexual judgments best explained facial attraction in whole-face images, a reversal occurred for split-face images such that sexual judgments best explained facial attraction, but only for mate-relevant faces (i.e., other-sex). These findings indicate that disrupting holistic processing can decouple sexual from nonsexual judgments of facial attraction, thereby establishing the presence of a dual-process.     

Global Model Analysis of Cognitive Variability

Residual fluctuations produced in typical experimental methodologies are examined as correlated noises. The effective range of the correlations was assessed by determining whether the decay over look-back time is better described as a power law or exponential. Both of these decay laws contain free parameters and it is argued that it is not possible to distinguish their models on the basis of simple measures of goodness-of-fit. Global analyses that evaluate models on the basis of how well they generalize are conducted. The models are examined in terms of three constructs that all bear on generalization: cross-validity, flexibility, and representativeness. Quantitative assessment of a large ensemble of data suggests that the correlations decay over time as a power law. The conclusion is that human residual fluctuation is a correlated fractal.     

多级评分题计算机自适应测验选题策略比较

研究比较了多级评分题计算机化自适应测验五种选题策略的优劣。应用的IRT模型是Samejima的等级反应模型。参加比较的选题策略有难度均值与能力匹配法、难度中值与能力匹配法、信息量最大法和两种A分层法。比较指标采用了能力估计值返回真值偏差、能力估计标准差、人均用题数和试题调用次数标准差四个。研究采用蒙特卡罗模拟法,结果显示每种方法各有优劣,在分层得当情况下,A分层法(中)的综合效果最佳     

初级军官心理选拔的预测性

目的：通过建立院校学员胜任特征及初级军官评价模型,探讨初级军官心理选拔检测系统的预测性。方法：某军校340名男性本科学员入校时完成初级军官心理选拔检测,毕业前进行院校胜任特征评价,对162名学员毕业后1~5年进行部队工作表现追踪评价。结果：中国MBTI-G人格类型测验对院校学员管理能力、影响力、约束力、口头表达、军人气质、人际关系等有较好的预测性,预测符合率72.13%;中国军人明尼苏达个性调查表6项精神障碍维度对情绪稳定性有较好的预测,预测符合率71.90%;院校学员一般能力倾向测验对学业成绩、文字表达、口头表达、人际关系和决策能力等胜任特征也有一定的预测性,预测符合率66.70%;三项测验院校胜任特征总预测符合率达81.70%,部队胜任特征总预测符合率76~87%。结论：为我军初级军官心理选拔提供了实用工具,为提高心理选拔预测准确性提供了科学依据     

职业选拔情境下人格测验作假研究

在职业选拔情境下被试很容易对人格测验作假,从而制约了人格测验在企业中的应用。许多研究者在努力解决作假问题,分别就应聘者是否会作假,作假给人格测验带来的负面影响、应聘者如何作假以及如果应对作假等问题进行了深入的探讨。经过几十年的发展,该研究领域已经形成了包括实验诱导设计、已知群体设计和量表设计等几种特定的研究范式。研究结果显示,大多数应聘者会作假,但其负面影响并不严重;作假不同于社会称许性反应,它是一种工作称许性反应。目前的几种应对作假的方法尚存在一些问题,其有效性有待提高。总之,人格测验的作假作用明显,其研究难度较大,有待革新性理论和方法的出现     

四卡问题解决中的内容与逻辑分析效应

选取条件概率(P(Q|P))由低到高的四个命题作为四卡问题中的检验规则,探讨了大学生被试对四张卡片的逻辑证明作用的推断能力及其对解决四卡问题的影响。结果发现:(1)不同条件概率的命题之间正确选择P-Q的人数百分比不存在显著差异,命题的条件概率因素对四卡问题的正确解决没有影响。(2)逻辑分析过程对四卡问题的正确解决产生了一定的抑制作用,这可能是因为被试不能从整体上思考四张卡片在命题检验中的逻辑作用的缘故。(3)一些被试即使在逻辑分析过程中表现出知道-Q卡片的证伪作用,仍然倾向于选择卡片Q而非-Q,这一现象再次证实了人类思维的非形式逻辑的一面。