Nonlinear Growth Models as Measurement Models: A Second-Order Growth Curve Model for Measuring Potential

Recent methodological work has highlighted the promise of nonlinear growth models for addressing substantive questions in the behavioral sciences. In this article, we outline a second-order nonlinear growth model in order to measure a critical notion in development and education: potential. Here, potential is conceptualized as having three components—ability, capacity, and availability—where ability is the amount of skill a student is estimated to have at a given timepoint, capacity is the maximum amount of ability a student is predicted to be able to develop asymptotically, and availability is the difference between capacity and ability at any particular timepoint. We argue that single timepoint measures are typically insufficient for discerning information about potential, and we therefore describe a general framework that incorporates a growth model into the measurement model to capture these three components. Then, we provide an illustrative example using the public-use Early Childhood Longitudinal Study–Kindergarten data set using a Michaelis-Menten growth function (reparameterized from its common application in biochemistry) to demonstrate our proposed model as applied to measuring potential within an educational context. The advantage of this approach compared to currently utilized methods is discussed as are future directions and limitations.     

Semantic coherence and fallacies in estimating joint probabilities

In three experiments on joint probability estimation, gist representations were manipulated with analogies, and the suboptimal strategy of ignoring relevant denominators was counteracted with training in using 2 × 2 tables to clarify joint probability estimates. The estimated probabilities of two events, as well as their conjunctive and disjunctive probabilities, were assessed against two benchmarks, logical fallacies and semantic coherence—a constellation of estimates consistent with the relationship among sets. Fuzzy‐trace theory (FTT) predicts that analogies will increase semantic coherence, and a table intervention affecting denominator neglect will both increase semantic coherence and reduce fallacies. In all three experiments, analogies increased semantic coherence. In both experiments training participants to use 2 × 2 tables, such tables reduced fallacies and increased semantic coherence. As the relations among sets in the problem materials progressed in cognitive complexity from identical sets, mutually exclusive sets, and subsets to overlapping sets, fallacies generally increased, and semantic coherence generally decreased. These findings indicate that denominator neglect is pervasive, but that it can be remedied with a straightforward intervention that clarifies relations among sets. Further, intuitive gist‐based probability estimation can be improved through the use of simple analogies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Illusion of confirmation from exposure to another's hypothesis

We examine the influence of exposure to an advisor's hypothesis, in the form of a point estimate of an uncertain quantity, on subsequent point estimates and confidence judgments made by advisees. In three experiments, a group of unexposed advisees produced their own estimates before being presented with that of the advisor, while a group of exposed advisees were presented with the advisor's estimate before making their own. Not surprisingly, exposed advisees deliberately incorporated the information conveyed by the advisor's estimate in producing their own estimates. But the exposure manipulation also had a contaminating influence that shifted what the advisees viewed as their own, independent estimates toward those of the advisor. Seemingly unaware of this influence, exposed advisees were subject to an illusion of confirmation in which they expressed greater confidence in the accuracy of the advisor's estimate than did unexposed advisees. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Foresight and the Seven Dimensions of Experience

How we understand and treat time says a great deal about our worldview. The major global crises we are enmeshed in are largely the result of dominant worldviews that do not correspond sufficiently with the realities of how the cosmos works. Although what humanity has learned through science has some areas of correspondence it does not have the requisite variety to correlate with the complexities unleashed in the Anthropocene. This is clear from the feedback that the world system is giving us in areas of, for example, climate change, species extinction, mental stress, and endemic violence. In this article it is proposed that the resulting deficiency of foresight occurs because our current notions of time and our resulting way of organizing and interpreting our world that follows from that seriously restricts our understanding where it is most needed. This article introduces an alternative view of time as only one of seven dimensions of our lived experience and opens more scope for practical as well as theoretical understanding.     

Finding Cybernetics

At mid-career as a tenured professor of modern literature, I finally found cybernetics. It was a slow-rolling revelation, a protracted unraveling, for it took me quite a while to unwrap cybernetics’ conceptual core from out of the layers of adjacent or covering discourses that had obscured or forgotten their own origins in the fecundity of cybernetic ideas. Heinz von Foerster’s relation to the Whole Earth Catalog and the systems counterculture around CoEvolution Quarterly were instrumental for my subsequent cybernetic development toward the work of Maturana, Varela, and Luhmann on the one hand, and Lovelock and Margulis on the other.     

个体关于加工流畅性的信念对字体大小效应的影响

本研究考察个体关于加工流畅性的信念对学习判断(Judgment of learning, 简称JOL)的影响, 探讨字体大小效应的产生机制。研究通过两个实验分别考察个体关于“字体大小影响加工流畅性” (实验1)以及“加工流畅性影响记忆效果” (实验2)等信念对字体大小效应的影响。结果发现: 1)当人们相信大字体更流畅(实验1)或者越流畅越好记(实验2)时, 他们在大字体项目上的JOL值显著高于小字体项目上的JOL值; 2)当人们相信小字体更流畅(实验1)或者流畅性与记忆无关(实验2)时, 他们在大字体和小字体项目上的JOL值无显著差异, 字体大小效应消失。上述结果表明, 个体关于加工流畅性的信念是字体大小效应产生的重要原因, 是人们进行学习判断的重要线索。     

Towards Multi-positioned Live Supervision in Family Therapy: Combining Treatment and Observation Teams with First- and Second-order Perspectives

This article describes a process of live supervision that has been designed to encourage trainees to experience competing theoretical perspectives. It involves the use of separate T (treatment) and O (observation) teams who conceptualise the same case from two broadly defined theoretical perspectives, variously called first and second order, modern and postmodern, or family systems and social constructionist. The process requires trainees to adopt multiple positions rather than identify with one perspective, and provides a basis for comparing and potentially integrating them. We provide examples of the approach, discuss important contextual issues for supervisors to consider when implementing it, and examine ways of adapting it to a wide range of training contexts.     

Gender Differences in the Self-Assessment of Accuracy on Cognitive Tasks

Generally, self-assessment of accuracy in the cognitive domain produces overconfidence, whereas self-assessment of the accuracy of visual perceptual judgments produces underconfidence. The possible effect of gender differences on these robust findings appears to be underinvestigated. In this paper, I report two studies that take a step toward redressing this shortcoming. In Study 1, a group of young adults (N =185) were presented with a test of General Knowledge and a visual perceptual task. The results indicated the typical over/underconfidence phenomena noted above, but, when analyzed by sex, indicated statistically significant differences; men were more confident than women on both tasks. In Study 2, participants (N =303) with a wider age range completed 4 tests of cognitive ability, which were drawn from the theory of fluid and crystallized intelligence. Results indicated that the tendency for men to express higher levels of confidence than women in the accuracy of their work appears to remain constant across the life-span. These findings are discussed in relation to self-concept and gender stereotyping.     

Verbal probabilities: a question of frame?

Verbal expressions of probability and uncertainty are of two kinds: positive (‘probable’, ‘possible’) and negative (‘not certain’, ‘doubtful’). Choice of term has implications for predictions and decisions. The present studies show that positive phrases are rated to be more optimistic (when the target outcome is positive), and more correct, when the target outcome actually occurs, even in cases where positive and negative phrases are perceived to convey the same probabilities (Experiments 1 and 2). Selection of phrase can be determined by linguistic frame. Positive quantifiers (‘some’, ‘several’) support positive probability phrases, whereas negative quantifiers (‘not all’) suggest negative phrases (Experiment 3). Positive frames induced by numeric frequencies (e.g. the number of students to be admitted) imply positive probability phrases, whereas negative frames (e.g. the number of students to be rejected) call for negative probability phrases (Experiment 4). It is concluded that choice of verbal phrase is based not only on level of probability, but also on situational and linguistic cues. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.