解读不显著结果：基于500个实证研究的量化分析

不显著结果(如, p > 0.05)在心理学研究中十分常见, 且容易被误解为接受零假设的证据, 并可能导致分组匹配研究的错误推断或者忽视被小样本的不显著结果掩盖的真实效应。但国内目前尚无实证研究对不显著结果的普遍性及其解读进行调查。本研究调查500篇中文心理学实证研究, 统计其摘要中出现与不显著结果相关的阴性陈述的频率, 判断并统计基于阴性陈述的推断准确性, 并使用贝叶斯因子对不显著结果中包含t值的研究进行重新评估。结果表明, 36%的摘要提及不显著结果, 共包含236个阴性陈述。其中, 41%的阴性陈述对不显著结果的解读出现偏差(如, 解读为支持了零假设)。对包含t值的研究进行贝叶斯因子分析, 结果显示仅有5.1%的不显著结果可以提供强证据支持零假设(BF₀₁ > 10)。与先前对国际心理学期刊的调查结果相比(32%的摘要包含阴性陈述; 72%的阴性陈述对不显著结果的解读错误), 中文心理学期刊中报告不显著结果的比例更高, 且对不显著结果解读错误的比例更低。但国内研究者仍需进一步加强对不显著结果的认识, 推广适于评估不显著结果的统计方法。     

特质感恩与状态感恩对初中生合作水平的影响

为探究感恩对初中生合作水平的影响,本研究采用追踪调查与实验相结合的方法,通过两个研究分别探究了特质感恩与内在的合作倾向,状态感恩与外在的合作行为之间的关系。结果发现：（1）初中女生的特质感恩、人物取向感恩显著高于男生;初一下的合作倾向显著低于初一上、初二上时期;（2）初中生的特质感恩水平能显著正向预测合作倾向,状态感恩的唤起会增加公共物品困境中的合作行为。     

走进大自然：自然体验及其积极效应

自然体验是指个体通过各种感官感知自然或与源于自然界的刺激互动。学者通常使用问卷测量法、自然指标法或实验操纵法来量化操纵人们的自然体验,发现接触自然可以在心理、生理和行为等方面产生积极效应。且这些积极效应会受到物理环境、个体以及社会因素的影响。未来应突破“城市——自然”二元对立思想并加强积极效应的纵深研究;拓展研究群体;促进相关研究成果的实际应用。     

Being student leaders or ‘ordinary’ students: Children's emotional experiences of relationships with others in a Chinese school

The student leader system is commonly used in Chinese schools. Student leaders are children who are elected by classmates, then assigned by teachers, to be responsible for monitoring classmates' behaviour. Based on the data collected through an intensive ethnographic study in a rural primary boarding school in China in 2016, this article discusses emotional experiences in peer relationships reported by both student leaders and other ‘ordinary’ students, who were not student leaders. The article argues that China's student leader system is likely to create hierarchical relationships between student leaders and ‘ordinary’ students, and exposes ‘ordinary’ students to the potential risk of being exploited by student leaders. The article also argues that because of this student leader system and relevant student evaluation values, student leaders and ‘ordinary’ students all feel stressed when they are building up and maintaining peer relationships, such as friendships, with each other.     

心理因素与学业表现：机器学习分类预测模型

随着高等教育规模的扩大,学业表现不良逐渐成为一个不容忽视的现象,对学业表现不良的学生进行预测并提早给予干预可降低退学率并减少教育资源的损失。由于导致学业表现不良的因素众多且关系复杂,传统的基于相关分析的研究方法很难建立早期预测模型并进行应用。本研究旨在利用机器学习算法,对数据进行挖掘,并建立学业表现预测模型。研究对653名大一新生的心理健康状况、应对方式、人格、内外控倾向和相关人口统计学信息进行了收集,并在一年后采集了其学业成绩,利用随机森林(RF)、K邻近（KNN）、支持向量机（SVM）、决策树（DT）、朴素贝叶斯（NB）等机器学习算法建立了分类模型。结果显示,随机森林算法在识别学业表现不良学生时有最好的表现,其中准确率95.86%, 召回率91.83%,f1分数为93.80%。特征重要性分析显示,前10个对模型有最高贡献度的特征包括：年龄、性别、是否为独生子、内外控倾向、神经质倾向、积极应对倾向、宜人性倾向、一般症状指数、开放性倾向和焦虑水平。为避免过度拟合问题,本研究在一年后收集的166名新生样本中进行了模型验证,结果显示模型在新数据集上有较好的泛化表现,其中f1分数90.90％,准确率92.60％,召回率89.26％。研究提示基于人口统计学和心理测评信息,机器学习算法有助于及早识别学业表现不良学生并为开展早期干预提供启示。     

Comparison of Maternal Perceptions of Preterm and Fullterm Infants

We compared maternal attitudes and feelings in two groups of mother–infant dyads: 25 mothers with preterm newborns (M=30.9 weeks of gestational age) and 25 mothers with fullterm newborns (M=39.7 weeks of gestational age). Both groups were matched for infant sex, age (corrected in preterms) and birth order as well as for maternal age and education. Semi-structured interviews were used to collect data on maternal attitudes and feelings about pregnancy and the first contacts with the newborn. Mothers completed rating scales to indicate the specific behavioural problems they perceived in their infants at 6 weeks and 3 months of (corrected) age. Observations of infant responses to visual and/or auditory stimuli were made at 6 weeks and 3 months in a laboratory setting. At 3 months, each infant was administered the Bayley Scale of Mental Development. There were no differences in maternal attitudes and feelings between the two groups of mothers prior to the birth. However, significant differences appeared after birth and indicated increased anxiety in mothers of preterm infants. Significantly more 6-week-old preterm infants were perceived by their mothers as irritable and to cry more than fullterm infants. At the age of 3 months, both groups of infants differed only in terms of irritability. Differences between the two groups of mother–infant dyads, age-related changes in these differences and relationships between maternal evaluations and the laboratory-based assessments are discussed in the context of contrasts in the stability of behavioural regulation in preterm and fullterm infants.     

留守初中生同伴侵害与攻击性的关系:链式多重中介模型

为探究留守初中生同伴侵害与攻击性的关系机制,通过构建链式多重中介模型,考察歧视知觉、孤独感和心理韧性在二者关系中的多重中介效应。采用问卷调查法对519名留守初中生进行调查,结果显示：（1）留守初中生同伴侵害的发生率为96.3%,具有普遍性;（2）留守初中生同伴侵害、歧视知觉、孤独感、心理韧性与攻击性之间均呈显著相关;（3）留守初中生的歧视知觉、孤独感和心理韧性在其同伴侵害与攻击性的关系中具有链式多重中介作用;（4）同伴侵害与攻击性关系模型具有一定稳定性,同时在是否留守及单亲与双亲外出留守初中生群体中存在显著差异。研究结果揭示了同伴侵害与攻击性的关系机制,可为探索留守初中生不良同伴关系的教育策略提供参考。     

Human factors evaluation of an in-vehicle active traffic and demand management (ATDM) system

This research study focused on the evaluation of an emulated in-vehicle Active Traffic and Demand Management (ATDM) system on Interstate 66 in Northern Virginia. Traditional ATDM systems rely on infrastructure-mounted variable message signs (VMS) to provide information (speed limits, lane availability, etc.) to the traveling public. By providing information about dynamic roadway conditions on an in-vehicle device, the ATDM may improve driving safety and performance by allowing drivers to remain consistently aware of forthcoming traffic conditions and roadway requirements; even when external signage is inaccessible. This study represents an initial investigation of an emulated in-vehicle ATDM to provide developers with design guidance and ensure that unintended consequences, such as distraction, do not undermine the potential benefits.Twenty younger and 20 older participants, accompanied by a member of the research team, experienced the following ATDM features on an in-vehicle device (IVD) mounted to the dashboard: (1) dynamic speed limits, (2) dynamic lane use/shoulder control, (3) High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) restrictions, and (4) roadway information from variable message signs. The IVD was equipped with auditory and visual alerts notifying the driver when relevant visual information was updated. Research questions addressed distraction and driver behavior associated with use of the system. Qualitative and quantitative participant data was acquired from the instrumented vehicle, various questionnaires, and researcher observation.Several key findings were uncovered: (1) The IVD, as tested, did not warrant classification as a source of distraction according to the NHTSA guidelines; v2) There was a significant difference in eye-glance durations to the IVD when comparing the VMS alerts to both the speed limit and lane management alerts; and (3) The speed limit alert motivated participants to alter their speed (per survey results and participant speed data).