Eye-tracking the cancellation and focus model for preference judgments

By means of a relatively new eye-tracking method that allows for a test situation much closer to reality, we recorded and examined gaze time and fixation number within the cancellation and focus paradigm, a feature-matching model for preference judgments between two alternatives. In line with the cancellation and focus model we found that when subjects encountered the second option in each pair, shared features were canceled out and thus given less consideration whereas unique features were focused on more. We also investigated the role of feature attractiveness as a second important factor in preference judgments and found a U-shaped relationship between attractiveness and visual consideration intensity; that is, attractive and unattractive features received more attention than did those of intermediate attractiveness. Finally, we tested the ability of two models, Franklin’s rule and the WReSt (Weighted Recalled Stepwise Comparing) heuristic, to predict the preference ratings.     

Uniform Test Assembly

In educational practice, a test assembly problem is formulated as a system of inequalities induced by test specifications. Each solution to the system is a test, represented by a 0–1 vector, where each element corresponds to an item included (1) or not included (0) into the test. Therefore, the size of a 0–1 vector equals the number of items n in a given item pool. All solutions form a feasible set—a subset of 2 ⁿ vertices of the unit cube in an n-dimensional vector space. Test assembly is uniform if each test from the feasible set has an equal probability of being assembled. This paper demonstrates several important applications of uniform test assembly for educational practice. Based on Slepian’s inequality, a binary program was analytically studied as a candidate for uniform test assembly. The results of this study establish a connection between combinatorial optimization and probability inequalities. They identify combinatorial properties of the feasible set that control the uniformity of the binary programming test assembly. Computer experiments illustrating the concepts of this paper are presented.     

De Finetti’s No-Dutch-Book Criterion for Gödel logic

We extend de Finetti’s No-Dutch-Book Criterion to Gödel infinite-valued propositional logic.     

Suszko’s Thesis,Inferential Many-valuedness,and the Notion of a Logical System

According to Suszko’s Thesis, there are but two logical values, true and false. In this paper, R. Suszko’s, G. Malinowski’s, and M. Tsuji’s analyses of logical twovaluedness are critically discussed. Another analysis is presented, which favors a notion of a logical system as encompassing possibly more than one consequence relation.

[13, p. 281]

Presented by Jacek Malinowski     

The Humean problem of induction and Carroll’s Paradox

Hume argued that inductive inferences do not have rational justification. My aim is to reject Hume’s argument. The discussion is partly motivated by an analogy with Carroll’s Paradox, which concerns deductive inferences. A first radically externalist reply to Hume (defended by Dauer and Van Cleve) is that justified inductive inferences do not require the subject to know that nature is uniform, though the uniformity of nature is a necessary condition for having the justification. But then the subject does not have reasons for believing what she believes. I defend a moderate externalist account that seeks to partly accommodate that objection to the radical externalist proposal. It is based on an extension of Peacocke’s theory of concepts: possession conditions for predicative concepts standing for natural properties include (fallible) dispositions to project them to new cases in accordance with inductive inferential patterns.

Killing Baby Suzy

In her (1996) Kadri Vihvelin argues that autoinfanticide is nomologically impossible and so that there is no sense in which time travelers are able to commit it. In response, Theodore Sider (2002) defends the original Lewisian verdict (Lewis 1976) whereby, on a common understanding of ability, time travelers are able to kill their earlier selves and their failure to do so is merely coincidental. This paper constitutes a critical note on arguments put forward by both Sider and Vihvelin. I argue that although Sider’s criticism starts out promisingly he doesn’t succeed in establishing that Vihvelin’s analysis fails, because (a) he neglects to rule out a class of counterfactuals to which Vihvelin’s sample-case may belong; and (b) (together with Lewis) he is wrong to suggest that future facts are irrelevant in the evaluation of time travelers’ abilities. I show instead that Vihvelin’s argument is viciously circular, indicating that even if there are nomological constraints on autoinfanticide these cannot be established a priori.

Cortisol and Children’s Adjustment: The Moderating Role of Sympathetic Nervous System Activity

We examined relations among cortisol, markers of sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activity (including salivary alpha-amylase and skin conductance level), and children's adjustment. We also tested the Bauer et al. (Journal of Developmental and Behavioral Pediatrics, 23(2), 102-113, 2002) hypothesis that interactions between the SNS and cortisol would be associated with internalizing and externalizing problems. Saliva samples were obtained from 8- to 9-year-olds before and after a laboratory assessment battery, and were assayed for cortisol and alpha-amylase (sAA). Basal skin conductance level (SCL) was measured during resting conditions. Parents reported on child adjustment. Interactions between basal SNS and cortisol levels explained moderate amounts of unique variance in children's externalizing and internalizing problems. More specifically, higher basal cortisol levels were positively associated with higher internalizing and externalizing problems among children with higher SNS activity, as compared to children with lower SNS activity. Findings underscore the utility of including information about the coordination between hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) and SNS activity in biosocial models of atypical child development.     

Trust in organismic development, autonomy support, and adaptation among mothers and their children

The current studies examined relations between mothers’ trust in organismic development, autonomy supportive parenting, and adaptation among mothers and their young children. Study 1 showed that trust in organismic development was distinct from optimism, neuroticism, and social desirability whereas it correlated with having relaxed expectations for developmental milestones and making fewer social comparisons about one’s child. Study 2 used observational methods to demonstrate a significant link between trust in organismic development and mothers behaving in an autonomy-supportive rather than controlling manner toward their 1-year-old child during puzzle solving activities. Study 3 used a 1 year prospective design to show that trust in first time mothers was associated with better maternal and child adaptation over time, controlling for initial levels of adaptation and child temperament. Study 4 explored possible social/political antecedents of trust in organismic development by comparing the beliefs of first time mothers from Canada and Norway. The four studies suggest that trust in organismic development fosters autonomy supportive parenting practices and positive maternal and child adaptation. These findings are discussed from the perspective of self-determination theory.

Choosing an Endorser for a Women’s Sporting Event: The Interaction of Attractiveness and Expertise

An experimental study was conducted to determine the impact of expertise and attractiveness on perceived appropriateness of the endorser with a women’s tennis event and, subsequently, attitudes towards the event and intentions to purchase tickets. The sample was comprised of 184 undergraduate students at three U.S. universities. Hypotheses were tested through observed path analysis and results indicated both attractiveness and expertise were significantly related to the endorser’s appropriateness and explained 24% of the variance. However, there was a significant interaction; in the lower expertise condition, the more attractive athlete was rated as a more appropriate endorser. Further, endorser appropriateness led to more positive attitudes and intentions to purchase tickets, and the model explained 13 and 48% of the variance in these variables respectively.     

热手谬误？赌徒谬误？ ——随机序列知觉中近因效应的格式塔现象研究

通过两个实验来探讨随机序列中的近因效应。在实验1中,采用传统实验范式,让被试进行一系列的抛掷硬币结果的猜测并给予反馈,结果发现：（1）在最近连续几次硬币呈现的结果不同时,人们通常把各个结果分别作为独立的单元来看待,大部分情况下做出随机性的预期;（2）在最近连续几次硬币呈现的结果相同时,人们通常把连续几次相同的结果作为一个认知单元来看待,在最近猜测对错两种情况下分别出现了截然相反的两种近因效应。当最近1次猜对时,对下一结果的预期出现正近因效应即热手谬误,但是最近几次连续猜对时谬误减少乃至消失;当最近1次猜错时,对下一结果的预期出现负近因效应即赌徒谬误,并且最近几次连续猜错时负近因效应并未受到太大影响。实验2在实验1范式的基础上,把硬币抛掷的结果人为分组,发现被试对每一组的第一个结果做出预期时,实验1中的各种效应均消失,该现象支持关于随机序列知觉的“格式塔理论”。