The role of overt and covert self-rules in establishing a daily living skill in adults with mild developmental disabilities

The purpose of the current study was to explore the use of overt and covert self-rules in the acquisition, maintenance, and generalization of a chained task by adults with mild developmental disabilities. This research differed from previous research in that the experimenter did not deliver reinforcement for correct responses during training, and we examined the correspondence between each self-rule statement and each subsequent response on each trial. Results showed that the self-rules participated in control over participants' responding, in that the skill was acquired and shown to generalize in the absence of experimenter-delivered reinforcement. Moreover, performance was shown to deteriorate when the emission of overt, but not covert, self-rules was blocked.     

Peak-End rule versus average utility: How utility aggregation affects evaluations of experiences

The “Peak-End rule” which averages only the most extreme (Peak) and the final (End) impressions, is often a better predictor of overall evaluations of experiences than average impressions. We investigate the similarity between the evaluations of experiences based on Peak-End and average impressions. We show that the use of the Peak-End rule in cross-experience comparisons can be compatible with preferences for experiences that are better on average. Two conditions are shown to make rankings of experiences similar regardless of the aggregation rule: (i) the individual heterogeneity in the perception of stimuli, and (ii) the persistence in impressions. We describe their effects theoretically, and obtain empirical estimates using data from previous research. Higher estimates are shown to increase correlational measures of association between the Peak-End and average impressions. The high association per se is shown to be not only a theoretical possibility, but an empirical fact.     

意见收敛定理与休谟问题

意见收敛定理是主观主义概率论的一条重要定理,它表明随着证据的增加,验前概率的主观性将被验后概率的客观性所代替。意见收敛定理被看作主观概率的动态合理性原则,因而被用来解决休谟问题,即归纳合理性问题。然而,哈金有说服力地表明,意见收敛定理证明的是条件概率Pr（h／e）的收敛,而不是验后概率Pre（h）的收敛。主观主义概率论暗中接受的一个等式是：Pre（h）=Pr（h／e）,通常称之为“条件化规则”。这样,归纳法的合理性问题变成条件化规则的合理性问题。为此,本文提出一个新的合理性原则,即“最少初始概率原则”,将它同“局部合理性”观念结合起来便可为条件化规则的合理性加以辩护。     

老年疾病按病种付费研究

以沧州市7所医疗机构的290名住院患者的医疗费用为研究对象,利用统计学中的中位数和P25和P75两个百分位数测算出了医疗费用的平均水平、参考值范围,利用逐步回归分析探索住院费用的影响因素。应根据年龄、住院天数、入院时情况等是影响住院费用的关键因素开发DRGS付费系统;采取必要的措施降低住院天数和术前住院天数。     

Nodal structure and the partitioning of equivalence classes

By definition, all of the stimuli in an equivalence class have to be functionally interchangeable with each other. The present experiment, however, demonstrated that this was not the case when using post-class-formation dual-option response transfer tests. With college students, two 4-node 6-member equivalence classes with nodal structures of A-->B-->C-->D-->E-->F were produced by training AB, BC, CD, DE, and EF. Then, unique responses were trained to the C and D stimuli in each class. The responses trained to C generalized to B and A, while the responses trained to D generalized to E and F. Thus, each 4-node 6-member equivalence class was bifurcated into two 3-member functional classes: A-->B-->C and D-->E-->F, with class membership precisely predicted by nodal structure. A final emergent relations test documented the intactness of the underlying 4-node 6-member equivalence classes. The coexistence of the interchangeability of stimuli in an equivalence class and the bifurcation of such a class in terms of nodal structure was explained in the following manner. The conditional discriminations that are used to establish a class also imposes a nodal structure on the stimuli in the class. Thus, the stimuli in the class acquire two sets of relational properties. If the format of a test trial allows only one response option per class, responding on those trials will be in accordance with class membership and will not express the effects of nodal distance. If the format of a test trial allows more than one response option per class, responding on those trials will be determined by the nodal structure of the class. Thus, the relational properties expressed by the stimuli in an equivalence class are determined by the discriminative function served by the format of a test trial.     

Sleeping beauty and the dynamics of de se beliefs

This paper examines three accounts of the sleeping beauty case: an account proposed by Adam Elga, an account proposed by David Lewis, and a third account defended in this paper. It provides two reasons for preferring the third account. First, this account does a good job of capturing the temporal continuity of our beliefs, while the accounts favored by Elga and Lewis do not. Second, Elga’s and Lewis’ treatments of the sleeping beauty case lead to highly counterintuitive consequences. The proposed account also leads to counterintuitive consequences, but they’re not as bad as those of Elga’s account, and no worse than those of Lewis’ account.

肢体严重毁损伤保留与否的循证思考

肢体严重毁损伤的修复是当今医学领域的一个研究热点。从循证医学角度对肢体严重毁损伤的保肢与截肢提出思考并加以阐述,同时结合当前我国医疗环境提出一些这方面的倡议。     

理性看待微创外科

所谓“微创”,乃是传统外科发展的伸延和提升。微创不等于无创,微创需要科学的决策,同时微创要运用循证医学。微创具有广阔的前景,但它的治疗之路依然很长。它需要进一步的完善。目前,还不是丰收的季节。     

Calibration accuracy of a judgmental process that predicts the commercial success of new product ideas

We examine the accuracy of forecasts of the commercial potential of new product ideas by experts at an Inventor's Assistance Program (IAP). Each idea is evaluated in terms of 37 attributes or cues, which are subjectively rated and intuitively combined by an IAP expert to arrive at a forecast of the idea's commercialization prospects. Data regarding actual commercialization outcomes for 559 new product ideas were collected to examine the accuracy of the IAP forecasts. The intensive evaluation of each idea conducted by the IAP produces forecasts that accurately rank order the ideas in terms of their probability of commercialization. The focus of the evaluation process on case‐specific evidence that distinguishes one idea from another, however, and the corresponding neglect of aggregate considerations such as the base rate (BR) and predictability of commercialization for new product ideas in general, yields forecasts that are systematically miscalibrated in terms of their correspondence to the actual probability of commercialization. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

循证医学与靶向治疗——心血管病治疗前沿领域的辩证思考

循证医学与靶向治疗均透露着哲学的智慧,体现着哲学思想。循证医学符合现代医学科学性、先进性、系统性要求,集中体现了科学的医学认识论和实践观：靶向冶疗理论认为疾病的产生有具体的原因,最好的治疗是从病因学的角度,从基因蛋白的水平找准靶点进行治疗,靶向治疗理论贯穿了唯物主义可知论的观点。在心血管病治疗的临床实践中我们应当将循证医学与靶向治疗两者有机地统一,通过优势互补,取长补短,弥补两种方法各自的不足,发扬其长处,共同促进心血管病治疗学的发展。