An impossibility theorem for verisimilitude

In this paper, we show that Arrow’s well-known impossibility theorem is instrumental in bringing the ongoing discussion about verisimilitude to a more general level of abstraction. After some preparatory technical steps, we show that Arrow’s requirements for voting procedures in social choice are also natural desiderata for a general verisimilitude definition that places content and likeness considerations on the same footing. Our main result states that no qualitative unifying procedure of a functional form can simultaneously satisfy the requirements of Unanimity, Independence of irrelevant alternatives and Non-dictatorship at the level of sentence variables. By giving a formal account of the incompatibility of the considerations of content and likeness, our impossibility result makes it possible to systematize the discussion about verisimilitude, and to understand it in more general terms.     

Predicting Affective Responses to Unexpected Outcomes

In decisions under uncertainty, decision makers confront two uncertainties: the uncertain linkage between actions and outcomes and the uncertain linkage between these outcomes and his or her affective responses to them. The two studies reported here examine affective responses to expected and unexpected outcomes in various settings. In Study 1, a scenario-based laboratory experiment (N = 149), we examined subjects' predicted responses to a range of outcomes, as a function of how surprising the outcome was. Study 2, a field study (N = 127), involved the expectations of bowlers about their scores in an upcoming game and about their responses to various outcomes at, above, and below expectations. We also measured actual affective reactions after the bowlers had completed their games. Findings suggest that subjects both expect and experience a loss-averse, expectation-based value function broadly of the Prospect Theory type. They also anticipate, and experience, an amplifying effect of outcome surprise, though they underestimate its size. We argue that such underestimation, together with overtight prediction ranges, may expose subjects to much larger affective variation with outcome variability than they anticipate.     

Impact of Co-Therapy Teams on Client Outcomes and Therapist Training in Marriage and Family Therapy

This study of 33 student therapists, 402 client systems, and three supervisors tested the efficacy of using student co-therapy teams as an aspect of clinical training in a marriage and family therapy program. This study utilizes both quantitative and qualitative methodology. Two research questions were addressed: “Do different pairings of co-therapists affect client outcomes?” and “Is co-therapy a viable option for a training program?” The results indicate that client outcomes using co-therapy are at least as effective as treatment using one therapist and in some circumstances produce more positive outcomes for both clients and student therapists.     

青少年结果预期与评价的ERP研究

大脑不断地对环境事件产生预期并将这些预期与实际结果进行比较, 通过对反馈刺激的结果评价以优化后续行为。采用抽奖式赌博任务范式, 操纵得奖的确定性程度, 利用事件相关电位技术(ERP), 研究青少年结果预期与评价的认知和神经电生理过程, 以成人作为对照组进行比较分析。研究结果表明：(1)在反映自动、快速结果评价的FRN上, 无论在高确定性还是在低确定性条件下, 青少年与成人均未表现出显著性差异; (2)组别与确定性程度在P300波幅上表现交互作用显著, 简单效应分析表明, 在高确定性条件下, 青少年组输、赢的P300波幅表现出差异; 而成人组输、赢的P300波幅无显著性差异。青少年对反馈刺激自动的快速结果评价能力已接近成人水平, 而对反馈刺激功能意义评价的控制加工能力还未发展成熟。     

Recognition failure of recallable words: problems of mathematical constraint and dependence

The graph space of P ( RN | RL ) vs. P ( RN ), probabilities of recognition given recall and overall recognition, is the setting for the Tulving-Wiseman (TW) function of recognition failure research. According to Hintzman (1991, 1992), the moderate scatter of data points about the TW curve is an artefactual regularity caused by a mathematical constraint when P ( RN ) < P ( RL ). However, both constrained and unconstrained (when P ( RN ) ≥ P ( RL )) points conform equally well to the TW function, consistent with the unobserved fact that the location of both kinds of points is determined by the same mathematical rule. Hintzman's claim that there is no regularity in the data plot when P ( RN ) < P ( RL ) other than that produced by the constraint is not supported by this study. He based his claim on an incorrect use of the measure of dependence (association) called gamma. The graph space corresponding to gamma is that of P ( RN | RL ) vs. P ( RN | nRL ), as shown by using the Bayes function (Bayes' theorem). The margin-free measure gamma is a function of two thetas, theta being a margin-sensitive measure of dependence that is the parameter of the Bayes function. The variance of gamma reflects the fact that it is compounded of the theta variances, so a margin-free measure is obtained at the expense of greater variability.     

影响被告人供述的因素及其对策的研究

以１９５名执法人员和１８５名服刑犯人为被试,采用问卷法研究了影响被告人供述的因素以及相应的对策建议。结果表明：（１）有１０种因素被认为对被告人未能形成供述动机有影响作用,有９种因素被认为对被告人形成如实供述动机有影响作用,其中,执法人员所认为的影响作用基本上都比服刑犯人所认为的要大,同时,双方具有各自的倾向性;（２）有１５种因素被认为对愿意供述的被告人未能如实供述可能存在影响作用,其中６种因素确实有一定的影响;（３）有９种对策被普遍认为对解决被告人不愿供述问题有效,有１０种对策被认为对解决愿意供述的被告人未能如实供述的问题有效,同时,执法人员和服刑犯人在关于对策有效性的评价上具有互补性。     

Family therapy and outcome: Relationships between therapist and family styles

This study examined therapeutic outcome for a group of 175 clinic families divided into levels of family competence and style, and, later, into seven clinical groupings. The division into these groups was based on the level of rated Competence and Style determined by using the Beavers Systems Model. Therapists also rated their level of Openness/Sharing Strategy, Power Differential, and Partnership with the family at the third session. Results indicate that more competent families who fared well in therapy had therapists who formed a partnership, disclosed strategy, and employed a minimal power differential with the family. The most disturbed families, and those with a Centrifugal style, did better with therapists employing a high power differential and lower levels of openness and partnership. The study also presented the distribution of individual diagnoses by family groups. Implications for family therapists, including the value of family assessment, are provided.     

The contribution of feedback to outcome in long-term group psychotherapy

Two long-term analytic inpatient psychotherapy groups, comprised of severely disturbed neurotic and personality disordered patients, were intensively investigated using process ratings and therapist and patient reports to examine the contribution of interpersonal feedback to treatment outcome. We found that feedback was important throughout the course of therapy, and that patients who derived the most benefit from the groups were those who experienced a greater level of group cohesiveness and were most active in terms of self-disclosure, receipt of feedback, and making significant behavioral modifications within treatment. These successful patients received both positive and negative feedback, primarily from other group members, and worked effectively toward the goals that brought them to treatment.     

The Influence of Posttreatment Mutual Help Group Participation on the Friendship Networks of Substance Abuse Patients

The effect of 12-step mutual help groups (e.g., Narcotics Anonymous) on members' friendship networks has received little attention. This 1-year longitudinal study examined such effects in a sample of 2,337 male substance abuse inpatients, 57.7% of whom became significantly involved in 12-step activities (e.g., reading program literature, attending meetings) after treatment. An a priori model of the interplay of 12-step involvement and friendship networks was tested using structural equation modeling, and found to have excellent fit to the data. Twelve-step group involvement after treatment predicted better general friendship characteristics (e.g., number of close friends) and substance abuse-specific friendship characteristics (e.g., proportion of friends who abstain from drugs and alcohol) at follow-up. Results are discussed in terms of how mutual help group involvement benefits patients and how the self-help group evaluation paradigm should be broadened.