Choice in the repeated-gambles experiment

Humans chose 10 times between two roulette wheels projected on a monitor. During the first trial, the left wheel provided a hypothetical $100 with p = .94, and the right wheel provided $250 with p = .39. A titration procedure adjusted the probability of a $250 win across trials to permit estimation of an indifference point between alternatives. In Experiment 1, intertrial-interval duration (25 vs. 90 s) and whether sessions began with an intertrial interval or a trial were varied in a 2 × 2 design in this risky-choice procedure. Risk aversion (preference for the $100 wheel) increased with intertrial interval but was unaffected by whether sessions began with a trial or an intertrial interval. In Experiment 2, all sessions began with a trial, and subjects were informed that the experiment ended after 10 trials. Intertrial-interval duration had no effect on choice. In Experiment 3, intertrial-interval duration and whether subjects were given $10 or $10,000 before beginning were varied among four groups in a 2 × 2 design. In all other ways, the procedure was unchanged from Experiment 2. Intertrial interval had no effect on choice, but the $10,000 groups showed less risk aversion than the $10 groups. These results can be explained more readily in terms of Kahneman and Tversky's (1984) notion of “framing of the prospect” than in terms of Rachlin, Logue, Gibbon, and Frankel's (1986) behavioral account of risky choice.     

Eyes on the Prize? Evidence of Diminishing Attention to Experienced and Foregone Outcomes in Repeated Experiential Choice

Recently, there has been increased interest in decisions‐from‐experience (where decision makers learn from observing the outcomes of previous choices), which provide valuable insights into the learning and preference construction processes underlying many daily decisions. Several process models have been developed to capture these processes, and while such models often fit the data well, many assume that the decision maker is a vigilant observer, processing each outcome. In two studies, we provide a critical test of this assumption using eye tracking to record directed visual attention when participants choose repeatedly among two options, each time being shown the outcome for their chosen option and for the foregone option. Consistently, we find that the vigilance assumption is not supported, with decision makers often not attending to outcome information. Moreover, (in)attention to outcomes is predictable, with vigilance decreasing as more choices are made, and being greater for obtained than for foregone outcomes, and when options deliver only gains as opposed to losses or a mixture of gains and losses. Furthermore, we find that this variation in attentional allocation plays a central role in the apparent indecisiveness (inconsistency) in choice, with increased attention to foregone outcomes predicting switches to that option on the next choice. Together, these findings highlight the value of eye tracking in investigations of decisions‐from‐experience, providing novel insight into the cognitive processes underlying them. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

风险决策任务的内部表征

通过综合分析风险决策任务内部表征的性质、特点、类型、形成规则及其重要的相关研究,认为风险决策的关键是正确合理的内部表征;决策者关于风险决策任务的内部表征、自我表征、情境表征与对手表征共同构成的决策表征系统及其有关的知识结构是决策空间的核心部分,应当成为风险决策研究的重要课题。     

Evaluation of job candidates with missing information: Effects of attribute importance and interattribute correlation

How do people make evaluations when important items of information are missing? In the context of personnel evaluations or product evaluations, researchers have proposed that decision makers may predict the missing attribute based on its assumed relationship to attributes that are present. In addition, some researchers have suggested that there is a penalty for missing information. An experiment was conducted to investigate the influence of the importance of the missing attribute on the hypothesized inference effect. Hypothetical job candidates were evaluated based on one or two attributes. The correlation between the attributes was varied between groups of subjects as was the importance of one of the attributes. The pattern of ratings of candidates with missing information varied significantly with the correlation condition when the missing attribute was very important, but did not vary as much when the missing attribute was less important. The results were generally consistent with the predictions of the Inferred Information Model (Johnson and Levin, 1985). On average, candidates with missing information were rated lower than comparable candidates with complete information and the missing attribute at an average level.     

Caveats on a process-tracing measure and a remedy

In process-tracing studies, a frequently used index describes whether information selection behavior is attribute — or alternativewise. The performance of this index is investigated under the assumption that subjects select information in a random fashion. The results show that the index may lead to inaccurate conclusions regarding the information-acquisition strategy of a subject. In addition, a Monte Carlo study is conducted that examines the sensitivity of the index to strategy changes. An alternative index is derived and a latent-class model is proposed for a parsimonious representation of individual differences in information acquisition.     

高校心理咨询师多重关系情境与决策类型的研究

为探索高校咨询师面临的多重关系伦理情境、决策过程,对访谈17名高校心理咨询师的资料进行分析。结果：常见情境主要包括接送礼物承载的新关系、来访者和咨询师除咨询关系外的师生关系、咨询师与和来访者有关的第三人有关系、咨询师在咨询室之外的场所偶遇来访者、来访者有咨询师的联系方式、来访者和咨询师有身体接触等。决策表现为两种：经验主导型,决策时未意识到处于伦理情境只凭经验决策;伦理主导型,决策时意识到处在伦理情境。结论：高校心理咨询存在一些特殊多重关系,心理咨询师需增加具有伦理意识的决策。     

What if I am the one? Measuring individual differences in emotional sensitivity to probability and emotional reactivity to possibility

Current theories of risk perception point to the powerful role of emotion and the neglect of probabilistic information in the face of risk, but these tendencies differ across individuals. We propose a method for measuring individuals' emotional sensitivity to probability to assess how feelings about probabilities, rather than the probabilities themselves, influence decisions. Participants gave affective ratings (worry or excitement) to 14 risky events, each with a specified probability ranging from 1 in 10 to 1 in 10,000,000. For each participant, we regressed these emotional responses against item probabilities, estimating a slope (the degree to which emotional responses change with probability) and an intercept (the emotional reaction to an event with a fixed probability). These two parameters were treated as individual difference scores and included in models predicting reactions to several health risk scenarios. Both emotional sensitivity to probability (slope) and emotional reactivity to possibility (intercept) significantly predicted responses to these scenarios, above and beyond the predictive power of other well‐established individual difference measures.     

Personality types and risky health behaviors in Norwegian students

Typological research has received increasing interest in recent years, but is still regarded as substandard by personality psychologists. The current investigation shows how a typological approach can enhance our understanding of the influence of personality on risky health behaviors. We focused on Torgersen's eight personality types that represent unique configurations of high and low Extraversion, Neuroticism, and Constraint (Vollrath & Torgersen, 2000). Participants were 606 Norwegian university students. Measures assessed personality factors, smoking, abuse of drugs and alcohol, drunk driving, and risky sexual behaviors. Results replicated earlier research showing that types combining either high Extraversion and low Constraint (Hedonists, Impulsives) or high Neuroticism and low Constraint (Insecures) engage in more risky health behaviors. The discussion focuses on demonstrating that the study of types is a valuable supplement to the dimensional tradition in personality psychology.     

从风险决策中的多次博弈到单次博弈：量变还是质变?

诺贝尔经济学奖获得者Samuelson于1963年发现人们在单次和多次博弈条件下决策行为不一致。文章综述了两种博弈条件下人们决策行为的差异并质疑了这种差异的传统理论解释机制。描述或预测决策行为的风险决策理论其实只采用了一种评价法则—— 期望法则, 始终没有跳出“最大化”的窠臼。基于实验证据, 我们推测, 多次博弈时人们遵守了期望法则, 而单次博弈时人们所遵循的是非补偿性法则。从多次博弈到单次博弈, 不单单是一种博弈次数上的变化(量变), 而是代表了从期望法则(补偿性法则)到非补偿性法则两种策略之间的转变(质变)。最后, 文章介绍了单次、多次博弈问题在医疗、应急管理以及投资领域的体现, 并呼吁更多的研究者关注单次、多次博弈问题。