Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength (‘signal’) but critically on its reliability (‘noise’), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments has not been investigated before in the context of perceptual decisions. We studied subjective confidence reports in a multi-element perceptual task where evidence strength and reliability could be manipulated independently. Our results reveal a confidence paradox: confidence is higher for stimuli of lower reliability that are associated with a lower accuracy. We show that the subjects’ overconfidence in trials with unreliable evidence is caused by a reduced sensitivity to stimulus variability. Our results bridge between the investigation of miss-attributions of confidence in behavioral economics and the domain of simple perceptual decisions amenable to neuroscience research.     

Spousal influence on employees’ career paths in dual ladder systems: a dyadic model

ABSTRACT

This cross-sectional field study examines the influence of employee and spousal characteristics on employees’ career-related motivations in dual ladder systems. We go beyond “constraints-based” explanations of spousal influence and focus on the degree to which the spouse has aspirations for the focal employee’s career – referred to as spousal career aspirations. Using a dyadic study design, we tested a model that specifies the influence of both partners’ career salience and materialism on an employee’s motivation for a particular career path: as manager or technical specialist. According to survey responses from a matched sample of 207 employees and their spouses, the spouse’s career salience and materialism (the latter only for women) were associated with higher levels of spousal career aspirations. In turn, those employees whose spouses aspired for them to have a career were less motivated to obtain a specialist position. Employees’ own career salience was positively associated with their motivation for a managerial position and, in combination with high levels of spousal career aspirations, pulled employees away from a career on the technical ladder. Our results shed light on the family-relatedness of career decisions and have notable implications for dual ladder organizations.     

INCOMPLETE KNOWLEDGE AND THE CHANCES OF A CONSTRUCTIVE MASTERING

In spite of incomplete knowledge we are permanently forced to act in complex real-life situations. First, a modern concept of information, the non-trivial transition from information to knowledge, patterns of missing knowledge, and the concept of perspective notions are studied. The main sections review some guidelines for action under incomplete information. A modern view of the concepts of holism and wholeness reveals that (in contrast to some critics) general system theory does not require any metaphysical assumption or previously accepted worldview. The concepts of holism and wholeness, as well as general system theory, are well-founded, even under strict criteria.     

Persistent Problems in Systematic Psychology IV. Structural versus Functional Analysis

The purpose of this investigation was to determine the effect of iris color on critical flicker frequency (CFF). CFF thresholds were obtained on 56 male subjects between the ages of 18 and 25 divided into three groups on the basis of iris color (blue, green, and brown). The results indicate that iris color is a statistically significant factor in the determination of CFF (p < .05), though it was emphasized that the effect may have been due to the correlation between iris color and other ocular pigmentation. The blue-eyed group received the highest mean CFF and the brown-eyed group the lowest mean CFF with the mean CFF threshold of the green-eyed group falling between these values.     

Impact of alcohol on sexual decision making: Intentions to have unprotected sex

The impact of alcohol on intentions to have sex with a new partner and the antecedents of intentions were investigated in three studies (N = 139, 60, and 218, respectively). In all three studies, respondents were intoxicated or not intoxicated with alcohol and completed measures based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour in relation to having sex whilst imagining him- or her-self in the scenario. The scenario described unprotected sex between two individuals not in an existing relationship. Consistently across studies, intoxication had a significant effect on intentions for men but not for women. Also consistently across studies, affective attitudes were significantly stronger determinants of intentions for women than for men. Alcohol intoxication consistently moderated the impact of affective attitudes on intentions in women but not men, with greater intoxication associated with stronger impacts (Studies 1, 2, and 3). Implications for understanding the impacts of alcohol intoxication on sexual decision making in men and women are discussed.     

Numeracy as a Predictor of Adaptive Risky Decision Making

Numeracy or one's ability to appropriately process and use numerical information has been shown to be an important individual difference factor in decision making. The current study utilized a risky decision‐making task (called the “cups task”) in which choices are made to both earn and avoid losing hypothetical money. Critically, this design allowed investigators to examine numeracy‐related differences in adaptive decision‐making as measured by sensitivity to expected value (EV) differences over 54 paired‐choice trials—some in which it was advantageous to take a risk and some in which it was not. Results showed that in an undergraduate sample of 114 individuals, the less numerate took more risks and were less sensitive to varying EV levels than the more numerate, especially when it was disadvantageous to take a risk and when the choice involved a potential loss (rather than a gain). These results are consistent with a dual processing account in which the more numerate are much better than the less numerate at extracting the precise affective “gist” of the numerical information, which is then used to determine the goodness or badness of a particular choice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Revisiting the Gain–Loss Separability Assumption in Prospect Theory

A fundamental assumption of prospect theory is gain–loss separability (GLS)—the assertion that the overall utility of a prospect can be expressed as a function of the utilities of its positive and negative components. Violations of GLS may potentially limit the generalization of results from studies of single‐domain prospects to mixed prospects and systematically distort the predictions of the theory. Violations also have implications for how choices with positive and negative components should be presented to decision makers. Previous studies, using different elicitation methods, have documented different rates, and types, of systematic violations of GLS. We discuss the differences between two specific elicitation methods—binary choice and certainty equivalents—and report results of a new study of GLS using both methods and randomly generated prospects. We compare the extent and nature of GLS violations under the two elicitation methods using between‐subject and within‐subject analyses. We find (i) systematic violations of GLS under both methods, (ii) higher rates of violations under choice, (iii) higher sensitivity to the outcomes for the certainty equivalents, which is consistent with the predictions of the scale‐compatibility hypothesis, and (iv) different patterns of violations under the two methods, which are explained by method‐specific preferences. We discuss the psychological mechanisms underlying the findings and the implications for presenting information with gain and loss components. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategy Selection in Risky Choice: The Impact of Numeracy,Affect, and Cross‐Cultural Differences

Real‐world decisions often involve options with outcomes that are uncertain and trigger strong affect (e.g., side effects of a drug). Previous work suggests that when choosing among affect‐rich risky prospects, people are rather insensitive to probability information, potentially compromising decision quality. We modeled the strategies of less and more numerate participants in the United States and in Germany when choosing between affect‐rich prospects and between monetarily equivalent affect‐poor prospects. Using large probabilistic national samples (n = 1047 from the United States and Germany), Study 1 showed that compared with more numerate participants, less numerate participants chose the normatively better option (i.e., the one with the higher expected value) less often, guessed more often, and relied more on a simple risk‐minimizing strategy. U.S. participants—although less numerate—selected the normatively better option more frequently and were more consistent across affect‐rich and affect‐poor problems than the German participants. Using a targeted quota sample (n = 118 from Germany), Study 2 indicated that although both more and less numerate participants paid less attention to probability information in affect‐rich than in affect‐poor problems, the two numeracy groups relied on different outcome‐based heuristics: More numerate participants often followed the minimax heuristic, and less numerate participants the affect heuristic. The observed strategy differences suggest that attempts to improve decision‐making need to take into account individual differences in numeracy as well as cultural‐specific experiences in making trade‐offs. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.