企业新产品开发决策的不确定性和决策策略模拟实验研究

本文以企业新产品开发为决策内容,根据决策策略的规定性理论框架和先前调查所得决策案例,设计四种决策情景来代表四种不确定状态,通过５６名来自５个工厂的管理人员的现场模拟实验,着重研究这类决策的不确定性和决策策略之间关系。结果发现,在新产品开发的决策中,决策策略随不确定状态而改变;决策情景的不确定程度和决策策略没有严格的—一对应关系;在四类不确定决策情景下,都有管理人员采用混合型策略。这一发现同混合扫瞄策略观点和垃圾罐模型的思想相一致。并且,随着决策情景的不确定程度加大,决策时间逐渐延长。最后我们提出了应继续研究的课题。     

System and flexibility in law

Usually, rhetoric is supposed to provide a model of law which describes legal interactions as volitive, arbitrary, and void of any system. However, the Mainz School, founded by Theodor Viehweg, proves the contrary: without referring to any metaphysics, such as consensus or auditoire universel, it seeks to discover the systematic character and the more or less flexible structures of legal rhetoric.     

算法决策趋避的过程动机理论

算法常用于决策, 但相较于由人类做出的决策, 即便内容相同, 算法决策更容易引起个体反应的分化, 此即算法决策趋避。趋近指个体认为算法的决策比人类的更加公平、含有更少的偏见和歧视、也更能信任和接受, 回避则与之相反。算法决策趋避的过程动机理论用以解释趋避现象, 归纳了人与算法交互所经历的原初行为互动、建立类社会关系和形成身份认同三个阶段, 阐述了各阶段中认知、关系和存在三种动机引发个体的趋避反应。未来研究可着眼于人性化知觉、群际感知对算法决策趋避的影响, 并以更社会性的视角来探究算法决策趋避的逆转过程和其他可能的心理动机。     

Navigating uncertainty in human social decision-making: Consequences and coping strategies

Uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of human social life. Based on fruitful findings, the current review aims to establish a schema that outlines the relationship between uncertainty and human social decision-making: the influences of uncertainty on social decision-making (mainly prosocial behaviors) and the strategies commonly employed to reduce social uncertainty. Human prosocial behaviors are modulated by both social and nonsocial uncertainty. Specifically, uncertainty decreases prosocial behaviors by providing moral wiggling room or promoting loss aversion but also helps maintain relationships by mitigating negative interactions. Moreover, impression formation, impression updating, and compliance with social norms are crucial strategies for coping with social uncertainty, but they are subject to various biases. Finally, we highlight some important issues that need to be addressed in future studies. In summary, the current review deepens our understanding of the role of uncertainty in social behaviors.     

Worth the risk? Fear of being single and willingness to make risky health decisions in sex and dating contexts

Does fear of being single (FOBS) predict risky health behaviors when such behavior could promote pursuit of a romantic connection? Study 1 tested general tendencies toward taking health risks associated with FOBS. Study 2 tested how those with stronger FOBS navigated romantic versus non-romantic risk behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. Study 3 extended the test of risky behavior beyond the pandemic to test whether FOBS was associated with willingness to engage in risky sexual behavior. Despite nonsignificant associations with taking health risks more generally, FOBS was associated with greater willingness to engage in risky behaviors in dating contexts, particularly when considering their willingness to settle for less in relationships. This research provides novel insight into dating choices associated with stronger FOBS and how willingness to settle predicts risky health behavior when it could appeal to romantic prospects.     

Development of clinical vignettes to assess healthcare decision-making capacity in elderly with mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease

IntroductionCognitive impairment can constrict healthcare decision-making capacity, as it affects the ability to understand, appreciate, and reason with information, as well as communication abilities. Therefore, decision-making capacity of elders with mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer's disease should be carefully assessed when patients are asked to make decisions regarding their health. Vignettes are particularly relevant to assess healthcare decision capacity, since they can come close to real life situations and improve statistical reliability of capacity assessment instruments.ObjectiveThis paper describes the construction and development process of three hypothetical vignettes, to be included in a new Portuguese assessment tool of healthcare decision-making capacity (CAI-Health).MethodFor vignettes’ development, examples from other assessment tools were first reviewed to summarize their text length, language complexity and health information contained. Most prevalent causes of mortality and morbidity in Portuguese elders were then identified, in order to select the health issues to include in CAI-Health’ vignettes. Seven vignettes were developed, and three were selected to be included in CAI-Health. After vignette's selection, these were reviewed by three experienced medical experts, during a focus group.ConclusionVignettes final version include cases of increased complexity, presenting situations of mild cognitive impairment, lung tumor and knee arthrosis.     

应激对风险和社会决策的影响

应激是有机体在受到真实或者潜在的威胁刺激时所表现出来的全身性非特异性反应, 伴随着紧张和焦虑的心理体验, 交感神经系统的兴奋, 糖皮质激素分泌的增多以及脑干−边缘系统−前额叶神经环路的改变。应激对个体在风险决策行为中的风险寻求和风险回避倾向, 社会决策行为中的利己和利他倾向都会产生重要影响。策略使用异常、习惯化和自动化反应增强、反馈学习过程以及奖惩敏感性的改变是应激影响决策行为的认知基础; 应激激素的分泌, 及杏仁核、前额叶等在决策过程发挥重要作用的脑区活动的改变则为应激作用于决策行为的神经基础。未来研究应重点关注：应激的个体差异与应激对决策影响效应多样性的关系; 综合多种指标对应激进行测量; 考察应激的时序效应; 揭示个体的最佳应激水平; 加强对慢性应激影响决策以及应激对决策影响效应可逆性的研究; 揭示应激影响决策的神经机制。     

青少年应激下皮质醇应答与风险决策相关性的性别差异

本研究旨在探讨中国青少年应激下皮质醇应答和风险决策相关性的性别差异。本研究以健康初中生为被试者, 采用特里尔社会应激测试(Trier Social Stress Test, TSST)诱发机体应激反应, 测试唾液皮质醇在应激前后不同时间段的水平, 并要求被试者在应激状态下完成气球模拟风险决策任务(Balloon Analogue Risk Task, BART)。结果发现, 男性在TSST诱导下皮质醇反应度显著高于女性, 男性中高皮质醇应答者BART表现为更高程度的冒险行为和更低的总奖励金额, 而女性中高皮质醇应答者BART表现为更高的总奖励金额。研究结果提示,中国青少年应激条件下皮质醇应答与风险决策之间的联系存在性别差异, 尤其在男性, 高皮质醇应答者更具有冒险行为。     

驾驶决策的研究现状与展望

驾驶决策是驾驶员对不同交通场景进行判断、选择,并产生驾驶行为的过程。驾驶决策的研究起源于人因工程学,并随着认知心理学的发展而逐渐受到关注。驾驶决策的研究范式主要采用心理测量与实验法;并与年龄、性别、风险感知、情绪以及决策风格相关;为了有效防止交通事故的发生,驾驶决策的改善逐步成为研究的新热点。今后的研究可以从认知与情绪角度综合探讨适合中国国情的驾驶决策的结构与特征,以提高驾驶员的决策能力。